BRUSSELS — EU leaders will go back to the drawing board in November as they race to finalize a deal on the bloc’s next seven-year budget by the end of the year.

During the first day of a two-day summit in Brussels on Thursday, European Council President António Costa announced he was convening an additional gathering on Nov. 26 in a bid to overcome disagreements and lay the ground for a final deal in December. To bring the sides closer to an agreement, he will present new budget figures before the meeting, according to an EU official, who was granted anonymity to discuss the confidential planning.

Costa is pressing leaders to finalize negotiations by the end of the year — before elections in France, Italy and Poland in 2027 threaten to derail the talks.

In a speech to the leaders, Costa warned that going past the end-of-year deadline will delay EU payments to farmers and researchers past Jan. 1, 2028, when the new budget is scheduled to come into force.

If leaders fail to reach a deal in December, the electoral calendar might push an agreement to May or even October 2027, Costa warned leaders in his concluding remarks, according to two EU diplomats briefed on the discussions.

Pressure on governments

Costa’s plan received a major boost on Thursday from French President Emmanuel Macron, who told fellow leaders that he won’t have a political mandate to sign a deal close to the French presidential elections in April 2027.

This is a major reversal for France, which has previously been unwilling to commit to the end-of-year deadline.

Macron’s words put more pressure on governments to advance the talks over the coming weeks — although some cast doubt on his good intentions.

“There are so many elections next year. [French far-right leader Marine] Le Pen herself [said] it’s undemocratic if we were now to agree,” said one EU diplomat.

Just hours before the leaders’ gathering, Le Pen renewed calls to halve France’s contributions to the EU budget if she wins the presidential elections next year.

She said that rushing the budget agreement before the French elections would be “a democratic scandal.”

The new frugal

Costa is stuck between messy domestic politics across Europe and hardening stances among the EU’s 27 leaders.

The so-called frugal EU countries pushing for major budget cuts — Germany, Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, Denmark and Finland — have publicly said that an Irish proposal envisioning €159 billion cuts doesn’t go far enough.

On Thursday, the six hardliners were joined by Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, who joked in a press conference after the summit that “I’m married to a Dutch person so I’m very frugal also in my personal life.”

However, behind closed doors the budget hardliners employed a more conciliatory tone.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz — the unofficial leader of the frugal camp — said that the Irish proposal has achieved progress despite reductions still being needed, said two EU diplomats briefed on the discussions.

He pointed to EU payouts to poorer regions, as opposed to farmer’s subsidies, as an avenue for cuts.

On the other side of the spectrum, Spanish Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez — who will try to cling on to power in an election on Nov. 29 — insisted that the budget is way too small.

“It is a distribution of misery,” he told fellow leaders during the discussions, according to the diplomats. He was joined by Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — an ideological foe on most issues, but an ally of sorts in the budget battle. She insisted that no further cuts to the budget will be accepted.

To bring sides together closer to a deal, Costa promised to advance progress on EU-wide taxes, or own resources, to finance the next seven-year budget and reduce national contributions.  

He will explore the European Parliament’s proposed taxes on crypto firms, online gambling and tech giants as well as a Greek idea to funnel future national sales of 6G mobile spectrum to the EU budget.

But given the level of opposition, getting EU countries to agree to any of these options will no be no mean feat.

“It is time to be realistic and work on what is plausible and reasonable, instead of wishful thinking,” said another EU diplomat.

BRUSSELS — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will make a direct pitch to European leaders for more help on Friday, amid a crisis of faith among allies over Donald Trump’s latest steps favoring Russia. 

At the second day of an EU summit in Brussels, Zelenskyy joins European prime ministers and presidents as they discuss Ukraine’s need for more weapons and cash, with concern growing that Kyiv faces a shortfall of billions of euros next year. 

The reality of the threat to European security from the four-year-long war penetrated the summit bubble after air drones hit two ships in or near Romanian waters, prompting emergency talks with NATO.

“We all in Europe want this war to end,” Zelenskyy said on social media as he arrived in the Belgian capital on Thursday. “And for that, signals of strength are needed — more real pressure on Russia and more defense support for Ukraine.”

It is especially important, Zelenskyy said, to “act together to protect lives.” But unity among European leaders is in short supply at a meeting already riddled with tensions. 

EU governments are pitted against each other in their own fraught negotiations over how much money to commit to the 27-country bloc’s budget. With populists surging, discontent raging and elections scheduled in major power centers across the continent, under-pressure leaders are a long way from approaching a deal.

That’s the combustible mix of financial discussions the U.S. president waded into.

Trump’s decision to open up American markets to previously banned Russian diesel — intended to ease price pressures in the U.S. — risks tilting the balance of an expensive war in Russia’s favor, three European officials warned. Putin’s war chest can now swell from additional fossil fuel exports, while Ukraine struggles for cash. 

As they arrived for the first day of the marathon two-day gathering on Thursday, EU national leaders began informally discussing options for how to help redress the balance. That discussion should to be picked up again around the summit table on Friday.

Russian assets

One idea rapidly rising back up the agenda is the fraught question of whether, or how, to make use of some hundreds of billions of euros of frozen Russian financial assets held in European banks. 

The bulk of these rest with the Euroclear depository in Brussels. A previous attempt to grab the funds and send them directly to Kyiv was blocked by the Belgian government ― and other countries less prominently ― over concerns it would be exposed to legal action. 

But Sweden, Finland and Germany want to take another look at the assets. The European Commission is to come up with a new detailed assessment of Ukraine’s funding needs and an options paper on how to help, including the use of assets, according to officials from these countries. 

As the summit began, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he had been urging his counterparts to “do everything we can to help Ukraine get through the winter and continue to support it next year as well.” 

“We will also have to increase funding once again in order to provide Ukraine with truly long-term assistance,” he said. “I remain firmly convinced that we are not only defending Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but also the political order of Europe, which is truly under pressure from Russia in every respect.” 

A German official earlier suggested that of the available options to help Ukraine, including a loan and direct grants from national governments, using the assets was the most viable way forward and should be “discussed.”

A U.S. proposal to unfreeze some of the Russian assets and transfer them to a U.S.-controlled entity so Washington could use them as leverage in peace talks with Moscow also attracted strong criticism.

Merz told reporters that the assets had been frozen in Europe and “should remain frozen in Europe … That is our business, and we will decide on it.”

‘Try again’

Finland’s Prime Minister Petteri Orpo told POLITICO as the summit began: “The best solution would be that we will have a solution on how to use frozen assets … We have to try again.” 

Sweden is also backing the move to re-examine options on using the assets to help Ukraine’s future funding needs. “Doing nothing is not an option,” Swedish EU Affairs Minister Jessica Rosencrantz told POLITICO. “The Commission is looking into different financial options, and we need to get them on the table quite soon,” she said. 

Leaders at this week’s summit should “be really honest that Ukraine needs increased financing” and that the EU “must really step up,” she added.

Zelenskyy met Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, the main opponent to a deal on assets, for talks on Thursday and thanked him for his country’s support so far.

Speaking to reporters after the first day of the summit, De Wever said the assets should be looked at as part of a future peace agreement. “Are there people on this planet who maybe dream of doing it differently this time and operationalizing those assets earlier for certain purposes? The answer to that question is: Yes there are,” he said. “Are they in this building? They are. Are there outside this building? Yes there are. Do I want to talk about it? No, I don’t.”

