(Photo illustration by Sarah Rogers/The Bulwark | Photos: Getty, Shutterstock)
ONE OF THE UNEXPECTED NEW STARS of this midterm election has been Adam Hamilton, the Kansas megachurch pastor who has a chance—though it’s nowhere near certain—of defeating Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and becoming the first Democratic senator elected from Kansas in ninety-four years.
Donald Trump won Kansas two years ago by 16 points. That’s bigger than his margins in Iowa, Florida, Alaska, or Texas. So a Hamilton win would be one of the most impressive feats of any Democratic candidate this cycle. Hamilton has tied or led in every poll tracked by the New York Times since mid-September, but never by more than 5 points (and that was in a poll his campaign sponsored).
Getting to the heart of why Hamilton is overperforming is important, because Democrats are going to take lessons from this race about how they should run—and whom they should run—in red parts of the country, even if he falls just short. It’s important they learn the right lessons.
We talked to 2024 Kansas Trump voters to find those lessons. And what we found out was that
Republicans have been on a long winning streak in Florida...but they might be playing defense in 2026...because they have one candidate who's REALLY into data centers, and another candidate running what's being called a 'Joe Biden Basement' campaign. And the Democratic ticket may be one of the oddest couples in the history of politics, led by a former Republican Congressman (David Jolly) and a DSA-aligned state legislator (Angie Nixon). POLITICO's Kimberly Leonard joins Sarah to discuss whether Florida is back in the 'swing state' column in 2026.
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(Photo illustration by Sarah Rogers/The Bulwark | Photos: Getty, Shutterstock)
IF YOU’VE SPENT MUCH TIME watching the NFL, college football, or Dancing with the Stars over the past week, or if you’re just an average political obsessive,1 you’ve probably noticed the taxpayer-funded ads from Donald Trump.
They’re billed as “public service announcements,” and one of the spots features excerpts from a speech Trump gave at one of his 2024 campaign rallies. The speech goes like this:
With you at my side, we will demolish the deep state. We will expel the warmongers from our government. We will drive out the globalists. We will cast out the Communists, Marxists, and fascists. We will throw off the sick political class that hates our country. We will rout the fake news media, and we will liberate America from these villains once and for all.
Since the ads began to air, it’s become pretty clear that people hate the idea of the government using taxpayer money to broadcast them. And I mean, they truly hate it.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that people oppose “using taxpayer funds to pay for election-related television ads featuring the President or members of his cabinet” by a margin of 86–9.2
What’s been less clear is whether the ads themselves are effective. After all, voters always claim to hate political ads. Even when campaign commercials are really effective, voters almost never admit to liking them, trusting them, or being influenced by them. And yet they work. But do Trump’s?
To find out, we convened a group of voters from Florida who backed Trump in 2024 but now disapprove of his job performance—the very voters he needs to win back—and showed them the ad. What we saw wasa whole new level of revulsion. In fact, we couldn’t even get through the question.
“If you’ve watched the NFL or watched college football, you might’ve seen it around a little bit,” the focus group moderator began. They were immediately interrupted.
“Oh my God,” Ramiro, 58, from Miami interjected, clearly knowing what was coming.
Then we played the ad.
This is what makes The Bulwark different: We conduct focus groups with voters to try to understand what makes them tick—what moves them. We do this in service of getting answers you won’t hear anywhere else. We help you see around corners. If you value that work, please consider supporting us by becoming a Bulwark+ member.
Let’s be clear about what we’re doing here. The Bulwark exists to fight authoritarianism and defend American democracy. We do that with reporting, analysis, accountability, and by building a community of people who refuse to look away or pretend this is normal. If you believe this fight matters, join Bulwark+ and help us do the work.
Sarah Longwell and Andrew Weissmann explain the explosive Kimberly Guilfoyle corruption allegations, including the $100,000 Amex payment, incriminating text messages, and why Trump might be reluctant to turn against her. Plus, Weissmann explains why Trump’s $5,000 election promise could constitute a crime, how a federal judge shut down a Trump DOJ prosecution, and why the administration’s defiance of court orders in its El Salvador deportations could still have serious consequences.
(Photo illustration by Bill Kuchman/The Bulwark | Photos: Getty, Shutterstock)
OF ALL THE STATES THAT COULD give us an indication of how big the blue wave will be this cycle, Iowa is one of the most intriguing.
