EU leaders locked horns over everything from climate rules to migration policy and Ukraine’s long-term financial needs during two days of tense discussions in Brussels.

But despite calls for urgent action, the main takeaway from Thursday and Friday’s European Council summit is that key decisions have been delayed to a later date.

With elections looming in Spain and France, and as leaders’ positions seem more entrenched than ever, nothing of substance was put down in ink. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who made the trip to Belgium, did not receive much more than warm embraces and kind words.

Speaking to journalists during a packed news conference, Ukraine’s wartime leader urged his European counterparts to come up with a financial plan or risk facing an unprecedented migration crisis with “20 million Ukrainians” fleeing to Europe.

“The war will cost €155 billion next year. And we need at least €70 billion more from you — for defense, for weapons, and for our resilience,” Zelenskyy said. “This is a realistic amount. And I ask you to find this support. It will help us hold Russia back.” 

But two diplomats told POLITICO that capitals would continue exploring a range of options to meet Kyiv’s needs, including a potential further loan from the EU. 

A debate over whether to mobilize some €300 billion in Russian frozen assets to help Ukraine is a case in point. Nearly a year after EU leaders rejected using the assets amid objections from Belgium, France and Italy, several countries have asked for the option to be revisited, and top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas had said frozen assets would be on the table when leaders met in Brussels.

But after hours of talks about Ukraine, “nothing has changed,” said Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. “The money is not lost but in my belief nothing has happened since we had the discussion last time.”

“In the short term, money to support Ukraine must come from other sources than the frozen assets,” he concluded.

Two EU diplomats told POLITICO that the European Commission and EU capitals were working on other financing options, including seeking funds from Ukraine’s non-EU allies, mobilizing as yet untapped EU funds and drawing up another joint EU loan to complement the €90 billion loan they agreed on last year. 

The leaders “didn’t spend a lot of time” trying to come up with a plan to fund Ukraine in 2027, after Zelenskyy said his country would face a €70 billion budget hole next year, European Council President António Costa said. “We agreed immediately that we need to address the additional needs of financing Ukraine in 2027 and asked Commission to come up with concrete proposal.”

Yet leaders declined to endorse any of those options during news conferences at the end of the summit.

Money talks drag on

The gathering had also been billed as a chance for leaders to break a months-old deadlock over the size and shape of the EU’s nearly €2 trillion long-term budget.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who leaves office next year ahead of a presidential election in April and June, warned leaders that he would no longer have a political mandate to ink a deal if no deal was concluded by the end of this year.

But despite hours of talks on Thursday, neither the frugal camp led by Germany — which advocates a smaller budget — nor the “Friends of Cohesion” group calling for a larger envelope had made any substantial step toward each other.

“I think [a decision] is possible by the end of the year,” Macron told journalists at the summit’s conclusion, adding that failure to strike a deal this year would not “be a good method from a democratic standpoint.”

Instead, leaders spent much of the two-day summit trying to gain a tactical upper hand over rivals on EU climate rules and migration policy.

Trench warfare

A push led Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to water down an emissions trading scheme known as ETS2 hijacked discussions for hours on Thursday. But despite wider support for Tusk’s position than at previous summits, it was easily defeated by countries that support the current scheme.

On migration, Denmark, Italy and Poland led a determined effort to harden the EU’s position, proposing tweaks to the summit’s conclusions that would have explicitly linked irregular migration to crime rates and branded the phenomenon a threat to the cohesion of European societies.

The proposal, which ultimately won support from a group of around 10 countries including Hungary, according to two EU diplomats, also indirectly took aim at Spain, where Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s decision to regularize some 1 million irregular migrants has sparked clashes with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen. 

Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that the Commission would put forward an emergency response framework before the end of the year to allow EU countries to respond to a sudden mass movement, such as the one that caused chaos in the Spanish exclave of Ceuta over the summer.

But the effort led by Meloni and Frederiksen ended in defeat, with the proposed paragraphs deleted from the summit’s final conclusions, which only contained a truncated version.

Macron criticized the discussions on migration, saying they had been excessively “politicized.”

“It was a bad debate because it has been highly politicized and it has been a major source of division around the table,” the French president said.

BRUSSELS — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will make a direct pitch to European leaders for more help on Friday, amid a crisis of faith among allies over Donald Trump’s latest steps favoring Russia. 

At the second day of an EU summit in Brussels, Zelenskyy joins European prime ministers and presidents as they discuss Ukraine’s need for more weapons and cash, with concern growing that Kyiv faces a shortfall of billions of euros next year. 

The reality of the threat to European security from the four-year-long war penetrated the summit bubble after air drones hit two ships in or near Romanian waters, prompting emergency talks with NATO.

“We all in Europe want this war to end,” Zelenskyy said on social media as he arrived in the Belgian capital on Thursday. “And for that, signals of strength are needed — more real pressure on Russia and more defense support for Ukraine.”

It is especially important, Zelenskyy said, to “act together to protect lives.” But unity among European leaders is in short supply at a meeting already riddled with tensions. 

EU governments are pitted against each other in their own fraught negotiations over how much money to commit to the 27-country bloc’s budget. With populists surging, discontent raging and elections scheduled in major power centers across the continent, under-pressure leaders are a long way from approaching a deal.

That’s the combustible mix of financial discussions the U.S. president waded into.

Trump’s decision to open up American markets to previously banned Russian diesel — intended to ease price pressures in the U.S. — risks tilting the balance of an expensive war in Russia’s favor, three European officials warned. Putin’s war chest can now swell from additional fossil fuel exports, while Ukraine struggles for cash. 

As they arrived for the first day of the marathon two-day gathering on Thursday, EU national leaders began informally discussing options for how to help redress the balance. That discussion should to be picked up again around the summit table on Friday.

Russian assets

One idea rapidly rising back up the agenda is the fraught question of whether, or how, to make use of some hundreds of billions of euros of frozen Russian financial assets held in European banks. 