For Finland’s Orpo, Trump’s “terrible deal” with Putin on diesel, and the apparent U.S.-imposed limits on Starlink technology to help Ukraine counter Russian attacks, are hard to understand.

“My message to [Trump] is that we are allies,” Orpo said in an interview. “We are in NATO. And what is the biggest threat against NATO? It’s Russia — and that is why there is no logic. I don’t have answers. I have many questions.” He said Trump may be focusing on winning votes ahead of next month’s midterm elections in the U.S. but he should remember that his real allies lie in Europe and he should not “trust” Putin. 

Election anxiety

Finland holds its election next year at the same time as what could be a seismic contest in France. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen is leading the polls for the French presidency and wants to cut aid to Ukraine and slash the EU’s budget. 

French President Emmanuel Macron, who is constitutionally barred from standing next year, warned EU leaders that they must get a deal on the bloc’s next budget by December, otherwise it will be too late. 

But the 27 leaders remain split and show no signs of bridging the gap between “frugal” countries like Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands, who want to limit the settlement, and others such as Italy and Romania, who are on the side of bigger pots of cash for regional development and farming. 

European Council President António Costa also sees the urgency. He believes a deal before the end of the year is not only necessary but achievable, according to two EU officials.

Costa, who is taking over the negotiations from Ireland in its role at the helm of the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, believes failing to secure a deal by December would push the entire budget negotiating process beyond the electoral cycle. That would potentially delay a deal until October next year — perilously close to the new EU budget taking effect in January 2028. 

In an effort to make progress on the budget talks, EU leaders will return to Brussels for an extra summit next month.

Camille Gijs, Hanne Cokelaere and Gregorio Sorgi contributed reporting.

BRUSSELS ― The EU should consider approving a three or four-year budget instead of trying to plan the bloc’s financial needs for seven years, the president of Cyprus told POLITICO.

“We’re discussing the budget in 2034 and now we’re in 2026,” Nikos Christodoulides said in an interview on the sidelines of Thursday’s summit of EU leaders in Brussels.

A three or four-year budget might be “easier” for some member countries to swallow, he suggested. “Why not open the political discussion?”

“You don’t know what’s going to be the situation in 2030, 2031,” he added. “I mean, look what happened with Covid, with the Ukrainian war … It’s not possible to declare all your priorities today.”

The EU’s seven-year, roughly €2 trillion budget has to be agreed by all 27 member countries but has two deeply entrenched camps on either side: The so-called frugals, comprised of Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and others who want a smaller budget, and the friends of cohesion, a loose grouping of 17 countries that do not want major cuts to agriculture and regional funds.

An EU official close to the budget negotiations said the idea of a shorter timeframe was weird.

EU law allows a budget of “at least five years,” though every budget has been seven years since 1993.

The odds of the budget being approved by the end of the year are increasingly slim, with an election in Spain in November, which polls indicate Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will lose to the center-right and far-right, potentially blowing out the timeline for consensus to 2027.

“Everybody used to understand that we need to finish … a political agreement by the end of the year,” Christodoulides said. “Now, with the situation in Spain, elections there,” that is less likely to happen.

Christodoulides also said he expected the budget to be cut by around a 10th compared to the budget proposed by the European Commission. Last week, the Irish government proposed an 8% cut compared to the Commission’s proposal.

“I think we may end up on 10% or 11%,” he said. “Double digits.”

Zoya Sheftalovich contributed reporting.

BRUSSELS — French president Emmanuel Macron warned fellow EU leaders they need to get a deal on the bloc’s seven-year budget by the end of the year because it’ll be too politically difficult after that, four European diplomats said.

His words rachet up the pressure on the EU to overcome their significant differences over the coming weeks.

During a closed-door discussion on Thursday evening, Macron said he wouldn’t have a political mandate to sign a deal close to the French presidential elections in April 2027, the diplomats, all briefed on the conversation, said.

Macron “said that, starting from January, there will be no political room” for concluding an agreement, one of the diplomats said.

The EU’s 27 governments are divided over the total size of the 2028-2034 budget. Leaders gathering in Brussels are discussing the Irish plan, which envisions cuts of €159 billion in current prices to the Commission’s nearly €2 trillion proposal. 

European Council President António Costa is pushing leaders to finalize negotiations during a summit in December — before elections in France, Italy and Poland in 2027 threaten to derail the talks — but some governments and EU officials have said such a timeframe is very unrealistic.

One EU diplomat dismissed Macron’s intervention as a threat to support Costa on the December deadline. “EU would be ungovernable if we were to take into account all the local elections,” they added.

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who is leading the polls to replace Macron, pledged to halve France’s contributions to the EU budget if she comes to power.

During a press conference in Brussels on Wednesday, Le Pen accused the EU of speeding up talks to prevent France’s next leader to have a say.

Several leaders are unwilling to commit to the end-of-year deadline, fearing that time pressure will undermine their leverage in the negotiations.

“We will not sign an agreement that is not beneficial to us just to meet a deadline,” Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told the country’s parliament on Wednesday. “We will sign an agreement only when it is right for Italy.”

Ukraine’s strikes on data centers inside Russia aimed to disrupt military planning and communication services. There were also reports of another kind of disruption: to customers waiting for their dinner from food-delivery apps.

Kyiv’s drone strikes on three Yandex data centers in Sasovo, Kaluga and Vladimir saw delays and interruptions for thousands of businesses and households that rely on Yandex’s cloud infrastructure, including e-commerce, digital payment platforms and apps of food delivery and car services. Ukrainian drones on Wednesday targeted a major Sberbank data center in Russia’s Saratov region, though a senior company executive said it hadn’t affected operations.

After the strikes on Russian data centers, Kyiv noted that Moscow has already repeatedly targeted its digital infrastructure. “Ukrainians wanted to show Russians that two can play this game,” a senior official familiar with the operation told POLITICO, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

The attacks and counter-attacks point to a new frontline in war: the infrastructure powering the digital economy.

The attacks on the buildings that supply compute power are akin to striking a power plant supplying the electricity, heating and fuel that both militaries and civilians depend on. It may weaken an enemy’s war effort but can also bring everyday life to a standstill.

Experts say the cost of rebuilding in Russia will be particularly high as the centers require scarce materials that must be imported. “Obtaining a large amount of equipment to replace what was destroyed is not going to be easy,” said Oleg Shakirov, a cyber policy and international security researcher, noting that most hardware needs to be imported and that is complicated by high global demand and sanctions on Russia.

“To be honest, no one really knows what’s the actual damage. Since two data centers are still offline, we can assume that it’s significant,” said Shakirov.

Joseph Jarnecki, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, warned that normalizing strikes to data centers could have a new set of dangerous consequences.

“These strikes likely breach International Humanitarian Law and it’s a big risk when global populations increasingly rely on digital services,” he told POLITICO.

When servers become targets

Data centers have entered the crosshairs of other recent armed conflicts. During the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran earlier this year, drone strikes hit three Amazon Web Services (AWS) facilities in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

Since data centers can serve civilian and military purposes simultaneously, the legal status of targeting them is far from straightforward.

Kubo Mačák, an expert on international humanitarian law, said a data center must meet two conditions to qualify as a military objective under the Geneva Conventions: it must make an effective contribution to military operations and destroying it must offer a “definite military advantage.”

