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Roy Cooper and Noam Scheiber: We Gotta Rein Trump In

14 October 2026 at 21:53

Elon is now pitching in to help POTUS sabotage Ukraine while Trump makes a payout to Putin and works on his next self-enrichment scheme. A Cooper victory in North Carolina would be key to a potential Democratic Senate majority—a first step to reining in Trump—but the former governor warns Tim that Republicans have historically been undercounted in the polls and his lead should not be taken for granted. Plus: Scheiber in his recent book has the backstory on the radicalization of recent college grads, who tend to support the DSA and think America has too much power. And at a time when even white collar professionals identify with the working class, Trump's economic messaging sounds even more ridiculous.

Roy Cooper and New York Times reporter Noam Scheiber join Tim Miller.

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Trump Insiders Are Already Trashing the New Press Secretary

14 October 2026 at 02:03

If following all of this is making you feel like you’re losing your mind, join Bulwark+. We can’t make the news less insane, but we can help you make sense of it with smart people who haven’t lost the plot.

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Tim, Sarah, and JVL are back together for a super-sized, off-the-rails show. They wish Kimberly Guilfoyle well after she was forced out of the Trump administration, dig into the background of our new White House Press Secretary, discuss the DHS raid on Rep. Ilhan Omar's home, discuss the right-wing meltdown over James Talarico's absence from the campaign trail, and gloat about the GOP pulling resources out of some key House races.

Then, they go behind they paywall, and it REALLY gets fun: They watch Katie Zacharia's entire White House press briefing (all 15 minutes), and give their minute-by-minute commentary. Then: Sarah and JVL ask Tim whether he's reconsidered his stance on a take that got MANY Bulwark listeners mad a few months ago.

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Susan Rice: Vote Like Your Life Depends on It

13 October 2026 at 21:26

Americans are living in a more dangerous world now because of Donald Trump. Not only because of his now-expanding war in the Middle East, but also through his reckless advocacy of AI. And in his desperation over the midterms, he's cut a sinister deal with Putin, the very same man helping Iran to kill Americans. Rice tells Tim this is not the time to be complacent over the good polling numbers. Just go vote. Plus, Democratic strategist Jackie Rosa checks in from South Texas on the electoral landscape there and offers up some advice on how Dems should talk to Latino voters.

Susan Rice and Jackie Rosa join Tim Miller.

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Bill Kristol: The Paxton Nightmare Is Costing Republicans Big Time

12 October 2026 at 21:41

Not only did the lamest of October surprises blow up in the faces of Ken Paxton and the rightwing loons desperate to get Talarico on something, Greg Abbott is now in a tight race with his Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa. And all the money pouring in to prop up Paxton could be better spent on Senate races in Alaska and Kansas. This would be a great time for the Democratic Governors Association to steer (a lot) more funding Hinojosa's way.

Plus: Bill and Tim share their long shots, POTUS can't quit showing how much he's in the tank for Putin, MBS is finding out the hard way how the Trump family treats their business partners, don't be distracted by DHS's clownish authoritarianism in raiding Ilhan Omar's home, and the Iranian family that Tim has been advocating for is still in the Dilley detention center.

Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller.

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Jon Husted Is the Fakest Republican in America

10 October 2026 at 01:51

A quick note: We’re keeping this video free because every Ohio voter deserves to know who they’re voting for. If you have friends or family in Ohio, please send it to them. And if you believe this kind of reporting needs to reach as many people as possible, become a Bulwark member. Your support helps us keep telling these stories without putting them behind a paywall.

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Tim Miller takes a closer look at Ohio Senate candidate Jon Husted, whose carefully crafted moderate persona masks a record of corruption allegations, MAGA loyalty, and political opportunism. From his ties to Ohio’s utility scandal and donations from Jeffrey Epstein associate Les Wexner to his opposition to releasing the Epstein files, Husted has plenty of explaining to do.

Tim also examines Husted’s role in bringing data centers to Ohio, his support for the Iran war and Trump’s tariffs, his dismissive comments about people living in poverty, and his decision to hire a political director with a history of Nazi imagery and white nationalist associations. As Husted tries to appeal to both MAGA Republicans and swing voters, Tim makes the case for why Ohioans should reject his candidacy and send Sherrod Brown back to the Senate.