The bulk of these rest with the Euroclear depository in Brussels. A previous attempt to grab the funds and send them directly to Kyiv was blocked by the Belgian government ― and other countries less prominently ― over concerns it would be exposed to legal action. 

But Sweden, Finland and Germany want to take another look at the assets. The European Commission is to come up with a new detailed assessment of Ukraine’s funding needs and an options paper on how to help, including the use of assets, according to officials from these countries. 

As the summit began, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he had been urging his counterparts to “do everything we can to help Ukraine get through the winter and continue to support it next year as well.” 

“We will also have to increase funding once again in order to provide Ukraine with truly long-term assistance,” he said. “I remain firmly convinced that we are not only defending Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but also the political order of Europe, which is truly under pressure from Russia in every respect.” 

A German official earlier suggested that of the available options to help Ukraine, including a loan and direct grants from national governments, using the assets was the most viable way forward and should be “discussed.”

A U.S. proposal to unfreeze some of the Russian assets and transfer them to a U.S.-controlled entity so Washington could use them as leverage in peace talks with Moscow also attracted strong criticism.

Merz told reporters that the assets had been frozen in Europe and “should remain frozen in Europe … That is our business, and we will decide on it.”

‘Try again’

Finland’s Prime Minister Petteri Orpo told POLITICO as the summit began: “The best solution would be that we will have a solution on how to use frozen assets … We have to try again.” 

Sweden is also backing the move to re-examine options on using the assets to help Ukraine’s future funding needs. “Doing nothing is not an option,” Swedish EU Affairs Minister Jessica Rosencrantz told POLITICO. “The Commission is looking into different financial options, and we need to get them on the table quite soon,” she said. 

Leaders at this week’s summit should “be really honest that Ukraine needs increased financing” and that the EU “must really step up,” she added.

Zelenskyy met Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, the main opponent to a deal on assets, for talks on Thursday and thanked him for his country’s support so far.

Speaking to reporters after the first day of the summit, De Wever said the assets should be looked at as part of a future peace agreement. “Are there people on this planet who maybe dream of doing it differently this time and operationalizing those assets earlier for certain purposes? The answer to that question is: Yes there are,” he said. “Are they in this building? They are. Are there outside this building? Yes there are. Do I want to talk about it? No, I don’t.”

For Finland’s Orpo, Trump’s “terrible deal” with Putin on diesel, and the apparent U.S.-imposed limits on Starlink technology to help Ukraine counter Russian attacks, are hard to understand.

“My message to [Trump] is that we are allies,” Orpo said in an interview. “We are in NATO. And what is the biggest threat against NATO? It’s Russia — and that is why there is no logic. I don’t have answers. I have many questions.” He said Trump may be focusing on winning votes ahead of next month’s midterm elections in the U.S. but he should remember that his real allies lie in Europe and he should not “trust” Putin. 

Election anxiety

Finland holds its election next year at the same time as what could be a seismic contest in France. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen is leading the polls for the French presidency and wants to cut aid to Ukraine and slash the EU’s budget. 

French President Emmanuel Macron, who is constitutionally barred from standing next year, warned EU leaders that they must get a deal on the bloc’s next budget by December, otherwise it will be too late. 

But the 27 leaders remain split and show no signs of bridging the gap between “frugal” countries like Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands, who want to limit the settlement, and others such as Italy and Romania, who are on the side of bigger pots of cash for regional development and farming. 

European Council President António Costa also sees the urgency. He believes a deal before the end of the year is not only necessary but achievable, according to two EU officials.

Costa, who is taking over the negotiations from Ireland in its role at the helm of the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, believes failing to secure a deal by December would push the entire budget negotiating process beyond the electoral cycle. That would potentially delay a deal until October next year — perilously close to the new EU budget taking effect in January 2028. 

In an effort to make progress on the budget talks, EU leaders will return to Brussels for an extra summit next month.

Camille Gijs, Hanne Cokelaere and Gregorio Sorgi contributed reporting.

BRUSSELS ― António Costa is supposed to be the dealmaker who brings European leaders together. Increasingly, his efforts are going unrewarded.

At a summit of the bloc’s national leaders on Thursday, Costa — who, unlike most of the EU’s current big beasts, is a Socialist — suffered his most stinging criticism since taking the role of European Council president nearly two years ago. The ire centered on his handling of unrelated negotiations over curbing energy prices and the EU’s next seven-year budget.

Governments were looking for both debates to show signs of progress at the two-day gathering, which was scheduled to continue on Friday. What they got was, at best, stalemate ― at worst, mounting division. And a day of talking that dragged on for 14 hours with little to show for it.

The longer budget negotiations last, the “more difficulties we will have,” Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo told POLITICO. “So we have to work to find a solution this year. I understand very well that it is difficult. A huge challenge.”

The stakes could barely be higher. The EU is desperate to ease the cost of living crisis and get a deal on the budget before national elections next year make finding an agreement much tougher. Disunity between the bloc’s 27 members looks even starker when Donald Trump makes moves to take Russia’s side in the Ukraine war, the economy is struggling to match the might of China and anti-EU nationalists get closer to power in Europe’s biggest capitals.

All 16 diplomats and officials who POLITICO spoke to for this article were granted anonymity to allow them to speak on a sensitive issue. They were all either in the summit room on Thursday or were immediately briefed by leaders who were. While most were critical of Costa, others spoke more positively.

Costa’s spokesperson declined to comment.

Bogged down

Costa, a former Portuguese prime minister, is appointed by leaders to chair their summits and corral them into agreement. As Brussels Playbook reported on Thursday, EU officials judge he’s entering a defining period of his presidency, racing against time to overcome huge divisions on the budget. He is widely expected to push for reappointment for a second two-and-a-half-year term next year, officials said.

Thursday’s summit was dominated by discussions unraveling on the second phase of the bloc’s carbon pricing regime, known as ETS2.