“If you know that they are storing military intelligence or that they’re using the data center to power military artificial intelligence tools,” Mačák said, there could be grounds to consider it a military objective.

Following the most recent strikes of the Yandex data centers, users on social media platform X reported a sudden drop in automated bot activity, including from accounts associated with pro-Russian, pro-Trump and Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) narratives.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seized on the reports to boast that the strikes had made social media less toxic, even as independent researchers and national research institutes found no evidence they specifically disrupted any Russian disinformation campaigns.

Mačák said that even if a data center is being used to “let’s say, run some trolls or these bot farms to interfere with elections abroad … that would not be sufficient.” In other words, hosting propaganda bots does not, by itself, make a data center a lawful military target.

The dual-use quandary has often focused on the targeting of energy infrastructure, which has been frequent in the Russia-Ukraine war. On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump urged Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil refineries, blaming the attacks for rising fuel prices. He has since called for both sides to halt attacks on energy infrastructure, although the existence of any ceasefire agreement remains disputed.

As data centers become increasingly central to national economies, they will become more consequential targets. A senior NATO official granted anonymity to discuss the matter told POLITICO that data centers are already considered potential targets and that the alliance is factoring their vulnerability into its planning.

NATO allies recognize that their data centers could come under attack in a conflict, the official said: “We would get it in a fight.”

Veronika Melkozerova in Kyiv contributed to this report.

BRUSSELS — European leaders came for the budget. They’re staying for everything else.

A two-day European Council starting Thursday was supposed to be all about the money. Instead, leaders of the 27 EU member countries are heading into one of their most crowded summits in years, with a succession of geopolitical crises threatening to hijack the EU’s carefully laid plans.

European Council President António Costa originally wanted the gathering to accelerate negotiations on the bloc’s next seven-year budget, hoping to seal a deal before elections in France, Italy and Poland in 2027 make an already difficult agreement even harder.

But the world had other plans. Soaring energy prices, tensions with China, Russia’s war in Ukraine (and U.S. President Donald Trump’s ambiguity over it), migration and turmoil in the Middle East have all elbowed their way onto the agenda.

The result is a two-day marathon covering virtually every major challenge facing the EU, from keeping European factories competitive to ensuring the world’s most important shipping lanes stay open.

For anyone trying to follow the action without spending 48 hours glued to Brussels, here’s your guide to what matters.

With the usual warning: EU leaders are notorious for letting discussions drag on or reshuffling the agenda — that’s what our liveblog is for.

Thursday at dawn: The pre-match warm-up

Before the summit even starts, Europe’s political families will gather at the crack of dawn.

The European People’s Party meets from 7:30 a.m. at the Sofitel Brussels Europe — the place to be if you can get in, given how many center-right leaders will be at the summit table.

The Socialists gather from 8:30 a.m. at PES headquarters, with Costa, Spain’s Pedro Sánchez and Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen expected.

Renew kicks off at 8 a.m. at the Palais d’Egmont, with French President Emmanuel Macron and top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas among those expected.

Even without leaders in the summit room, the far-right Patriots got a head start Wednesday, with Marine Le Pen delivering a scathing attack on the state of the EU.

Thursday morning: The energy blame game and China

Leaders kick off with discussions on Europe’s struggle for economic competitiveness, starting with energy — potentially the most politically explosive debate.

Governments want immediate relief from soaring energy prices as a result of the war in Iran, and will push the Commission to introduce new measures on top of the wide-ranging but somewhat toothless package it announced back in March.

Expect finger-pointing between capitals and Brussels over who should act, and for climate policies like the upcoming Emissions Trading System on heating and transport to come under fire.

Next comes China. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will brief leaders on efforts to tackle the EU’s enormous trade imbalance with Beijing, following trade chief Maroš Šefčovič’s negotiations with Chinese officials.

Leaders are expected to renew their demand for Brussels to “urgently” tool up with further trade defenses to prevent further deindustrialization of the bloc and to shield further industrial sectors from Chinese competition.

There’s also time for the familiar fight over EU red tape, with calls for Brussels to stop legislating.

Thursday afternoon: Costa’s budget gamble

This was supposed to be the main event. Leaders will discuss Ireland’s negotiating proposal for the EU’s 2028–2034 budget slashed by €159 billion from the Commission’s original proposal.

The positions are well known: The self-styled “modernists” — essentially the old frugals in disguise — want to contain costs, while countries benefiting from EU spending are determined to defend their allocations, under the less glamorous banner of “friends of cohesion.” Positions on new EU-wide taxes are similarly entrenched.

But the real story is timing.

Governments have watered down a commitment to secure an agreement by December, according to draft conclusions seen by POLITICO. Costa wants a deal before a series of high-stakes elections in 2027 complicate negotiations; capitals fear a deadline could weaken their bargaining power.

Most importantly, Costa is moving into the driving seat as budget talks enter their most politically sensitive stage. Watch for clues about a possible extraordinary summit in late November — and whether December remains a credible deadline or leaders quietly start preparing for negotiations to spill into 2027.

Thursday dinner: Making room for new members

Over dinner, leaders will tackle enlargement and the EU reforms needed to accommodate new members — after all, October’s summit has historically been devoted to the bloc’s hopefuls.

Montenegro is edging closer to completing accession negotiations, while progress elsewhere raises questions about whether the bloc is institutionally and financially ready to grow.

The Commission has outlined proposals to prepare the EU for enlargement, and leaders will discuss how internal reforms should accompany the accession process. Watch for a positive signal to Montenegro and commitments on reforming the bloc itself.

Friday morning: Ukraine’s wish list

The second day begins with Ukraine and an expected appearance by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Declarations of European solidarity are all but guaranteed. The more interesting question is what leaders are actually prepared to do.

Kyiv needs air defense systems, interceptors and financing as Russian attacks intensify. Leaders could discuss tougher action against Moscow’s shadow fleet and visa restrictions for Russians. And while EU financing for Ukraine has already been agreed for 2026, the country’s needs beyond that remain an increasingly pressing issue.

Could this mean reopening the debate on using frozen Russian assets to plug future funding gaps? That remains a question mark — although no immediate breakthrough is expected.

Friday pre-lunch: Defense and three dangerous waterways

Before breaking for lunch, leaders will turn to Russian hybrid attacks, maritime security and the Middle East.

In the Black Sea, recent attacks on civilian shipping threaten Ukraine’s crucial grain export route. Turkey has floated new protected shipping corridors, while countries including Romania and Bulgaria are pushing to give the issue more attention.

Will leaders back concrete measures or stop at condemnation? That’s the question.

Discussions then turn to the Middle East and two other critical shipping routes: the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. The fallout from the Iran–U.S. war, increased Iranian attacks around Hormuz and renewed Houthi threats in the Red Sea have disrupted global trade and energy flows.

The EU’s Aspides naval mission is short of vessels, and Kallas wants governments to contribute more. Watch whether leaders put ships behind their promises.

The broader Middle East discussion will also touch on Iran, Yemen, the West Bank and Lebanon.

Friday lunch: The migration showdown

Spain’s Pedro Sánchez, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen are worth watching as leaders discuss migration over lunch, following the crisis in Spain’s North African exclave of Ceuta.

Irregular arrivals have been declining, but disagreements remain over border crises, solidarity and tougher migration controls.