Donald Trump never came within 8 points of losing the state. But of the ten polls of this race since September 1 in the New York Times polling aggregator, the Democrat leads in four, the Republican leads in five, and one was a tie.1
The state is a petri dish for Trump’s toxicity: diesel prices, corruption, and concerns about AI and data centers all have particular relevance in Iowa. It also will be a strong case study in what types of Democratic candidates can play in states that have drifted right over the Trump years. The Democratic nominee for Senate, Josh Turek, is likeable, admirable, and has run a non-stupid campaign.
And yet, if the focus groups I conducted in the state last week are telling me anything, one of the deciding factors in the race will be
The October Surprise? You’re going to want The Bulwark.
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It’s October, and the political environment is really, really, REALLY bad for the Republican Party. Cook Political Report editor in chief Amy Walter explains how Cook is approaching its race ratings this year, and she and Sarah discuss the ever-growing list of reasons swing voters are mad about the state of the country, discuss Michigan’s Senate race and Sarah’s latest Focus Group Newsletter, and have a more high-minded discussion about how AI is affecting voters’ information diets (and the next election).
If you value this kind of in depth coverage and want to show your support for the our work, upgrade now to watch or listen to our premium ad free editions of Bulwark shows—PLUS you’ll get access to The Focus Group newsletter by Sarah too.
Each membership ensures we can give away subscriptions to those who can’t afford to join our community. The only way through is together.
Full ad-supported episodes ofThe Focus Groupare available wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube. Hit that like 🤍 button and share this episode with a friend. Click here to add the show to your player of choice.
Let’s be clear about what we’re doing here. The Bulwark exists to fight authoritarianism and defend American democracy. We do that with reporting, analysis, accountability, and by building a community of people who refuse to look away or pretend this is normal. If you believe this fight matters, join Bulwark+ and help us do the work.
Sarah Longwell and Andrew Weissmann discuss Jack Smith’s latest Senate testimony, including the questions Republicans didn’t ask about the actual cases against Trump and the Eric Schmitt gotcha that blew up in spectacular fashion. They also dig into the turmoil inside Trump’s DOJ, the fight over White House press access, Trump’s $1.776 billion “slush fund” case, and a Supreme Court election decision ahead of the midterms.
(Photo illustration by Bill Kuchman/The Bulwark | Photos: Getty, Shutterstock)
WHAT DOES ABDUL EL-SAYED have in common with Marjorie Taylor Greene?
El-Sayed doesn’t think there’s much. In a July interview with Politico’s Dasha Burns, he mostly rejected the comparison, which Burns made based on the fact that both politicians condemned AIPAC, opposed all aid to Israel, and called for lower health insurance costs.
“When you ask me about why establishment, elite Democrats are so worried about me,” El-Sayed said, “it’s because there are a lot of people who listen to [MTG] who are going to vote for me in the general election.”
But while El-Sayed may not like being talked about in the same breath as MTG, others see some common threads. After El-Sayed won his primary, Tucker Carlson called his campaign “literally Trumpian” (as a compliment), and said that El-Sayed’s opponent, former Rep. Mike Rogers, was “unfit to serve.”
Clearly, there’s some El-Sayed crossover appeal. And you don’t just have to take Tucker’s word for it. In a recent New York Times/Siena poll, El-Sayed is performing better with 2024 Trump voters than other Democratic Senate candidates in swing states, winning 8 percent of 2024 Trump voters, compared to 5 percent for New Hampshire’s Chris Pappas or 3 percent for Maine’s Troy Jackson.1
I had been wondering about this dynamic for a while (partially because I want El-Sayed to win). So a couple weeks ago, I did a focus group in Michigan with 2024 Trump voters who disapprove of Trump’s job performance. And what I discovered were
Ohio used to be the biggest swing state in the country. It's turned pretty red, (Trump won it by 11 points in 2024) but it's very hotly contested this year, and there's one big overarching local issue driving it. Signal Ohio state government and politics reporter Andrew Tobias joins Sarah to break down the major players.
Sarah is going to host an AMA for all of you on Friday, October 2 at 2:00 p.m. EDT on Substack and YouTube. Just drop your burning questions in the comments on this post, and I will answer the best ones on video. We can’t wait to dig into this elephant with you.
Send questions for the show to focusgroup@thebulwark.com.
If you value this kind of in depth coverage and want to show your support for the our work, upgrade now to watch or listen to our premium ad free editions of Bulwark shows—PLUS you’ll get access to The Focus Group newsletter by Sarah too.
Each membership ensures we can give away subscriptions to those who can’t afford to join our community. The only way through is together.
Full ad-supported episodes ofThe Focus Groupare available wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube. Hit that like 🤍 button and share this episode with a friend. Click here to add the show to your player of choice.
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