The showdown over the Emissions Trading System — both the current one, and the second iteration which is already legislated and will put a carbon price on heating and transport from 2028 — became so bogged down it forced Costa to cancel the summit’s planned press conference and delay further talks until after dinner, because they had become a “mess,” three EU diplomats told POLITICO.

With German Chancellor Friedrich Merz incensed by what Berlin saw as his Italian counterpart Giorgia Meloni’s intransigence, fiery negotiations pitted a coalition made up of Germany, Spain, France, Portugal, the Nordics and the Netherlands against a stubborn bloc of Italy with Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia and Poland (known as the Visegrád Four). Rome and the V4 group wanted the EU to postpone ETS2 because of the burden it would place on energy bills, according to five diplomats.

Leaders were fuming at Costa for allowing talks to go off the rails, two EU diplomats from different member countries said. While the pre-summit conclusions didn’t point to any rethink of ETS2, the countries tried to unpick the legislation in the summit room, leaving Costa flustered, one of them said.

Costa “wants to have conclusions ready from [pre-summit meetings of ambassadors] and not to open them during EUCO,” the diplomat said. “He is not a fan of drafting on the spot.”

Another said there was “huge frustration,” calling the tug-of-war over the wording of the energy policy “insane chaos.”

“They just went on with Italian drafts and disregarded texts that were handed in before by others, seemingly not understanding the political nuances of the whole ETS discussion,” they added.

Another accused Costa of “losing control of the room,” saying he had failed to keep track of proposed amendments and present them to EU leaders in time for the discussions. As a result, leaders were left debating without them, contributing to negotiations going on past midnight.

One diplomat and one EU official separately compared Costa with his immediate predecessors, Charles Michel ― who governments frequently criticized for a lack of dealmaking know-how ― and Donald Tusk, who enjoyed broad support throughout his term in office.

Costa performed “worse than Charles Michel” on Thursday, the diplomat said. The official said “there is frustration that things are not being dealt with a bit more Tusk-style.”

Honest broker

The annoyance went beyond the energy debate. While governments weren’t expecting a breakthrough on the EU budget on Thursday, they have started raising questions about Costa’s handling of that topic too.

Costa is determined to secure an agreement by the end of the year. In his job, the Council president must act as a honest broker and facilitate a deal among 27 governments.

Northern EU countries are worried he’s favoring southern countries, according to a further four EU diplomats.

One EU diplomat accused Costa of being two-faced and not acting as an honest broker in the budget negotiations.

Another diplomat, from a country that wants the budget to be smaller, said: “Costa personally and politically belongs to the other camp.”

“There is some skepticism on how he will take the process further from here,” they said. The so-called frugal countries are calling on Costa to propose further cuts ahead of a special EU summit on the budget that was confirmed Thursday for Nov. 26.

‘Superb deal maker’

Many governments still believe Costa may succeed over the long term. Even those who acknowledge that his honeymoon is over ― a period when he was roundly praised for being a safe pair of hands and avoiding diplomatic faux-pas ― retain faith in him.

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever defended Costa as “capable” and “shrewd” after the first day of the summit — praising the Council president for largely avoiding drafting on the day, unlike Michel.

Costa “avoids negotiation about the wording on the table which happened all the time under his predecessor and which annoyed the hell out of everybody because then you are here until three o’clock to discuss about syllables, commas and words that the next morning you cannot see the difference anymore,” De Wever said. “You don’t even know anymore what you are negotiating about.”

Other diplomats said the disarray wasn’t Costa’s fault, and blamed the leaders who tried to unpick the energy legislation, notably Meloni. “He did not want to reopen the conclusions, it was the V4 and Italy who did so,” one said. “I don’t see what he could have done differently.”

Another EU official defended the sheer difficulty of the task faced by the Council president. “Discussing drafting at leaders’ level is not the most straightforward thing in general.” On energy, the official said leaders wanted to have “proper consideration” of the different proposals by countries, which had “opposing interests.”

One of the diplomats more critical of his political leanings on the budget said Costa was “impeccable” in his behavior. “He’s a superb deal maker.”

The next few weeks will show how true that turns out to be.

Hanne Cokelaere, Camille Gijs, Sebastian Starcevic, Gerardo Fortuna and Hans von der Burchard contributed to this article.

BRUSSELS — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wants EU leaders to look into the idea of developing bloc-wide strategic gas reserves amid concerns the continent faces a winter shortage, three diplomats and two EU officials told POLITICO.

Europe’s existing gas storage caverns — which are typically refilled over the course of the year by commercial actors — are running at record lows this year after high summer prices linked to the war in Iran undercut market incentives to restock, leaving the bloc underprepared for winter.

While it wasn’t immediately clear to diplomatic officials what form the reserve idea would take, one senior EU official described it as a long-term measure to cushion the bloc against future supply risks, as countries already do with oil and refined products. The Commission president’s comments came at a major summit of European leaders in Brussels on Thursday.

Documents detailing November plans to revamp the bloc’s gas security architecture, seen earlier this year by POLITICO, include plans to encourage better crisis management by companies. However, they stop short of explicitly endorsing strategic reserves that governments would have to fill to a set level to offset supply shortages, regardless of market conditions.

Countries that typically rely on commercial refilling have already been forced to change tack this year as the limits of the existing model became clear. The Netherlands has moved to subsidize energy purchases, costing it almost €1 billion, while Germany is exploring whether to develop its own strategic stockpile.

A separate Commission proposal to set up an EU-wide mechanism to carry out joint energy purchases was received without enthusiasm by EU leaders on Thursday, two diplomats said.

EU leaders meet today for their first chance to beef about the budget face to face.

On the show, Zoya Sheftalovich and Sarah Wheaton dive deeper into why leaders look increasingly unlikely to reach an agreement on the EU’s next money pot by December. Plus, Zoya obtained a document revealing deepening relations between Russia and Slovakia. Will that be a cause for concern around the Council table?