And with an election looming in Spain on Nov. 29, this could be Sánchez’s last tango — and a final chance to defend his government’s handling of the crisis while venting his frustration over the lack of European solidarity.

Watch whether the debate produces agreement or another political clash, as happened last time.

Bonus: Two pressers are better than one

With such a packed agenda, leaders won’t wait until the end of the summit for the usual joint press conference by von der Leyen and Costa. An additional one is planned for Thursday, after the budget debate.

On Thursday, watch Costa’s language on the budget deadline and whether von der Leyen offers any concrete measures on energy prices.

On Friday, look for promises of additional support for Ukraine, whether commitments on maritime security come with actual ships and resources — and commentary on how the migration showdown over lunch went.

Martina Sapio contributed to reporting.

BRUSSELS ― Political pressure is leaving Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz poorly placed to break the deadlock over the EU’s next seven-year budget.

As EU leaders gather for a two-day summit in Brussels from Thursday, the heads of the bloc’s two largest countries hold the keys to breaking the impasse between capitals that has persisted for months, as a Germany-led group advocating a smaller budget clashes with those like France which are resisting reductions.

“Delays and persisting divisions in the Council [representing EU governments] are worrying,” said Siegfried Mureșan, co-leading the European Parliament’s work on the MFF, the multiannual financial framework. “The EU budget can only be built through compromise … The faster we adopt the budget, the faster we can implement it and become more competitive, safer, help farmers and researchers and protect our borders and cyberspace.”

Sealing agreement on the EU’s long-term central budget, worth approximately €2 trillion, is the biggest challenge over the next few months facing leaders, all of whom must sign up to the final numbers. While it isn’t just up to Macron and Merz, getting the chiefs of the bloc’s two most powerful countries to overcome their differences would be a massive step in making all the pieces of the jigsaw slot into place.

But with Macron soon to leave office and Merz under severe pressure domestically, officials and diplomats in Brussels, Paris, and Berlin are playing down hopes of a Franco-German breakthrough this week.

“If the French and German leaders come hand in hand, I think that could change the game,” an EU diplomat, granted anonymity to speak frankly, said. “You need [Italian Prime Minister Giorgia] Meloni and [Polish Prime Minister Donald] Tusk, but it starts with Merz and Macron.”

While Merz and Macron may talk bilaterally during the summit, according to an Elysée official, there were no firm plans for a more formal sit-down, two EU diplomats said, adding they were expecting them to use the two-day meeting to hash out positions.

Domestic political weakness makes both leaders less likely to yield ground, three EU diplomats said.

Backfiring

For the French president, who leaves office next year, the fear is that making big concessions — like accepting cuts demanded by Berlin — could be weaponized by presidential candidates vying to replace him.

“Macron should not appear too conciliatory” in budget talks, said an ally of the French president. “It would backfire in the presidential campaign.”

Indeed, Macron may be wary of striking a deal that could lead to attacks from far-right leader Marine Le Pen or far-left rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon, both of whom argue that France receives too little value for its contributions to the EU pot.

During a press conference in Brussels on Wednesday evening, Le Pen accused negotiators of speeding up talks as “an attempt to stifle future democratic choices before they even take place” — effectively warning Macron against locking in an agreement before France’s April presidential election and votes in other major EU countries, such as Spain, which goes to the polls next month, and Italy, which is due to hold a poll next year.

“All this is not serious,” Le Pen told reporters on the 26th floor of The Hotel in Brussels.

It’s complicated

Merz faces similar political pressures.

Following humiliating state election defeats to the far-right Alternative for Germany party, the Chancellor is wary of concessions that could be framed as sending more taxpayer money to Brussels. Berlin prefers no deal at all to one that increases the overall budget, Merz said.

But Paris and Berlin’s positions may not be as far apart as public statements suggest.

“It’s complicated because France and Germany both need to step outside of their comfort zone,” said the Macron ally. “But it will end with a deal between France and Germany,”

France’s Europe minister Benjamin Haddad told reporters on Tuesday that discussions should focus on raising money via taxes, or “own resources” as they’re known in the EU —such as online gambling levies—rather than “massive cuts.”

However, Paris also wants to “stabilize national contributions” ― in other words, keep its own payments level.

Berlin was “open to examine new own resources, but we are more skeptical than the French that it will generate enough money,” a German official said.

France is betting that when push comes to shove, Merz will give in to pressure from other countries — and German captains of industry — to abandon his demands for far-reaching cuts.

“I see that there is also a real debate in Germany as well on the fact of having a position that would only be focused on cuts to the detriment of future policies,” an Elysée official said Wednesday. This week, Germany’s industrial lobby BDI and top industry groups urged their government to defend a more ambitious EU budget.

Macron and Merz showed unity earlier this month by jointly urging the European Commission to toughen its stance on China. But they still struggle to agree on another major deal—first reported by POLITICO in July—where Berlin accepts stronger “Made in Europe” rules in exchange for France backing relaxed car emission targets and the 2035 combustion engine ban.

EU Industry chief Stéphane Séjourné told POLITICO on Tuesday he supported the deal to finalize both files. Macron recently called the agreement “imminent,” suggesting progress depended on German coalition talks. But their failure to present an agreement at this week’s Paris car show confirms Paris and Berlin still disagree on terms, with the Elysée confirming negotiations remain ongoing.

BRUSSELS — Far-right leader Marine Le Pen pledged to turn the European Commission into a “secretariat” in the service of its member countries as part of her plan to slash the size and power of the European Union should she win France’s presidential election next year. 

“Over the past 10 years, France has seen the implementation of a European vision that is the exact opposite of the one I will champion,” Le Pen told reporters at a press conference in Brussels after a meeting with fellow European far-right leaders. “They wanted a powerful Europe. We got a powerless Europe. They wanted European sovereignty. All we’ve gotten is the dilution of national sovereignty.” 

Asked by POLITICO what downsizing the EU would look like in practice, the front-runner in the race to replace term-limited President Emmanuel Macron next year said the EU should pare back its operations in areas it has expanded in recent years such as foreign policy, security and public health.

Le Pen also promised to “stop” the bloc’s Green Deal, which she claimed was harming economic growth, and eliminate institutions like the European Committee of the Regions and the European Economic and Social Committee. 

“I’m not fooled by what the European Commission wants to do. The European Commission wants to turn itself into a state; we do not. And so we will stand in its way,” Le Pen said. 

Though Le Pen has abandoned her calls for France to leave the European Union, she remains deeply skeptical of the bloc and its ambition. 

She and her National Rally party last week said they would unilaterally slash France’s annual contribution to the EU budget by €11.1 billion as early as next year if Le Pen wins the presidency. 

Le Pen frames the move as necessary to help fix France’s disastrous public finances — she is proposing €140 billion in savings by 2032 — but her critics say such a move would set up a dramatic showdown with Brussels that could end with France leaving the bloc. 

Le Pen is in Brussels the day before EU leaders meet for key discussions over the bloc’s next seven-year budget, which Council President António Costa had hoped to get finalized before elections in France, Italy and Poland in 2027 that could derail the talks. 

But EU countries have weakened their commitment to wrap up negotiations by year-end amid a major split between frugal countries such as Germany, which want to further shrink the budget, and countries like France that support more EU spending.  

Le Pen once again reiterated her accusations that Brussels’ attempt to speed up budget talks — which would prevent France’s next government from having a say in the matter — is “a democratic scandal.” 