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Lauren Boebert Is in MAJOR Trouble (Derek Thompson & Adam Carlson)

9 October 2026 at 21:37

While the cult of Trump is dragging Republicans' popularity down, the Democrats have good, ideologically diverse candidates running all over the place. And voters aren't stupid: They know Trump's war and his tariffs are why prices are higher. But high-profile polling misses in recent years still haunt Dems, so Adam takes a deep dive into whether Republicans are doing better than the polls are showing. Plus: Derek explains how AI is making our lives more expensive and ponders why people behind AI think it's the most dangerous thing in the world yet still keep trying to build it as fast as possible. And no, AI does not have feelings.

Derek Thompson and Adam Carlson join Tim Miller for the weekend pod.

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Democrats Aren’t Winning Because They’re Brilliant. It’s Trump.

9 October 2026 at 03:05

Tim Miller, Sam Stein, and Democratic strategist Lis Smith join a live audience at Dartmouth for a spirited debate about Trump’s collapsing political fortunes, the GOP’s future under JD Vance, the Democrats’ struggle to rebuild their coalition, and the wide-open 2028 presidential race. Plus, a sobering question: What happens if Trump loses Congress and decides to go rogue?

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JD Vance Humiliates Himself Trying to Define "Socialism"

9 October 2026 at 02:13

Tim Miller gives his take on JD Vance’s fumbling attempt to define socialism and the hypocrisy at the heart of MAGA’s attacks on Democrats. Asked why socialist candidates are gaining ground across the country, Vance pivots to immigration and transgender athletes instead of explaining what socialism actually means.
But while Republicans warn that Democrats are bringing socialism to America, the Trump administration is expanding government control over the economy, intervening in private enterprise, and using the power of the state to target political enemies.

Tim explains why the administration’s own policies undermine its anti-socialist rhetoric, how Vance’s answer exposes the weakness of MAGA’s midterm message, and why the word games are more than just a political joke.

A quick note: The Bulwark doesn’t believe in phony balance that gives liars the benefit of the doubt or treats bad-faith arguments as legitimate debate. We call out the lies and explain what’s actually happening. If you value that kind of independent media, join Bulwark+ and help us keep doing it.

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Susan Glasser: Trump Has a Man Problem

8 October 2026 at 21:15

The king of the birther conspiracy knows he needs to round up the white male vote, so he's serving up one of his old faves—straight-up anti-Muslim bigotry. And he's added a new one: Making Americans pay for another political ad, this time about what a tough guy he is. But Trump also has another corruption problem, courtesy of Trump Jr.'s ex-fiancée, Amb. Kimberly Guilfoyle, who seems to have a habit of calling in very expensive favors. Plus: Rubio is laying the groundwork for 2028, Hegseth is lobbying to keep his job after the midterms, the Democratic establishment is coming together for El-Sayed, Bibi has been very bad for Israel, and Trump has created a long-term security crisis for the West as a result of his Iran war.

Susan Glasser joins Tim Miller.

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Angie Nixon: People Power

7 October 2026 at 20:58

Florida's Democratic nominee for the Senate says average Americans right now are living in the dreams of oligarchs and the super-rich, and it's time for regular people to live their own dreams. The progressive maverick promises to fight to help all Floridians—regardless of party—to be healthy, prosperous, and safe. And while Republicans like to point out Nixon's DSA affiliation, the Trump administration itself is acting socialist, while also sending immigrants back to countries like Cuba and Venezuela. Plus: Nixon weighs in on Vance's racist dog whistle, and Tim praises Troy Jackson's debate performance against Susan Collins—who seemed out of touch and was forced to play defense over Trump, the war, and the stupid tariffs.

Angie Nixon joins Tim Miller.

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Michael Lewis: Don't Bet Against the Country

6 October 2026 at 21:13

Destroying trust in the government is one of Trump's key sources of power, but Michael reports from the front lines of the deep state that there still are good employees serving the public interest. In his new book, Michael celebrates some of the heroes who either managed to survive DOGE—or were stupidly pushed out despite the vital roles they filled. And the absolute failures of DOGE raise serious questions about how Elon could be trusted to run any enterprise. Plus: Trump sure sounded like he was inviting Iran to bomb two big blue cities, and Republicans are rushing money to South Carolina and a very GOP district in Kentucky. Seems like Tim and Bill were onto something with their long-shot midterms picks on Monday.