Next up, Zoya spoke with Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius on stage yesterday. His main message? Europe should boost its defense capabilities and stop relying so heavily on U.S. military support.

And finally, ECB President Christine Lagarde plugged her upcoming memoir at a press conference … is she allowed to do that? 

If you have a question or comment, don’t hesitate! message us on our WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.

Articles mentioned in this episode:

• “How to watch the EU leaders’ summit like a pro.”
• “Slovakia deepening ties with Russia, document shows.”
• “Lagarde’s book plug raises questions about ECB ethics standards.”
• “Weakened Macron and Merz sink hopes of a quick EU budget deal.”

BRUSSELS — Slovakia is reviving a dormant cooperation forum with Moscow, putting Russia’s gas and oil supplies, nuclear fuel and the treatment of Russian athletes high on the agenda of their first such meeting in five years, according to a Russian government note obtained by POLITICO.

The note, written by Russian Science and Higher Education Minister Valery Falkov, says Slovak Foreign Minister Juraj Blanár agreed during an Aug. 20 video call to hold a meeting of the Russian-Slovak Intergovernmental Commission in Moscow.

Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico said Wednesday the meeting is scheduled for Nov. 25. The Russian note — which is dated Sept. 10 — initially set the date of the meeting as Oct. 26-27.

The IGC, which covers economic, scientific and technical cooperation, has been dormant since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The last meeting was the commission’s 21st session, held in Bratislava on Nov. 12, 2021.

The meeting comes as Moscow finds openings in other international arenas. The U.S. has invited Vladimir Putin to December’s G20 summit in Miami, while the International Olympic Committee has provisionally lifted its suspension of the Russian Olympic Committee and urged sports bodies to ease restrictions on Russian athletes.

Asked about the purported agenda for the IGC, the Slovak foreign ministry directed POLITICO to Blanár’s public statements after the Aug. 20 call. “We pursue a policy in all directions and maintain dialogue with all countries that are interested in pragmatic cooperation with us for the benefit of the Slovak Republic’s national interests,” Blanár said at the time.

The Russian foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

The renewed push for warmer Slovak-Russian relations follows Fico’s May 9 visit to Moscow, where he met Russia’s President Vladimir Putin during Victory Day commemorations. It comes after Viktor Orbán’s defeat in Hungary’s April election, which cost Putin one of his closest partners in Europe and forced him to look elsewhere for EU allies.

Months before losing the election to Péter Magyar, Orbán rebooted the Russian-Hungarian Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation, which had been suspended for several years after the 2022 invasion. Magyar’s government did not confirm to POLITICO whether the commission would go ahead next year.

EU leaders, including Fico, will gather in Brussels on Thursday for a two-day summit focused on issues including energy prices and support for Ukraine, with the country’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expected to join them for a conversation on Friday.

Oil imports and cultural integration

In the August video call, Blanár raised Slovakia’s opposition to the EU’s phaseout of Russian gas imports and asked to discuss supplies at the Moscow meeting, according to the document, which POLITICO could not independently verify but bears the hallmarks of a legitimate Russian ministerial note. Slovak representatives also stressed the importance of continued Russian oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline and welcomed regular shipments of nuclear fuel for Slovak power plants, according to the note.

Slovakia remains heavily reliant on Russian oil and gas, and Fico has argued that ending imports would raise costs. When the two leaders met in Moscow on May 9, Putin said Russia would do everything to meet Slovakia’s energy needs.  

The agenda for the meeting next month reaches beyond energy, according to the document. The sides plan to explore working groups on culture, tourism, agriculture and environmental protection, and to discuss the status of the Russian Center for Science and Culture in Bratislava.

Falkov also records Blanár’s opposition to what the note calls the “discrimination against Russian athletes” at international competitions, noting the issue is to be discussed at the IGC meeting.

The International Olympic Committee lifted the suspension of the Russian Olympic Committee in July and said its previous recommendations restricting Russian athletes’ participation no longer applied. World Archery lifted restrictions on Russian athletes and officials in August. FIFA President Gianni Infantino has also called for Russia to be allowed back into international football.

The approach echoes Moscow’s recent effort to lock in closer ties with Orbán’s Hungary. Budapest and Moscow in December agreed on a 12-point plan to expand cooperation in areas including energy, trade and culture. The plan was signed by then Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó and Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko after talks in Moscow in December. The Slovak note points to a similar breadth of ambition.

The Kremlin’s outreach to Fico shows how Moscow can use energy ties to pull individual EU countries away from a united stance on Ukraine. Putin made a similar pitch in Washington last weekend: After a call with the Russian leader, President Donald Trump said Russia would supply diesel to U.S. and global markets to bring down fuel prices. The deal would provide revenue to Moscow while weakening efforts to maintain a united front against the Kremlin.

But there are questions over whether Putin can follow through on his pledge to Trump. Ukraine has been stepping up drone strikes on Russian refineries, aiming to disrupt fuel supplies and cut revenue for Moscow’s war effort. Kyiv said this month that strikes had disabled 51 percent of Russia’s oil-refining capacity.

The Commission is grappling with two goals that may be counterproductive: cutting migration and slashing development aid.

The EU executive’s argument is that a slash in development funding will likely result in people showing up at European borders in search of a better life. And that’s a problem for the bloc, since it’s looking to decrease migration numbers. On the show, hosts Zoya Sheftalovich and Ian Wishart explain how the dilemma will be unpacked at the upcoming European Council this week.

Next, a shooting near the European Parliament in Brussels has EU officials — and everyone else, for that matter — on edge.

Finally, the U.K. under Andy Burnham is at a big inflection point when it comes to redefining its relationship to the EU. But the bloc doesn’t even seem to care.

Questions? Comments? Let us know on our WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.

BRUSSELS — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote to European leaders urging a series of measures to respond to illegal migration ahead of this week’s summit in Brussels.