This developing story has been updated.

European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius urged EU countries to keep defense spending high in the EU’s next long-term budget — or face delays in the bloc’s military ramp up.

“Please support the next [multi-annual financial framework] defense lines,” he said, speaking at POLITICO’s European Resilience Summit. Otherwise, he added, “we shall have less possibilities to build the defense systems we need to have, or to build our infrastructure in space. That’s very clear.”

His comments come as EU leaders are set meet Thursday to discuss the EU’s next long-term budget from 2028 to 2034. Over the weekend, the Council of the EU’s Irish presidency proposed cutting the Commission’s original proposal by around 8% to appease a German-led camp demanding major cuts. The cuts overwhelmingly affect EU-wide priorities such as competitiveness, defense and foreign aid.

Earlier this week, national delegations watered down a commitment to secure a deal on the budget by the end of the year.

EU money is key to “incentivize member states to go together for joint procurement, for joint development, for European development,” the former Lithuanian prime minister argued. That’s especially needed as defense spending remains too national-oriented and the defense industry too fragmented, he lamented.

“If we have less of those possibilities to incentivize member states, we shall not be able to change that situation, which is now really still not at the level we need in terms of defragmentation of European development,” the commissioner said.

BRUSSELS — European governments have watered down a commitment to secure a deal over the bloc’s next seven-year budget by the end of the year, according to draft Council conclusions seen by POLITICO.

European Council President António Costa is pushing leaders to finalize negotiations during a summit in December — before elections in France, Italy and Poland in 2027 threaten to derail the talks.

But governments are unwilling to commit to the end-of-year deadline, fearing that time pressure will undermine their leverage in the negotiations.

Leaders are gathering in Brussels on Thursday and Friday to react for the first time to an Irish budget proposal that envisages €159 billion cuts. They will also discuss energy prices, enlargement, Ukraine and migration.

Several countries, including Italy and France, urged Costa’s team to drop a reference to “reaching a final agreement by the end of the year” from the Council conclusions, two EU diplomats who were briefed on the discussions told POLITICO on condition of anonymity.

During a parliamentary speech Wednesday, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said that “we will not sign an agreement that is not beneficial to us just to meet a deadline,” adding “we will sign an agreement only when it is right for Italy.”

There are also lingering concerns that Spain’s snap elections on Nov. 29 could work against the end-of-year deadline.

The new draft conclusions from Tuesday evening merely call for a “timely agreement,” adding that reaching a deal by the end of the year would allow EU funding to start flowing when the next budget takes effect in 2028. This is the same wording used in the Council conclusions from last June.

In another significant addition, EU leaders condemned U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Russian diesel in the conclusions.

They also expressed “regret” towards U.S sanctions against the International Criminal Court and pledged to engage with Washington to reverse these measures.

Mathieu Pollet contributed to reporting.

The European Commission’s bid to make the EU’s billions more responsive to the unknown crises of the future might also make them more prone to misuse, the EU’s top spending watchdog warned.

European Court of Auditors President Tony Murphy said key pillars of the Commission’s plan to overhaul the EU’s long-term budget would muddy the view for those in charge of making sure public money is spent as intended.

“It’s more difficult for us to follow the money,” Murphy said. “You’re saying to the member state, here’s a whole lot of money, and you make sure everything is okay. It’s sort of a self-policing.”

The warning comes as EU leaders continue fighting over the price tag for the EU’s post-2027 budget in Brussels this week — and as the auditors document an increase in misspending of taxpayer funds.

Yet separate from the budget’s bottom line is the debate over how that money gets divided. As a spending cycle marked by the pandemic, wars and climate-fueled disruption comes to a close, the Commission wants to make the next seven-year budget more agile by assigning about half of it — almost a trillion euros over seven years — to a single pot of money that countries can spend on objectives ranging from migration to agriculture and regional development.

Those agriculture and regional development funds — often delivered in the form of subsidies to farms and local projects — have long been vulnerable to fraud and misuse.

According to Murphy, giving capitals more leeway to shift spending would make spending even harder to track.

“There will be some flexibility, but at what cost?” he said in an interview. More of the oversight will depend on the checks each country has already put in place.

As it stands, misspending of the EU budget was on the rise last year, with errors affecting transactions for an estimated €5 billion according to the ECA’s latest report.

In the next EU budget, it might not be possible to even estimate such a number, Murphy warned, as each country’s auditors have different roles and ways of doing things. His head of cabinet, Wolfgang Stolz, added during the interview: “Year after year we have found that the work of these auditing authorities is not fully reliable.”

In a statement, the Commission defended its proposal, underlining that “key principles” of the current control system will remain in place. National authorities are “well-functioning,” the statement contended, but added that the Commission would maintain the right to ask capitals to “amend the plan or introduce correction mechanisms if needed.”

‘Mixed bag’

One of the Commission’s proposed innovations is putting the Common Agricultural Policy — historically a standalone budget line — into a behemoth umbrella fund known as the National and Regional Partnership Plans.

Murphy stressed that he’s not advocating for any model over the other. But as EU money increasingly merges with national budgets, it will be harder for Brussels to monitor where its money actually goes. The CAP is simpler to audit when “it’s not mixed up in this mixed bag,” Murphy said.

Headlines about farm subsidies paying for fake pastures in Greece and cash meant to support rural tourism in Slovakia instead going to luxury villas for the rich offer lurid illustrations of the challenge of policing these funds under the current system.

And the model for the new spending system — the EU’s post-Covid recovery fund — doesn’t bode well, Murphy said. While it became easier for countries to direct the funds where they were needed, the spending also became more opaque. The new national plans were designed using the same blueprint.

Under the current budget system, the ECA can physically visit a farm that receives EU funds. However, under the Covid recovery fund, the EU publishes only the top 100 beneficiaries each year.

“It’s not very transparent. I mean, where is the EU money actually ending up? That’s what matters,” Murphy said. “You have a fund where there are different policy areas with completely different objectives and timeframes, different delivery mechanisms and less predictability.”

EU lawmakers urged the bloc’s executive to robustly defend the International Criminal Court against U.S. sanctions in a letter sent to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday and obtained by POLITICO.

“We formally call for the urgent deployment of all instruments at our disposal to protect the International Criminal Court from the consequences of these sanctions,” reads the letter, signed by 58 MEPs, led by ECON chair and S&D lawmaker Aurore Lalucq and EPP Dutch lawmaker Dirk Gotink.

They ask the Commission boss “to draw a clear line towards the US administration.”

The Trump administration has repeatedly threatened to demolish the ICC “brick by brick.” Washington has already sanctioned several judges, including judges from France, Italy and Slovenia, after the court issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

U.S. sanctions announced on Friday risk to cut off the whole ICC from the financial system, which runs on the dollar, and from the majority of tech service providers.

Lawmakers said the sanctions are “an attack by a foreign power on an entity on EU territory, using our own financial system.” They want the Commission to activate a legislative shield known as Blocking Statute, that would prevent EU firms from complying with the U.S. sanctions as soon as a 180-day grace period ends.

After a meeting in Luxembourg, foreign affairs ministers agreed to seek pragmatic solutions to make it possible for EU firms to continue to work with the Court, according to two diplomats. MEPs called for a fiercer reaction.