Michael Lewis joins Tim Miller.

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Trump’s Corporate Enablers Should Be VERY Worried About 2027

6 October 2026 at 02:00

Tim Miller gives his take on the Democrats who are already arguing against investigating Donald Trump’s corporate allies, warning that accountability cannot be sacrificed in the name of avoiding political “retribution.” He argues that companies and executives who participated in or benefited from Trump’s corruption should face scrutiny, and that Democratic oversight in 2027 will be critical to uncovering what actually happened.

If Democrats want to restore the rule of law, he argues, they need to make clear that corruption has consequences, including for the powerful people and companies that helped enable Trump.

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Bill Kristol: Throw the Bums Out

5 October 2026 at 21:38

Like all good demagogues, Trump's appeal works when he's got someone to blame. But it's on his watch that we've got a war-related global food crisis brewing and mass layoffs in Ohio—where Trump just happened to hold a rally over the weekend. So, POTUS is focused on getting his family more money through a new bribery scheme while Republicans struggle to demonize Dems and throw away resources on Paxton. Plus: Bill and Tim share their new long shot picks (in South Carolina, Florida, and Kentucky), Thom Tillis is a coward and a weakling, online trolls claiming The Bulwark is trying to get Dems more hawkish on the war really ought to catch one of our podcasts, and Russia's got a worrisome plague outbreak.

Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller.

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Tim Miller Has a Blunt Message for People Who’ve Given Up

5 October 2026 at 06:05

A quick note: We thought Tim’s message was too important to put behind a paywall, so we’re making it free for everyone. If it speaks to you, please send it to someone who needs to hear it—especially someone feeling paralyzed by despair.

One more thing: Your support is what allows us to make work like this available to everyone. We strongly believe you can’t save democracy from behind a paywall. So if you’re able to support The Bulwark, Bulwark+ memberships are on sale right now for a limited time. Join us—and help us keep getting messages like this out into the world.

Tim Miller takes on Vivek Ramaswamy’s attempt to show off his strength at a campaign event, then turns to Jon Ossoff’s message to young voters about why they can’t afford to give in to despair and the case for turning frustration and rage into political action. Plus: Tim’s thoughts about James Baldwin and the long history of people overcoming seemingly impossible odds.

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Okay, What Is Going On With Trump’s Legs? (w/ Tommy Vietor)

2 October 2026 at 20:54

What is going on with Trump's legs? He appears to be wearing a brace and a recent video shows him standing in a most unnatural way—as though he is mid-exorcism. But his apparent health issues don't seem to be stopping the administration from re-escalating against Iran with an additional 10,000 troops on their way to the region. Meanwhile, Trump's son-in-law, Jared (AKA the point person on the Gaza peace deal) turns out to be a war profiteer heavily invested in Israeli bomb-making companies. Plus: Some of the recent polls have been too rosy for the Dems, Islamophobia may be at play in the Michigan Senate race, Tim makes the case for regime change in Eritrea, and the cabal of guys at the All-In podcast—who bought their access to Trump—are some of the loudest voices pushing for his all gas, no breaks approach to AI.

Tommy Vietor joins Tim Miller for the weekend pod.

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Josh Barro and Jonathan V. Last: The Patriotic Cowboys Wrecking Our Economy

1 October 2026 at 21:28

Finally, some accountability in Washington: Sen. Eric Schmitt’s general counsel and poster-holder is in career limbo after the infamous basketball mix-up in the Jack Smith hearing. And Americans seem to be holding Trump responsible for their economic frustrations—he’s below the Bush Line. Josh Barro explains: We’re not in a recession, but people feel stuck because borrowing costs are higher. Big budget deficits are inflationary, the president’s war of choice is making things worse, and our leaders don’t have a plan to deal with any of it. Plus, JVL explains why the markets are finally pricing in the risk of Trump’s war, and he and Tim discuss the weirdos running our government, Hegseth’s obsession with masculinity, and the importance of shame in a liberal democracy.

Josh Barro and Jonathan V. Last join Tim Miller.