Among the measures von der Leyen called for were establishing an emergency response framework when migration has been weaponized, expanding the powers of the EU’s border agency Frontex, and increasing the bloc’s deportation rate. The letter follows a migration crisis in the Spanish exclave of Ceuta over the summer, which saw around 70,000 migrants arrive from Morocco.

“We must prevent such threats and make clear that we will never compromise the protection of our external borders: no state or non-state actor will be allowed to exploit our rules or our values to destabilise the Union,” von der Leyen wrote.

The letter, sent to all 27 leaders of EU member countries, will inform a discussion about migration scheduled for Friday, the second day of this week’s European Council summit.

As the United States looks towards Russia for diesel, European leaders are doubling down on their support for Ukraine.

On the show, hosts Zoya Sheftalovich and Ian Wishart unpack all the ways the EU plans to put its money where its mouth is and help Kyiv. Expect it to be the talk of the town at this week’s meeting of leaders at the European Council summit.

Next, exclusive polling coming out of Spain shows that 58% of Spaniards fear tensions with Morocco over Ceuta and Melilla could spiral into an armed conflict in the next 10 years. We discuss what this means for a country that’s heading into a snap election at the end of next month.

Speaking of Spain, we’re launching Madrid Playbook today! For our Spanish-speaking listeners, subscribe why don’t you?

Finally, Ursula von der Leyen may have been smiling in influencer videos filmed after her State of the Union speech, but behind closed doors, her comms teams was furious.

Questions? Comments? Let us know on our WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.

Articles mentioned in this episode:

• “Poll: Spaniards say Ceuta crisis could spark armed conflict with Morocco.”
• “Ukraine’s FM: Russia’s war budget makes the case for using frozen assets now.”
• “EU approves biggest Russia sanctions package since invasion began.”
  

WARSAW — European leaders are preparing to demand tougher sanctions on Russia at a summit on Thursday, putting them at odds with Donald Trump just days after the U.S. president struck a deal with Vladimir Putin to ease restrictions on Russian diesel exports.

The leaders plan to call for further sanctions and measures targeting Moscow’s oil revenues at the European Council, according to a recent draft joint statement obtained by POLITICO, as EU governments reject Trump’s claim to have secured an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

The disagreement exposes a widening divide over how to bring Moscow to the negotiating table. While Trump is seeking to bring down U.S. fuel prices by allowing more Russian diesel onto global markets, European leaders argue that restricting the Kremlin’s energy revenues remains essential to forcing Putin to end the war.

“Russia is not interested in deescalation, ceasing fire or peace,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told a security conference in Warsaw on Monday. “That is why I will go to Brussels to ask my partners to consider seriously increasing sanctions against Russia.”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also called for further restrictions, pointing to Moscow’s continued attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure despite Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire.

“Russia will only negotiate in good faith under pressure,” Merz said Monday. “Following Moscow’s reckless attacks on Ukraine’s civilian energy supply, we must even tighten [sanctions] further.”

The push comes after EU foreign ministers on Monday approved the bloc’s largest-ever addition to its Russia sanctions list, targeting more than 1,600 individuals and entities. The European Commission is also preparing a 23rd package of sectoral sanctions, which Kyiv expects to be circulated to EU governments by the end of the year, according to a senior Ukrainian official who was, like others in this article, granted anonymity to speak frankly on the sensitive negotiations.

Other European countries are taking a similar position. Britain and Norway have also pledged to increase pressure on Moscow.

“It’s important to sanction Russia not to finance the war,” Norwegian Defense Minister Tore O. Sandvik told POLITICO, calling for loopholes in existing restrictions to be closed.

Trump’s election calculation

Behind closed doors, many European diplomats see Trump’s abrupt shift toward easing restrictions on Russian energy as driven primarily by domestic political concerns ahead of next month’s U.S. midterm elections.

That is the “broadly held view” among EU officials, according to one senior official.

The president is under mounting pressure over fuel prices, which have surged since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Having promised during his 2024 campaign to bring gasoline prices below $2 a gallon, Trump now faces an electorate paying more than twice that amount, with Republicans at risk of losing control of Congress.

His agreement with Putin is intended to release an additional 4.8 million tons of Russian diesel onto global markets over the coming months, easing pressure on fuel supplies and prices.

But European and Ukrainian officials question whether the additional supply will make a meaningful difference, saying that the total volume promised amounts to only around 10 days of U.S. demand. They feel the deal risks undermining efforts to deprive Moscow of the revenues funding its invasion.

“The reality” is that the additional fuel will have a “minimal” impact on U.S. prices, the senior EU official said.

“This is about the midterms,” a second EU official said. “He said he would bring down prices, but then he decided to go to war with Iran.”

The officials also question whether Putin intends to honor Trump’s purported energy ceasefire. Russia has continued striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure since the announcement, while Kyiv says it was not consulted on the arrangement.

For now, most European officials are reluctant to criticize Trump publicly, despite any doubts about the agreement. The EU and Ukraine should maintain their position over the coming weeks, when the administration’s longer-term intentions toward Kyiv may become clearer, one diplomat said, adding that Trump might even change course again if Putin fails to deliver the promised diesel.

Pressure on Washington

The dispute has also revived European calls for Washington to enforce its own sanctions against Moscow.

Tusk urged Europe and the United States to act together to show Russia they were prepared to impose tougher measures, while EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called on Washington to align its approach with Brussels.

Kallas pointed to sweeping Russia sanctions legislation championed by the late Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, which Trump signed into law last month but has yet to fully implement.

The legislation gives Washington additional tools to target Russia’s energy trade and those helping sustain its war effort. European officials want the administration to use them rather than loosen restrictions on Russian exports.

Some Republicans are also calling for tougher action.

“I think we need to be implementing the Russia sanctions bill,” Republican Representative Dan Crenshaw told the Warsaw conference.