“The survival of the values the European Union upholds is at stake, as is Europe’s autonomy and credibility in protecting its citizens and entities against foreign sanctions,” their letter reads. “This is about the survival of the Union itself.”

PARIS — Conservative presidential candidate Bruno Retailleau said France should seek a rebate on its contribution to the EU budget ahead of a key European summit in Brussels this week.

France pays more in to the EU budget than it gets out, but it is struggling to reduce a severe budget deficit.

“It’s crazy,” Retailleau, the leader of the conservative party Les Républicains, said at POLITICO’s Competitiveness Summit in Paris. “Why should we contribute more when we know how dire our public finances are?”

European leaders are meeting in Brussels on Thursday and Friday to discuss the bloc’s long-term budget, the Multiannual Financial Framework, which is pitting the so-called frugal countries against those who want a bigger EU budget. France sits in neither camp.

Retailleau singled out structural funds — money that is invested in poorer European regions — as an area where savings could be made.

“We’ve given billions to countries so they would catch up with us. Well they have, and in a couple of years they’ll probably have a higher standard of living. Sorry, but stop,” he said.

However, Retailleau, who is trailing center-right presidential candidate Edouard Philippe and far-right front-runner Marine Le Pen in the polls, did not put a figure on the rebate he would demand if he came to power. Le Pen, who is the front-runner ahead of next year’s presidential election, and her party have proposed slashing France’s yearly contribution by €11.1 billion as early as next year.

Retailleau said he would seek “a negotiation,” rather than unilaterally impose a lower contribution, as Le Pen says she would do.

“I’m not going to behave like Marine Le Pen, I’m pro-European,” said Retailleau.

Retailleau argued that France’s defense and nuclear deterrence investments should also be included in the country’s contribution calculation, because the concept of forward deterrence benefits France’s European neighbors.

BRUSSELS — Privacy regulators want people wearing smart glasses in public to look and sound like a truck backing down a road.

Europe’s powerful data regulators have made stringent new recommendations on how smart glasses should alert people that the wearable devices are filming, including a combination of flashing lights, audio alerts and notifications sent to the phones of people nearby.

The European Data Protection Board (EDPB), made up of national privacy regulators across Europe, issued a statement about smart glasses on Tuesday, following a meeting in Brussels.

Privacy regulators are putting forward a united front on smart glasses, as privacy concerns about the wearable technology have multiplied since videos made with them have begun spreading online without the knowledge or consent of those being filmed.

The statement is not legally binding but will guide how privacy regulators in Europe assess whether smart glasses users and manufacturers are complying with EU privacy rules like the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).

The regulators said smart glasses manufacturers should implement a combination of transparency measures to make other people aware that they are being recorded.

The measures may include lights or sounds when users are recording, requiring smart glasses users to activate them with an audible voice command, sending notifications to the smartphones of people nearby and other design “clues” to help people spot smart glasses.

The group of privacy regulators said that not only should users of smart glasses respect other people’s privacy but that the devices’ manufacturers and people providing connected apps or services may also be responsible for making sure they comply with privacy rules.

The GDPR applies to companies and organizations, and doesn’t apply when people process personal data in a household context. The regulators said this household exemption should be “narrowly interpreted” when it comes to smart glasses, and would not apply when someone shares photos or videos of others “to an indefinite number of persons on a public social media account.”

Tech firms like Meta have pitched their smart glasses to consumers on the basis that they are sleek and discreet. Meta has included an LED light in its smart glasses, which activates while recording, which it has said is a key privacy safeguard.

Samsung and Google have also recently announced that they’re collaborating on a new line of “intelligent eyewear” set to launch later this year, and Apple is reportedly aiming to hit the market with its own smart glasses by the end of 2027. 

The regulators’ statement could now force smart glasses manufacturers to reassess whether and how they sell smart glasses to European consumers. The EDPB called for industry-wide standards to be developed to make sure people are able to spot smart glasses and understand how they process data.

The European group of privacy regulators also commissioned a study into the social acceptability of smart glasses, published today.

FRANKFURT — European Central Bank staff want to know whether President Christine Lagarde breached her own ethics standards by plugging her forthcoming book at an ECB press conference last month.

The central bank’s staff committee raised its concerns with the ECB’s chief compliance officer in a letter dated Oct. 9 and seen by POLITICO. Staffers are seeking clarity on whether Lagarde breached the central bank’s code of conduct, and have raised concerns about “potential double standards” between the ethics requirements for staff and the ECB’s six executive board members. 

Lagarde mentioned her memoir, Lady First, during a monetary policy press conference on Sept. 10, when asked how she would keep the book’s commercial promotion separate from her ECB role. The Frenchwoman told reporters that “any marketing, publishing, commercial operations will happen either at weekends or on a day or two that I will take as a holiday.” 

She then added: “I strongly encourage you to buy the book.” The autobiography’s English version is expected to hit the shelves on Feb. 4. A spokesperson for the ECB said Lagarde has done nothing wrong.

The podium plug has fueled speculation that Lagarde may leave the ECB by the time the book is published, well before the end of her official term in October next year. Lagarde has declined to commit to staying for the full term, triggering an early race for the EU’s most powerful economic job.

The letter is the latest in a string of clashes between the central bank’s leadership and staff representatives, who are suing ECB management for allegedly violating freedom of speech within the central bank. 

The book plug might’ve been in jest. But staffers want to know whether writing and publishing the book falls within her “occupation” under Article 11.1 of the ECB’s statutes. If not, the union has asked whether the central bank’s Governing Council received and granted an exemption. The letter also asked whether the manuscript was vetted for confidential or policy-sensitive material, and whether promoting the book at an official event was consistent with the ECB’s code of conduct.

“President Lagarde informed the ECB’s Ethics Committee and the Compliance and Governance Officer about the book project and has received approval,” the spokesperson for the central bank said.

The staff committee reminded the ECB’s compliance chief that staff rules require employees to seek prior authorization before publishing material outside their work at the central bank. The rules also restrict employees from using ECB resources, or their position, for private activities.

While ECB staff is subject to a different set of rules than the bank’s leadership, the committee said that any differences in treatment should be “objectively justified” and proportionate, the letter said, adding that ethical expectations should become “more — not less — demanding as institutional responsibility increases.”

Similarly, the staff committee wanted to know whether Lagarde had disclosed any contact with the World Economic Forum and if any potential conflicts of interest had been assessed. The ECB president is rumored to be in talks about a leadership role at the global think tank, although this has never been confirmed. 

“The book project is a private activity, carried out in the President’s own time, and does not use ECB resources,” the ECB’s spokesperson said. The staff committee declined to comment.

European organizations have to reckon with how to keep up with the modern world without sacrificing sovereignty. Geopolitical instability, tightening regulatory expectations and the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) mean that, for many organizations, sovereignty now sits alongside resilience and business continuity in board-level risk discussions. The question they can no longer defer is how to harness the opportunities of the modern cloud without surrendering control over their own data. Answering it requires honesty about what sovereignty means, and about where it can actually be found.

A definition Europe can trust

The European Commission’s forthcoming Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA) is the right vehicle for that honesty: giving Europe a shared, enforceable definition of what “sovereign” actually means. Without such a definition, the market is filled with commercial offerings that claim the sovereignty label without delivering the substance, a practice described as “sovereignty washing.” This gap has led some organizations to treat open source as the answer. But open source software is a licensing model, not an operating model, and it doesn’t settle questions about infrastructure or jurisdiction or even reliability and access. It’s not a route out of dependency, it’s a different dependency on project sponsors and code maintainers. A definition gives policymakers a way to properly assess claims of sovereignty against a consistent standard rather than taking marketing at face value.