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Maria Comella and The Trio: Holy Schmitt, That Was Bad

30 September 2026 at 22:02

The Trio comes together on the daily pod for the first time to give a little taste of the MAGA-land news Sam, Will, and Tim are covering for The Bulwark. The latest developments include speculation that Candace Owens may be a lesbian and that Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds pretended he was Jamaican. He may also have very poor judgment on financial matters. But first, Maria talks with Tim about Eric Schmitt and what may be the biggest self-own in the history of the Senate. Plus: Most of the media is still doing fake balance in favor of Trump, the pivotal scandal that knocked Chris Christie out as the 2016 frontrunner—and may have opened the door to you-know-who—and Tim shares details about a kiss he wanted but never got.

Ex-Christie aide Maria Comella and Trio members Sam Stein and Will Sommer join Tim Miller.

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More Democrats Who Can Win Red America

30 September 2026 at 18:53
(Photo illustration by Sarah Rogers/The Bulwark | Photos via candidates’ campaigns, Shutterstock)

AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOME STRETCH before the midterms, things are looking so good for Democrats that candidates once thought to be in tough races—like Roy Cooper and Jon Ossoff—can probably put their feet up and sip some boba tea (not you, Troy Jackson!). More and more long-shot candidates are in range of shocking upsets.

So, as promised, I wanted to provide an update to my list of Democratic candidates whom readers should consider supporting—with your votes, by volunteering, and through donations, if you are so inclined—between now and November 3.

Things were already looking good for Democrats when I put together the first list in June. But the national environment has only gotten better for the party since. The average national gas price has gone up about 10 percent, mortgage rates are over 7 percent, and 20-year Treasury yields are over 5 percent. We’re still at war in the Middle East, with no end in sight.

Republicans have no message on these key issues, so the map keeps expanding.

Hell, Bill Kristol said on the pod Monday that he thinks the Idaho Senate race is in play. Idaho! (Did you know the GOP nominee there is 83? Can you name both senators from Idaho?)

I’m not quite sure the map is going to expand that far. But there are a bunch of races once considered “solid Republican” that are now winnable.

In case you missed it the first time around, here’s a brief recap of how I picked these candidates:

  1. They had to be running in districts rated at least R+5 according to Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voter Index (PVI)—a calculation of the 2020 and 2024 presidential candidates’ performance in a given state or district compared to the national average. They also had to be from places where Democrats have generally struggled to win in the recent past. (There are a few exceptions, which I’ll explain.)

  2. The Democratic candidate had to be legit and either a) endorsed by someone I trust, or b) just caught Ansley’s and my attention because we like the cut of their jib.

  3. Bonus points if the Republican they’re running against is particularly disgusting.

For the most part, these are stretch races that have either flown under the national radar or gotten attention so late that national Democrats with big checkbooks have not sent the resources that could make a difference. They’re also races where I see reasons for Democrats to be optimistic—not total fantasies.

Let’s get to the list.

Bill Hill (AK-AL)

  • Cook rating: Likely R (R+6)

  • 2024 Result: Nick Begich (R): 51.2%, Mary Peltola (D): 48.8%

  • Bill Hill is a Native Alaskan, commercial fisherman, and former public school teacher and school superintendent running as an independent. This guy is so Alaska—he lives in a village with a population of 470. While he has the support of Alaska Democrats (one Democratic candidate who advanced through the primary dropped out and the other is incarcerated and believed to be a spoiler candidate), Hill hasn’t said which party he would caucus with if elected. That seems strategically sound if you’re running in Alaska.

  • Incumbent Republican Rep. Nick Begich is a Freedom Caucus member who’s been in lockstep with Trump on the Iran war, his efforts to rig the midterms, ending ACA subsidies, and hiding the Epstein files (until Trump flip-flopped and nearly all of the House Republicans voted to release them).

  • Tim’s Rationale: My hunch is that Generic MAGA Republican isn’t going to work this cycle. Particularly not in a place as independent-minded and heterodox as Alaska. Plus, if my conversation with Democratic Senate nominee Mary Peltola was any indication, support for the fishing industry may be a key issue in November. Hill seems well suited to the state, and it’s not hard to see Peltola having coattails.

