For years, and especially in the last month or so, we’ve been collectively inundated with an AI industry which, uncannily and bizarrely, tells us simultaneously that AI is essential, inevitable and runs a significant chance of exterminating all of us in as few as two or three years. If you’ve dipped into this debate at all, you’ve quickly come upon discussions of so-called “rationalists” or “long-termists” or supporters of “effective altruism” who are simultaneously ubiquitous among those developing AI and in the AI safety (i.e., the folks sounding the alarm) community as well. (For the sake of simplicity and brevity, I’ll refer to these folks as the “REL nexus”: rationalists, effective altruists and long-termists. This is my coinage since I don’t know a better one.) I’ve spent a fair amount of time familiarizing myself with this world and how it relates to current debates about AI. So I wanted to share my basic impressions.

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It’s surprising to see Donald Trump campaigning in Texas a month before a midterm election, as he will this week. Far more surprising to see him snubbed by the incumbent Republican governor who until as recently as a month ago appeared to be in an all but nominal reelection campaign against state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Houston Chronicle reporter Ben Wermund caught up with Greg Abbott who told Wermund he wouldn’t be able to show up because of “other campaign events already planned.” Said Abbott: “Whenever he does show up, it leads to excitement with the base. He does a good job with getting the base organized and turning out.”

He “does a good job.” lol …

While I am certainly not predicting Abbott’s defeat, recent polls have shown a genuinely competitive race. Fox and Siena polls both take in the last week of September showed at Abbott +5 (Fox) or Hinojosa +4 (NYT/Siena). A Marist poll a week earlier showed Hinojosa +3. A few lesser known or GOP sponsored polls have leaned more toward Abbott. An additional concern for Abbott is that Ken Paxton seems to be running genuinely behind. So Abbott could also pick up some some of the downdraft from that race.