The disagreement is raising wider questions in Europe about its dependence on Washington, particularly amid reports that U.S. officials have threatened to restrict Ukraine’s access to American weapons unless Kyiv stops attacking Russian oil refineries.

There is currently “no sign” Washington is following through on those threats, a NATO official told POLITICO, arguing that restricting sales would also hurt American weapons manufacturers.

“PURL is a good deal for the Americans,” the official said, referring to the NATO initiative under which European allies finance purchases of U.S. weapons for Ukraine.

European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, without directly addressing the reports, said Europe needed to take “primary responsibility” for its own defense more urgently as Washington reduces its military presence on the Continent.

The immediate test, however, comes on Thursday, when EU leaders will seek to maintain pressure on Moscow even as their most powerful ally moves in the opposite direction.

Victor Jack and Sebastian Starcevic contributed reporting from Brussels, James Angelos contributed reporting from Berlin, Esther Webber contributed reporting from London.

BRUSSELS — The EU should use frozen Russian assets to fund Kyiv’s defense, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said, adding that doing so would counter claims from the far right and far left that Europe is footing the bill for the war.

“Russia, not European taxpayers, must be the first to pay for the damage it has caused and continues to cause,” Sybiha wrote in an opinion piece for POLITICO.

Using the assets would reassure “skeptical audiences across Europe” ahead of a year of major elections, Sybiha said, in a nod to votes in countries including France and Italy in 2027. In France, presidential frontrunner Marine Le Pen has vowed to end financial aid to Kyiv; in Italy, Roberto Vannacci is challenging Giorgia Meloni from the right and opposes continued support for the war-torn country.

The G7 immobilized roughly €300 billion in Russian central bank reserves in 2022, including about €210 billion in the EU — most of which are held at Belgian financial depository Euroclear. Belgium, backed by Italy, rejected an EU proposal late last year to use these assets to back a loan for Ukraine, citing legal and financial risks and fears of Russian retaliation.

The push gained fresh momentum over the summer, when Sweden, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain urged the European Commission to reopen talks and explore ways to overcome Belgium’s objections. But Belgium again shot the idea down.

Sybiha sought to address the Belgian concerns, saying Ukraine’s finance ministry had proposed placing the assets under collective EU control, making the decision to use them and any liability a shared responsibility.

“Belgium’s exposure is a reason to share the risk, not to do nothing,” Sybiha said.

Sybiha also rejected concerns that using the reserves would undermine the euro or weaken Europe’s leverage in future peace talks. The euro’s credibility, he wrote, “rests on Europe’s ability to defend order and principles.” And the leverage provided by the frozen assets “is not in holding the money — it is in spending it.”

He dismissed the risk of Russian retaliation against Western companies, saying Moscow had already seized control of European business assets, including Nestlé, Auchan and Metro. “Keeping the assets immobilized did not deter it,” he wrote.

Russia plans to spend a record €180 billion on its military in 2027, more than 40% above its 2026 spending, Sybiha said. He called on EU leaders to act this fall, warning that a delay would prolong the war and raise the cost of defending Ukraine.

Germany has rejected Ireland’s proposal for the EU’s next seven-year budget, despite €159 billion in cuts. And it’s not alone: Governments are divided over where the cuts should fall, while the European Parliament is threatening to block the deal.

Zoya Sheftalovich and Nick Vinocur unpack the backlash and what it means for this week’s EU leaders’ summit.

Plus, Zoya interviews Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner about Europe’s efforts to curb irregular migration and plans to tighten restrictions on Russian visitors and former soldiers.

And why the influencers expected at this week’s EU summit won’t be showing up after all.

Questions? Comments? Let us know on our WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.

BRUSSELS — EU countries must “do their job” to prevent travelers from being stuck in airport queues over Christmas, Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner told POLITICO, as he singled out Brussels Airport for the way it has handled the new Entry/Exit System.

In an interview, Brunner defended the bloc’s digital border system and blamed its problems on national authorities and airports.

“Member states had enough time to prepare themselves for this system. They agreed on the system,” Brunner said. “It’s a security issue. It has to work … it’s up to the member states to do their job.”

EU countries began rolling out the Entry/Exit System, which records the fingerprints and facial images of non-EU visitors to the Schengen area, a year ago. It has been fully operational at all external Schengen border crossings since April.

But it has led to long waits at many airports — particularly over the summer, when some countries switched it off during peak periods. Delays persist at some airports, including at Brussels Zaventem, where travelers were forced to wait in lines for up to five hours last month.

“Some member states are a bit behind,” Brunner acknowledged. “We have some challenges, like Zaventem for instance, in Belgium, but also in other member states. And they have to do their job. They agreed on the new system, and now it’s up to the member states to do their job.” 

Brunner also said the Commission had offered support from border agency Frontex and funding to help countries implement the system, adding that he was “very confident” the problems would be ironed out before the next holiday rush.

Belgian Interior Minister Bernard Quintin pushed back at Brunner’s criticism, with a spokesperson saying his responsibility was to ensure there were enough police officers to staff the infrastructure provided by Brussels Airport Company.

The police have “been fully staffing the 12 positions at arrivals,” the spokesperson said, but the airport can process only 500 to 600 non-Schengen passengers an hour, compared with nearly 3,500 who may arrive between 6 a.m. and 10 a.m. on busy days. The airport’s infrastructure “cannot cope” with that demand, the spokesperson said, and the company must “make significant changes.”

Brussels Airport did not directly address the criticism from Brunner or Quintin, instead saying in a statement that “all parties involved” were working to fix the delays, including testing new e-gates and pre-registration kiosks, and training more police. “The need for additional infrastructure is also being assessed,” the statement said.

The Entry/Exit System has logged almost 230 million entries and exits across roughly 1,500 border points, Brunner said. Authorities have refused entry to about 80,000 people, including 2,000 considered security threats because of links to activity such as terrorism or organized crime.

“So you see, it actually works. And it pays off,” the Austrian commissioner said.