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Eileen Laubacher (CO-04)

  • Cook rating: Solid R (R+9)

  • 2024 Result: Lauren Boebert (R): 53.6%, Trisha Calvarese (D): 42.0%

  • Eileen Laubacher is a third-generation Navy veteran and former intelligence officer who retired as a rear admiral after thirty-four years of service.

  • On the other hand, Boebert is probably one of the top-five craziest Republicans in the House—which is saying something. If her name rings a bell, it might be because you remember her wild theater antics, her ownership of a gun-themed restaurant where waitresses packed heat and customers got diarrhea, her allegation that Colorado schools have litter boxes for students who identify as cats, her messy divorce, or her general enthusiasm for conspiracy theories.

  • Tim’s Rationale: The 4th district is the most Republican seat in Colorado, so most people aren’t paying much attention to this one. But thanks to the horrific GOP gubernatorial nominee and some sneaky favorable redistricting, Colorado Democratic insiders are speculating that every seat could be in play. And Democrats have pined after this one for years. If it’s ever going to happen, this is the time.


Jessica Killin (CO-05)

  • Cook rating: Lean R (R+5)1

  • 2024 Result: Jeff Crank (R): 54.7%, River Gassen (D): 40.9%

  • Killin is a former U.S. Army paratrooper and military police officer whose second career in public service took her to staff roles on Capitol Hill and in the White House.

  • Killin is running against incumbent Republican Rep. Jeff Crank, whose important work to improve the lives of Coloradans includes introducing a resolution to “condemn socialism in all its forms.”

  • Tim’s Rationale: Killin is a solid candidate running against an uninspiring opponent in a district that has grown steadily more favorable to Democrats in the Trump era. The prospect of Colorado Springs–based Focus on the Family being represented by a Democrat is too delicious to pass on.


Pia Dandiya (FL-22)

  • Cook rating: Toss-up (R+4)

  • Because of a May 2026 redraw of Florida’s maps, this district is substantially different from any congressional district that existed in 2024.

  • Dandiya has an impressive background as an educator. She started her career as a teacher in low-income schools and founded a high school in Harlem for underprivileged students when she was just 28 years old. She’s young and talented and embracing the banner of “a new generation of leaders.”

  • The Republican nominee is Casey Askar, a businessman and former marine, who, despite the Trump administration’s growing unpopularity, continues to brag about being a “strong, loyal ally” of Trump.

  • Tim’s Rationale: While this race is (just barely) an exception to my at-least-R+5 rule, I can’t resist my desire for Ron DeSantis to experience some bad karma for his midcycle gerrymander of Florida’s maps. This district moved from D+4 to R+4 when it was redrawn, and even though it’s Florida, Democrats shouldn’t sleep on this pickup opportunity. A strong national environment and strong Democratic nominees at the top of the ticket who span the party’s ideological spectrum will present a delicious opportunity to stick it to Meatball Ron DeSanctimonious.

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Blake Gendebien (NY-21)

  • Cook rating: Likely R (R+10)

  • 2024 Result: Elise Stefanik (R): 62.1%, Paula Collins (D): 37.9%

  • Gendebien is a second-generation dairy farmer and family man who exudes normal-guy energy.

  • While Elise Stefanik isn’t running for re-election, the new Republican nominee is no improvement. Anthony Constantino is a businessman who has gone to great lengths to suck up to Trump, including putting a giant “VOTE FOR TRUMP” sign on the roof of his tallest factory building. Constantino’s flattery of Trump also extends to his side hustle as an aspiring rapper: His album, Thank You President Trump, features tracks such as “MAGA Again,” “Trump,” and “Art of the Deal.” It is . . . not great! (Go watch a recent Trio video to see the music videos.)

  • Tim’s Rationale: This is a stretch, but a recent poll of the district showed Trump’s approval–disapproval at 49 percent–49 percent, which is a challenge for a Trump sycophant like Constantino. Gendebien is a good candidate, and his opponent is certifiable. Plus I’d just love for Elise Stefanik to get run out of Washington and then be replaced by a Democrat.


Don Leonard (OH-15)

  • Cook rating: Likely R (R+5)

  • 2024 Result: Mike Carey (R): 56.5%, Adam Miller (D): 43.5%

  • Leonard is a former Ohio State professor of urban planning, and based on my conversations with him, he’s got a real passion for serving others and empowering his students. (He’s also a Tulane alumnus. Roll Wave!)