Europe should not wait for CADA to take effect before acting, though. European cloud service providers (CSPs) have been partnering with established technology providers to deliver real sovereign capability, without rebuilding the entire technology stack from scratch.

The best time to plant the sovereign tree was 10 years ago

If Europe wants to grow its industrial base, it has to support the ecosystem as it is now, not as it may in 10 years’ time. CADA’s own roadmap assumes roughly five to seven years to triple the EU’s data-center capacity. Providers who have already built capacity by blending EU capabilities with proven non-EU technologies would have to spend the intervening years relinquishing their growth. It is scale, not a shortage of skills or innovation, that is the biggest practical obstacle facing a stronger European cloud market. This is precisely why partnership with proven technology sources deserves a central place in the sovereignty debate rather than being treated as a second-best option.

Partnership shortens that timeline considerably, letting European CSPs deliver sovereign, scaled services now instead of waiting for domestic capacity to catch up organically. In Italy, IPZS, owned by the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance, is using this model to build a modern Digital Application Platform for the Italian EUDI wallet, a foundational EU digital identity initiative. It provides a live example of that model working in Europe today, at the scale and speed the policy window demands.

It is through scale that the local industrial base can deliver sovereign capabilities, compete, capture market share, and invest in developing and integrating home-grown technologies. Hoping for the alternative to happen, that is for a European technological stack to fully emerge and be adopted, is the equivalent of putting the cart before the horse.

The rules need to allow for a model that’s already working

Providers, such as evoila, are now operating well beyond Europe’s borders, alongside Uniserver. This shows the model working at a broader scale, combining local operational and jurisdictional control with proven technology. Sovereignty spans jurisdictional, technological, operational and supply-chain dimensions, and a partnership model can address all four while drawing on technology already proven at scale, rather than asking every layer to be rebuilt from first principles by a single European provider.

Alongside its cloud platform, developed in-house and operated from data centers in Europe under EU jurisdiction, IONOS also offers customers a dedicated VMware-based private cloud. It is also operated within the EU and designed to provide European data sovereignty and operational control.

Broadcom’s role in that model is deliberately narrow. It supplies the VMware cloud software layer to the CSP, while the CSP itself runs the infrastructure and holds the customer relationship, so that no European customer data passes through Broadcom or is subject to its access. Trust, in this model, follows the architecture rather than the brand. If CADA’s tiers implicitly assume that sovereignty can only be delivered by a fully European-built stack, CADA would shut out precisely the route that is already allowing Europe to scale fastest: partnership between local operators and proven technology providers.

The path forward

Europe does not have to choose between moving quickly and building sovereignty. The two are compatible, provided the legislation is calibrated to recognize it. As the European Parliament and European Council work on CADA, the priority should be for it to recognize and reward the partnership models already delivering sovereign capability across Europe today.

The above column is sponsor-generated content.

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BRUSSELS — Europe will lose out because of €159 billion in cuts to the bloc’s next long-term budget, the European Commission has warned days before EU leaders gather in Brussels for talks on the bloc’s future spending plans.

In an unusual attack, the Commission told governments that scrapping billions from several rainy-day funds will leave Europe less equipped to deal with crises during the next seven-year budget cycle, said four EU diplomats briefed on the talks, granted anonymity to speak freely about confidential discussions.

The Commission’s top budget official, Stéphanie Riso, delivered the warning to the EU’s 27 ambassadors during a closed-door meeting on Sunday, a day after the Irish presidency of the Council of the EU, which is steering the talks, proposed cutting around 8% from the bloc’s total budget from 2028 to 2034.

The Commission is “very concerned about cuts to flexibility,” said one of the EU diplomats.

As a result of the changes, “we will have no ways left to help farmers and regions when crises hit, because of climate change or geopolitical tensions,” they added.

EU ambassadors gathered to discuss the Irish plan, which envisages cuts of €159 billion in current prices from the Commission’s nearly €2 trillion proposal. Of that amount, €38 billion was cut from foreign aid, €75 billion was axed from competitiveness, and at least €22 billion was slashed from rainy-day funds.

But even those reductions were criticized as insufficient by a German-led group of states pushing for cuts of several hundred billion. During the closed-door meeting, a rival bloc of 17 countries, known as the Friends of Cohesion, welcomed the fact that the Irish presidency had spared agriculture and regional payments from cuts.  

EU governments are racing to finalize a deal on the budget among themselves by the end of the year — before elections in France, Italy and Poland that threaten to disrupt the negotiations.

A leaders’ summit on Thursday and Friday will give early signals as to whether the end-of-year deadline is achievable — or whether leaders should start preparing contingency plans.

One EU diplomat said the pressure is now on those leaders: “What could make a difference is if Friedrich Merz and Emmanuel Macron show up, hand-in-hand, and say we live in a new world.”

Cuts to the future

The Commission warned that cuts such as those put forward by Ireland will shrink the next budget — excluding repayments to post-Covid debt — below the current one.

The cuts overwhelmingly affect EU-wide priorities such as competitiveness, defense and foreign aid while leaving traditional policies untouched such as agriculture and regional payouts, which make up almost half the budget.

The changes undermine the Commission’s proposal, which envisaged more flexibility and steered hundreds of billions of euros toward new priorities.

In a further setback for the Commission, Ireland also downsized — or even scrapped — several financial cushions to shelter EU countries from unforeseen events such as natural disasters or public health emergencies.

The EU executive argues these changes will make spending in the next budget more rigid than in the current one — and potentially warrant a midterm review of the budget further down the line.

However, Ireland’s Europe Minister Thomas Byrne disputed this claim in a press conference on Saturday, saying the budget proposal “offers increased flexibility … in response to the clear call from member states for a simplified and more flexible, modern [budget].”

Another source of tension in the next budget came from Ireland’s watering down the link between EU payouts and economic reforms.

The Commission has repeatedly defended using regular budget payments as a carrot to nudge governments to undertake reforms that will make them more competitive.

However, Ireland’s ambassador to the EU, Aingeal O’Donoghue, said during the meeting that the new text will not link EU cash disbursements and “fiscal reforms,” according to one of the diplomats.

A man has been arrested as part of an investigation by Polish authorities into a possible attempt to attack Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz.

Writing on X, interior ministry spokesperson Karolina Galecka said Polish Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński and Special Services Minister Coordinator Tomasz Siemoniak had ordered measures to be taken following a “possible assassination attempt on the Prime Minister … as well as the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense.”

Tusk later confirmed on social media that a man had been arrested in connection with the alleged plot.

Officials from the police service, the government’s protection service and the Internal Security Agency held an emergency meeting Sunday at the agency’s counterterrorism center to discuss the situation.

Following the meeting, Jacek Dobrzynski, Siemoniak’s spokesperson, told reporters that authorities are “treating this matter very seriously.”

“Month after month, year after year, more and more threats and worrying messages are reaching the police ,” he said. “In this case, we are talking about a strong probability that these threats could have been acted upon.”

No further details on the alleged plot were released and it remains unclear who might be behind it.