“This is the most modern border management system in the world,” he added. “We have the comparison to the U.S., to Canada, to others, and they’re all jealous.”

Ceuta stress test

As the EU’s migration commissioner, Brunner also faced another major test over the summer, when tens of thousands of people crossed from Morocco into Spain’s North African exclave of Ceuta.

The crisis remains an ongoing challenge for Spain and the EU.

Madrid initially said almost all those who crossed from Morocco had returned within days. But thousands remained in Ceuta. More than 3,000 people were living at Trampolín beach when authorities cleared an encampment last week; more than 1,200 then chose to return voluntarily to Morocco rather than go through the asylum-screening process, according to local authorities.

Images of thousands of people swimming toward Ceuta and overwhelming the area quickly became political ammunition, with far-right politicians campaigning for tougher migration policies — turning the crisis into a potent election issue and putting pressure on Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.

Brunner described Ceuta as a warning that the EU needs to be better prepared for sudden arrivals. He recently proposed a plan for cooperation with partner countries, stronger external borders, early-warning systems, and action against smuggling networks. Migration will be a key topic of conversation at this week’s EU leaders’ summit in Brussels.

Among the Commission’s plans to tackle migration is a proposal to strengthen Frontex that would see it have a reinforced standing corps of officers able to be deployed more quickly, a bigger role in returning people to non-EU countries, closer cooperation with partner countries and more capacity to monitor the EU’s borders. The Commission has also proposed giving the agency a role in monitoring social media to help spot emerging migration movements.

Brunner said the reforms would not mean countries would be forced to host Frontex operations if they did not want them. The plan envisages EU support during border emergencies, but member countries remain responsible for their own external borders.

Greece and other countries want the EU to be able to suspend asylum applications during a large influx and Brunner said he is “definitely going ahead” with an emergency response framework, as requested by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. EU leaders will discuss “concrete steps” at this week’s leaders’ summit.

The goal is to make the EU “more flexible” and “more agile” if events like Ceuta occur, where “mass movements are actually engineered and weaponized” against the bloc, he said.

Brussels also wants to help partner countries protect their borders to reduce irregular arrivals into Europe. To that end, Brunner on Monday begins a trip to Bangladesh and Pakistan, seeking to strengthen cooperation on migration with the two countries, he said.

“We want to help them to protect their borders,” Brunner stated, adding that the EU could support Bangladesh “via Frontex, for instance.”

This story has been updated with statements from Interior Minister Bernard Quintin’s office and Brussels Airport.

Brussels officials are finalizing plans to tighten visa rules for hundreds of thousands of Russians who visit EU countries as tourists each year, in a move designed to strengthen the bloc’s defenses against hybrid attacks. 

EU officials told POLITICO the European Commission is planning to put forward proposals in the new year, after a group of countries — including Poland, Sweden and Estonia — pushed for tougher visa rules for Russians, including former fighters who served on the battlefields in Ukraine.

Last year, some 478,000 Schengen area tourist visas were issued to Russian citizens, many of which were multiple-entry visas, which enable holders to come and go repeatedly without needing to apply for documentation each time. 

That system is a security threat to Europe at a moment of heightened concern over Moscow-sponsored acts of sabotage, arson and other forms of hybrid warfare, Sweden’s Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer told POLITICO. 

“It’s obvious I think for everyone that we have vulnerabilities in our system that can be used by our enemies,” Strömmer said in an interview.

“As far as I understand things, the Commission is preparing a proposal that, according to what I have heard, should be launched in January next year. From a Swedish point of view, we would love to see it even earlier.” 

Strömmer welcomed the “progress” and “growing support” for a tougher visa regime.  

Other countries are planning to push the issue during Monday’s Foreign Affairs Council meeting — and also propose more restrictions on Russian diplomats in the EU. 

Estonia has proposed an outright ban on allowing ex-soldiers from Russia’s armed forces access to the EU. There are around 650,000 of these former combatants, according to Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, which would be banned “person by person.”  But a tighter EU-wide approach is vital for the bloc’s security, he told POLITICO. 

“I think a large number of these ex-combatants will come, supported by the Russian secret services, to Europe,” Tsahkna said. “And they will take over our organized crime and they will be heavily weaponized and supported by Russia to commit terror attacks or attacks against our societies. So this is very serious.” 

After an initial fall in the number of Russian nationals receiving travel visas to the EU, “the numbers are not going down anymore,” Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner told POLITICO. “We urge the member states there to do a better job and to give less visas … to Russian citizens,” he said. “Work is progressing.”

Brunner said a Commission proposal to restrict visas “early next year makes sense” alongside new visa rules. “You never know who these tourists actually are,” he said. “So that’s why we urge the member states to decrease the number.”

In June, a group of ministers from nine EU countries plus Iceland and Norway wrote to the Commission calling for “a more uniform and coordinated approach” to Russian visas across all member states.

“A restrictive visa policy towards Russian citizens is essential to safeguard the security and integrity of the Schengen area,” they said. “A divided approach risks undermining — and even counteracting — the pressure we seek to uphold against the Russian Federation.”

Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is kicking off his visit to China today — and the stakes are high.

On today’s show, Zoya Sheftalovich and Sarah Wheaton discuss the most important topic on the agenda: Europe’s trade deficit with China. France and Germany are finally on the same page and want Brussels to get tougher on unfair trade. So can we expect results from the meeting?

Next, EU development ministers are meeting in Dublin to discuss the future of Europe’s development policy. But the timing is unfortunate, as governments prepare another round of cuts to the next long-term budget.

Finally, a mysterious death at a Russian anti-plague lab has an unexpected connection to Zoya’s own family.

Questions? Comments? Let us know on our WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.

Articles mentioned in this episode:

• EU toughens China stance ahead of Šefčovič’s Beijing visit.
• EU-China trade talks zero in on cars.
• WHO seeks clarity on second pneumonia case in Russia amid plague fears.