  • Republican incumbent Rep. Mike Carey is a former lobbyist for the coal industry, and one of his clients was an energy company involved in a “dark money” racketeering and bribery scandal. My biggest grievance, of course, is with his failure to stand up to the Trump administration’s attacks on the Haitian community of Springfield. Since his laudable vote to protect TPS back in April, Carey has been MIA on the issue, despite pleas from locals to intervene.

  • Tim’s Rationale: The Democrats at the top of the ticket in Ohio are strong candidates who may have long coattails, and a new poll suggests Leonard is running a strong race. Plus, on a personal level, when Leonard joined us for our Springfield benefit show last week, he aced the cut-of-the-jib test. He’s the type of outsider candidate Dems should be turning to in Red America.2

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Bob Harvie (PA-01)

  • Cook rating: Likely R (D+1)

  • 2024 Result: Brian Fitzpatrick (R): 56.4%, Ashley Ehasz (D): 43.6%

  • Harvie is a former social-studies teacher and the vice chairman of the Bucks County Board of Commissioners.

  • Like Mike Lawler in New York, incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is one of the odious Republicans who pretends to be a moderate by writing strongly worded letters about his opposition to Trump’s most authoritarian schemes while being a reliable vote for MAGA.

  • Tim’s Rationale: Fitzpatrick’s ability to maintain his moderate front is why this race is rated as “likely Republican” despite being a D+1 district and a wave year. But Democrats have made gains in Bucks County in the first two years of Trump 2.0. And with an unpopular war and terrible economy to hang around his neck, Fitzpatrick’s days might finally be numbered.


Nancy Lacore (SC-01)

  • Cook rating: Likely R (R+6)

  • 2024 Result: Nancy Mace (R): 58.3%, Michael B. Moore (D): 41.7%

  • Lacore is a very Bulwarky candidate. A former Republican, she describes herself as a pragmatic, results-oriented moderate—a stark contrast with the district’s current “show horse” representative, Nancy Mace. Lacore also leans on her thirty-five-year career in the Navy, in which she served first as a helicopter pilot and retired as a vice admiral. She was fired from her last post, chief of the Navy Reserve, by Pete Hegseth. (Check out Lauren Egan’s profile of Lacore from earlier this year.)

  • With Mace retiring, the Trump-endorsed Republican nominee is Jenny Costa Honeycutt, a Charleston County Councilwoman.

  • Tim’s Rationale: Democrats actually won this district in the not-so-distant past when Joe Cunningham pulled off an upset in the 2018 wave. With similarly favorable conditions, a weak Republican Senate nominee at the top of the ticket in Darline Graham, and a very good candidate in Lacore, this is a prime pickup opportunity in a red state.


Chaz Molder (TN-05)

  • Cook rating: Solid R (R+10)

  • This district was redrawn this year, so the 2024 results are not an accurate reflection of the current district.

  • Molder is the mayor of Columbia, Tennessee, having won his 2022 re-election campaign by a wide margin in a county that Trump won in 2020 by 36 points.

  • Republican nominee Charlie Hatcher is the former state agriculture commissioner.

  • Tim’s Rationale: I haven’t been able to let go of my anger about Tennessee Republicans’ blatantly racist gerrymander of the state’s map following the Callais decision. I wanted to pick one district that looks like the best chance to inflict some bad karma, and even though it’s still a stretch, I think this is it. The new 5th district stretches from urban Memphis to the exurbs of Nashville, so there are still voters in this district that are reliable for Dems, and more who are getable. Incumbent Republican Rep. Andy Ogles was so unpopular that he lost his primary, which will make this a more challenging race. But Republican voters may not be eager to turn out for an uninspiring Hatcher. And the Republican gubernatorial nominee, Sen. Marsha Blackburn, isn’t exactly the most exciting candidate at the top of the ticket. I wouldn’t bet the farm on this one, obviously, but maybe the wave year will bring some sweet revenge.


Beth Macy (VA-06)

  • Cook rating: Solid R (R+12)

  • 2024 Result: Ben Cline (R): 63.2%, Ken Mitchell (D): 34.8%

  • Beth Macy is a reporter and nonfiction author who wrote Dopesick about the opioid crisis (which was later adapted into a great TV show, fwiw). Despite being a memoirist with ties to Appalachia, she balks at any association with JD Vance, which is automatically appealing to me, obviously.