Poland has been on the frontline of Russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine’s backers in Europe, and has suffered cyberattacks which have been attributed to Moscow.

In recent weeks, Poland has also seen a wave of violent incidents in schools, including the death of a school caretaker in a knife attack.

This story has been updated.

KYIV — Russia’s Vladimir Putin is preparing for a broader confrontation with Europe amid an uptick in the Kremlin’s hybrid attacks on the continent, Ukraine’s former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has warned.

In an interview with the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, Kuleba, who was Ukraine’s foreign policy chief from 2020 to 2024, said that Russia’s continued war preparations and anti-European propaganda are signs that Putin is planning attacks on other European countries.

“Anti-European hysteria is being fueled in Russia, which I interpret as the preparation for a broader conflict with the rest of Europe,” said Kuleba, before adding: “We [Ukrainians] don’t have to drag you — Putin will drag you into the war.”

European officials say Moscow has upped its hybrid campaign across the continent in recent months, using cyberattacks, sabotage and disinformation to disrupt critical infrastructure and weaken support for Ukraine.

Kuleba said the failed drone attack on the Leipzig airport in Germany in August was a sign of “growing preparation” for an offensive on the continent. “They see how your intelligence operates. They see how your security forces operate. They see how you react and they draw conclusions,” he added.

In the aftermath of the incident, the German government concluded that Moscow was responsible for the attack, and ordered a review of security around sensitive locations.

However, Kuleba, who stood down as Ukraine’s foreign policy chief in September 2024, does not think Russia is preparing a full-scale offensive beyond Ukraine. In his view, Moscow is more likely to launch an attack on NATO countries involving drones targeting key infrastructure that would test the alliance’s unity and preparedness.

“The truth is that Russia does not need 400,000 more people to wage that war. It needs five drones,” he said, adding that in the event of an attack, “[Europeans] can call for NATO consultations… can call for restraint. But this will only encourage Putin to make the next step … He will always have enough drone and missile capabilities.”

Kuleba no longer believes Putin can be persuaded to end the war through negotiations. “He’s not looking for a solution, for a pause, and there will be no moment when he will start looking for it,” he said, concluding: “Putin is a guarantee of war: anyone after Putin is a chance for peace.”

According to Kuleba, any attempts at negotiating with Putin, or pushing for peace, are a waste of time. “The sooner we come to terms with reality, the better policies we can develop to address it,” he said.

He noted that while Europe’s political culture is based on “a win-win approach” in which both sides can benefit, Putin’s outlook is very different: “For him, a solution that benefits both sides is not the best option. For him, the world works on the principle of victory and defeat. One side has to win and the other has to lose,” said Kuleba.

The former foreign minister also warned that Ukraine would face its worst ever winter as Moscow ups its attacks against civilians in a bid to break their spirit.

In recent months, Russian strikes have hit Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and transport links, including bridges over the Dnipro river, as well as homes and civilian sites such as bus stops, schools, postal depots and internet providers. The attacks have disrupted power, transport and daily life as winter approaches.

On Thursday, at least 33 people were killed in a Russian attack on two buses in Kramatorsk in Ukraine’s Donbas region.

Kuleba explained why he believed Moscow has now sharply escalated its airstrikes: “The bombing of cities is a direct consequence of Russia’s failure to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield.” He continued: “The main target of Russian drones and missiles is the Ukrainians’ will to resist — but also the will of Ukraine’s friends abroad to keep supporting it.”

He added:“They don’t just want to turn out the lights in Ukraine. They want to paralyze the country.”

Kuleba described the worst-case scenario in Ukraine as “the collapse of the systems that make life in a big city possible,” such as electricity, water and drainage services.

Could Russia succeed? “I believe Ukraine is too large, too mobile and too adaptable. That’s why I think we’ll get through this winter,” said Kuleba.

“The price will be much higher than last year’s.”

The Axel Springer Global Reporters Network harnesses the resources of the company’s newsrooms to publish ambitious scoops, investigations, interviews, opinion pieces and analysis. It allows journalists — including those from POLITICO, Business Insider, WELT, BILD, Onet, The Telegraph, and Fakt — to collaborate on major stories for an international audience of hundreds of millions across platforms: online, print, TV and audio. 

BRUSSELS — Germany and its allies rebuffed Ireland’s plan to downsize the bloc’s next seven-year budget, arguing that the proposed cuts are not enough.

On Saturday, the Irish presidency of the Council of the EU, which is steering the talks, proposed cutting around 8% from the bloc’s total budget from 2028 to 2034 in a bid to assuage a German-led camp demanding reductions of several hundred billions euros.

But Dublin’s hopes of facilitating a deal were immediately dashed by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, one the key players in the negotiations as his country contributes to approximately one-quarter of the bloc’s common budget.

“We are still a long way from an agreement. The amount of the new proposal is not a basis for an agreement. The EU budget must be affordable for those who bear the brunt of the financing,” Merz wrote in a statement on Saturday.

Germany leads a group of six “frugal” countries — Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland and Austria — which contribute 40% of the Union’s common budget.

Most frugal countries criticized Ireland’s proposed €159 billion in cuts in current prices from the Commission’s nearly €2 trillion proposal, saying they were insufficient.

Sweden’s Europe minister Jessica Rosencrantz described the negotiating document, or negobox, on X as a “wildly unaffordable increase,” as the overall amount would still be higher than the current budget.

Austrian Europe Minister Claudia Bauer echoed that criticism, saying that the new budget remained “miles away from an Austrian yes.”

Tensions will come to a head during a summit of EU leaders next Thursday and Friday, where they will discuss the negobox.

EU governments are racing to reach a budget deal among themselves by the end of the year — before elections in France, Italy and Poland in 2027 threaten to derail negotiations.

But Dutch Finance Minister Eelco Heinen warned on Saturday that “at this rate, there will be no deal by the end of the year.”

Ireland’s Minister of State for European Affairs Thomas Byrne, who leads the negotiations, dismissed criticism and described the proposal as a balanced compromise.

“The negotiating box acts to bridge the many differences between the Member states,” Byrne told reporters on Saturday.

Divided Union

The EU is split between frugal countries pushing for cuts across the board and a rival camp of southern and eastern states, the Friends of Cohesion, opposing reductions to farmers’ subsidies and regional payouts known as cohesion policy.

These areas account for almost half of the total budget and are politically sensitive because of pressure from farmers’ lobbies and regions.

In a concession to the 17 Friends of Cohesion, Ireland left the agriculture and regional budgets untouched and focused cuts on other priorities such as competitiveness, defense and development aid.

“There was a strong support for heading one [agriculture and cohesion] from almost all of the member states, including some of the countries who would be considered to be net contributors” to the budget, Byrne told reporters.

Reactions to the negobox from the Friends of Cohesion were more conciliatory than those of their frugal peers.

“It’s an excellent starting point to have recovered the money for the CAP [Common Agricultural Policy], but we’re still not satisfied,” said Italy’s Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida.

Poland’s Europe minister Ignacy Niemczycki welcomed the fact that his country “continues to receive the largest allocation,” but noted that the “change in the overall size of the budget does not match the EU’s ambitions.”

The frugals were also are disappointed that the cuts disproportionately target innovative policies such as defense and competitiveness, which they favor.

“They’re cutting the future to protect the past,” said one EU diplomat from the frugal camp.