BRUSSELS — Britain is hopeful of doing a deal with the European Union to avoid British businesses being hit by new Made in Europe trade rules, the minister in charge of talks has said.

European Relations Minister Hamish Falconer told POLITICO’s Brussels Playbook Podcast it was “overwhelmingly in both sides’ interests” to strike an agreement on the proposed controls.

“For Europe to be more competitive and able to weather some of the shocks that we’re all talking about, we need to do it together,” he said. “I think that’s such an overwhelmingly powerful case that I am sure we will come to a sensible position on all this.”

Brussels is in the process of updating its trade rules to favor EU producers over those outside the bloc — and London fears some of its businesses will be locked out.

The U.K. has urged the EU to guarantee that British producers won’t be affected. Brussels says it can’t give those guarantees now as the rules are still working their way through the bloc’s cumbersome legislative process.

Yet in the event a deal isn’t reached, London believes its Brexit trade deal, the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), could force Brussels to think again.

“Our arrangements in terms of how we trade are underpinned by the TCA. That’s a strong arrangement between us which is independently overseen,” Falconer said.

“It provides lots of protections to both sides. Our basic position to our friends is, look, I don’t think European competitiveness is enhanced by putting further impediments in the way of our industrial base.”

There are those in Brussels who agree. In-house lawyers at the EU Council have advised member countries that the bloc’s plans for the Industrial Accelerator Act could violate the union’s international trade deals, according to documents seen by POLITICO.

Falconer suggested the U.K. wanted a “straightforward” and “unfussy” arrangement where U.K. goods were simply counted as being of Union origin under the IAA.

But the minister wouldn’t be drawn on whether success at the upcoming U.K.-EU summit demanded an agreement on Made in Europe — as London had previously briefed.

That meeting is meant to sign off talks on agri-foods, youth visas, and emissions trading — as well as act as a launchpad for further negotiations.

“I don’t wanna get ahead of the discussions. I used to be a diplomat; there’s no discussion or negotiation that is made easier by publicly broadcasting it,” Falconer said.

The bigger reset

The minister rejected suggestions the EU was demanding the U.K. raise tariffs on Chinese cars in exchange for guarantees on the IAA. He stated that he was “surprised” at reports to that effect, adding: “That’s not the kind of conversation that I’m having with my European counterparts.”

Yet a landing zone may be emerging. EU officials and diplomats have previously indicated that reference could still be made to the subject at the meeting — perhaps in the form of a political declaration.

Falconer, who was in Strasbourg on Wednesday for his first European Parliament plenary, confirmed that he would be discussing “future options with European partners” — following Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s suggestion the U.K. could rejoin the EU, or at least its customs union or single market.

He is using the visit to meet with Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, as well as European Parliament President Roberta Metsola. Of the EU institutions debating the industry act, Parliament is pushing for the strictest line on the Made in Europe rules.

Asked what options he was personally pushing for when it came to the future U.K.-EU relationship, Falconer wouldn’t be drawn, revealing only that Burnham would “say more” in a speech scheduled for around “the time of the summit.”

The meeting still has no officially announced date, though Nov. 20 is the latest in a string of days widely rumored to have been penciled in by diary officials in Brussels and London.

“I have a date in mind, but I don’t want to say it just yet,” Falconer told the podcast. “We will agree that with our friends, and you’ll be the first to know.”

Russia’s hybrid attacks across Europe — cyberattacks, sabotage, drone incursions — have been ramping up in recent months. But European governments are quietly preparing for something much worse.

On today’s show, Zoya Sheftalovich and Ian Wishart discuss how EU ambassadors have been meeting in recent weeks to discuss what to do if a potential Russian hybrid attack were to result in mass casualties.

Next, Britain’s minister in charge of relations with Europe, Hamish Falconer, is making his first official visit to the European Parliament. Zoya was able to catch him on the phone to ask him more about EU-U.K. relations under PM Andy Burnham and a potential deal on farming, among other things, currently in the works.

Finally, what may sound like the plot of a spy novel is in fact real news coming out of Berlin where Germany’s former spy chief has been arrested on suspicion of espionage.

Questions? Comments? Let us know on our WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.

Articles mentioned in this episode:

• “EU quietly braces for nightmare scenario of multiple-casualty hybrid attack.”
• “Former German spy chief arrested for treason and espionage.”

Spain’s snap election is poised to upend not just domestic politics … but EU politics, too.

On today’s show, Zoya Sheftalovich and Ian Wishart break down the potential impact of the Madrid tumult — from the EU long-term budget to the potential puncturing of Ursula von der Leyen’s fragile majority in Parliament.

Next, Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar is reviewing a huge nuclear deal agreed between ex-leader Viktor Orbán and Russian president Vladimir Putin. Our reporting has found that there could be some serious problems behind the scenes of the project.

Finally, more than 3,000 temporary contract agents have taken an exam in the hopes of becoming permanent officials. But the early results are pretty dismal.

If you like this show, why not check out our new sister podcast, Decoded by POLITICO? The podcast brings you daily updates on how rapid developments in AI are shifting global policy. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

Questions? Comments? Let us know on our WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.

Articles mentioned in today’s show:

— Spanish election threatens to blow up Brussels’ political balance

— Russia’s Rosatom planned to dismiss scandal-ridden contractor from Hungarian nuclear project. (Subscribers only)

The race for some of the EU’s most coveted diplomatic jobs is under way.

Zoya Sheftalovich and Nick Vinocur unpack why this year’s routine EEAS rotation is attracting unusually strong interest from senior Commission officials — and what it says about the mood in Brussels.

Then, we head to France, where a wave of student protests is spilling into the presidential campaign, sharpening the contrast between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen and adding to what one government adviser called a “maxi merde” moment for French politics.

Plus, Brussels’ revamped Schuman roundabout is becoming a new protest hotspot — close enough for the noise to reach the upper floors of the Berlaymont.

Questions? Comments? Let us know on our WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.