  • Incumbent Republican Ben Cline is a member of the House Freedom Caucus, and a 2024 analysis by FiveThirtyEight placed Cline in the same “quiet caucus” of “Far-Right Obstructionists” as MTG, Lauren Boebert, and Jim Jordan. Unsurprisingly, he was in favor of Trump’s attempted coup.

  • Tim’s Rationale: Virginia’s 1st, 2nd, and 5th districts are more obvious pickup opportunities with plenty of support from national Democrats. But Virginia Dem insiders tell me VA-06 is the sneaky one to watch. The Shenandoah Valley–centered district has some college towns and artsy progressive pockets and is generally less rural than its redder southwestern neighbor (the 9th). Virginia was hit hard by DOGE firings that affected the whole Commonwealth’s economy, not just the D.C. suburbs. Keep your eye on this one as an indicator of how big the blue wave actually is.


Fred Clark (WI-07)


Adam Hamilton (KS-Senate)

  • Cook rating: Lean R (R+8)

  • 2020 Result: Roger Marshall (R): 53.2%, Barbara Bollier (D): 41.8%, Jason Buckley (L): 5.0%

  • Adam Hamilton is feeding my good wolf. He’s a moderate megachurch pastor who has managed to resist adopting politician-speak and doesn’t shy away from articulating his differences with the Democratic party establishment. (Check out my conversation with him on The Bulwark Daily.)

  • Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall sucks. I spent twenty-four minutes talking about all the reasons why on Bulwark Takes.

  • Tim’s Rationale: The war-induced high gas and oil prices are hitting Kansas farmers hard. Roger Marshall is a doctor who has voted to gut health care for rural Kansans. Adam Hamilton is a talented moderate who can appeal to cultural conservatives and probably gave the best interview on the pod in 2026. Kansas is on the map. I’m all in.

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1

Update (September 30, 2026, 2:38 p.m. EDT): Shortly before we published this newsletter, the Cook Political Report changed the ratings listed for three of the races to match new assessments reached on September 25. We have updated the newsletter to reflect those three changes: CO-05 went from Likely R to Lean R; FL-22 went from Lean R to Toss-Up; and NY-21 went from Solid R to Likely R.

2

Correction (September 30, 2026, 2:45 p.m. EDT): As originally published, this paragraph began with a sentence (“Springfield deserves a representative who will fight to protect it”) suggesting that Springfield is in Ohio’s 15th Congressional District. In fact, OH-15 wraps around the north of, but does not include, Springfield.

Things Are Going So Badly for Trump, Even JVL Has Hope

30 September 2026 at 01:20

Tim, Sarah, and JVL are all together in-studio. It turns out things are so bad for the GOP, even JVL is hopeful. They discuss Marjorie Taylor Greene calling BS on the GOP's 'caravan' tactic, whether Pete Hegseth could be the administration's fall guy for the Iran war, and a new Marist poll showing Democrats with an almost-too-good-to-be-true lead on the generic congressional ballot.

Later: Did Scott Jennings REALLY talk to Mitch McConnell for 30 minutes? Can Democrats get to 56 Senate seats? The gang has thoughts on how Democrats should handle oversight investigations in 2027. Plus: Bo French is racist AND wants mass executions, and finally: the gang discusses some interesting rumors about Candace Owens.

You can help: Donate here to support the Haitian Support Center in Springfield, OH.

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Trump's Midterm Plans Keep Hitting Roadblocks (Amanda Carpenter and Evan Gershkovich)

29 September 2026 at 21:14

Vigilance is still in order, but Trump’s efforts to rig the midterms have so far flopped. And that includes Trump’s self-sabotaging of his own plan to blame China for hacking our voting machines. But should the Dems win back Congress, they’re going to be busy tracing all the money that was stolen for the ballroom, the arch, and Pentagon contracts with Trump family members. Plus: Evan discusses his new book, which memorializes both his 16 months in Russian captivity—and the recent history of Russia at war under Putin.

Amanda Carpenter and Evan Gershkovich join Tim Miller.

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