BRÜSSEL — Die EU will sich im Wettbewerb mit China voraussichtlich besonders auf die Chemieindustrie und den Maschinenbau konzentrieren. Das sagten zwei mit den Gesprächen vertraute Personen gegenüber POLITICO.

EU-Kommissionspräsidentin Ursula von der Leyen werde den Staats- und Regierungschefs am Donnerstag voraussichtlich mitteilen, dass Brüssel nach Möglichkeiten sucht, diese beiden Branchen zu schützen, so die Personen, die wegen der Vertraulichkeit der Beratungen anonym bleiben wollten. Als derzeit wirksamstes Instrument gelten dabei Safeguards, da sie von der EU schnell und breit angewendet werden können.

Handelskommissar Maroš Šefčovič schloss vergangene Woche ein Abkommen mit Peking, wonach die jährlichen Importe chinesischer Hybridautos im nächsten Jahr auf 350.000 Einheiten begrenzt werden sollen – weniger als die Hälfte der für dieses Jahr erwarteten Lieferungen. Die Staats- und Regierungschefs haben gefordert, weitere Sektoren vor den stark steigenden chinesischen Importen zu schützen, da das bilaterale Handelsdefizit weiter wächst.

EU-Hersteller stehen unter dem Druck billiger Importe aus China, was zu einer Welle von Entlassungen und Werksschließungen im gesamten Binnenmarkt führt.

Bei einer Rede in Peking in der vergangenen Woche erklärte Šefčovič, das Abkommen über Hybridfahrzeuge solle als „Vorlage“ für andere Branchen dienen. Ein hochrangiger Beamter der Kommission teilte am Montag mit, dass die Kommission auch Beschwerden über chinesische Importe aus der Windkraft- und der Möbelindustrie erhalten habe.

Beamte der Kommission arbeiten derzeit an Schutzmaßnahmen für Kunststoffe und Epoxidharze, doch wurde bislang noch keine formelle Untersuchung eingeleitet, die den Schutzmaßnahmen vorausgehen müsste.

Dieser Artikel erschien zuerst auf Englisch.

Als Maroš Šefčovič im Juli den EU-Botschaftern seine Strategie für den Umgang mit China vorstellte, richtete er eine Warnung an die Regierungen, die auf strengere Handelsmaßnahmen gegen Peking drängten.

„Manchmal ist es sogar populär, einen Handelskrieg zu beginnen, aber es ist sehr schwierig, ihn zu beenden“, erinnerte sich der EU-Handelskommissar später in einem Interview mit POLITICO.

Drei Monate später ist Šefčovič ein erster Durchbruch gelungen: Letzte Woche wurde in Peking eine Vereinbarung erzielt, die Importe chinesischer Hybridautos drastisch zu reduzieren. Dieser symbolische Erfolg ist ein kleiner Schritt zur Stabilisierung der Handelsbeziehungen, die nach Ansicht Brüssels einen gefährlichen Wendepunkt erreicht haben.

Die Vereinbarung, die die Importe zunächst auf 350.000 Fahrzeuge pro Jahr begrenzt, stellt ein erhebliches Zugeständnis Pekings dar, dessen Autohersteller den europäischen Markt mit immer wettbewerbsfähigeren Fahrzeugen überlaufen haben.

Für Šefčovič, der im vergangenen Jahr mit Donald Trump einen Zollwaffenstillstand ausgehandelt hatte, deutet die Vereinbarung darauf hin, dass sich seine Strategie des Engagements, gestützt durch die Androhung härterer Handelsmaßnahmen, allmählich auszuzahlen beginnt.

Šefčovič hatte sich bei einem Treffen mit dem chinesischen Handelsminister Wang Wentao Ende Juni in Brüssel darauf geeinigt, den Handelsdialog aufzunehmen.

Der slowakische Kommissar hoffte, wenn er sich zuerst auf den Automobilsektor konzentrieren würde – einem Bereich, in dem die EU als einer der wenigen großen Märkte, die chinesischen Herstellern noch offenstehen, über Einfluss verfügt – einen vertrauensbildenden Erfolg zu erzielen. Erst später will er sich den schwierigeren Fragen zuwenden: den kritischen Rohstoffen bis hin zu Chinas enormen industriellen Überkapazitäten.

Gleichzeitig bemühte er sich darum, die europäischen Regierungen parallel hinter einer Initiative zur Stärkung der Handelsschutzmaßnahmen der EU zu vereinen. Šefčovič untermauerte seine Verhandlungsposition mit der Androhung härterer Maßnahmen, um das Handelsdefizit der EU gegenüber China in Höhe von einer Milliarde Euro pro Tag zu senken.

Der Hybrid-Deal ist jedoch nur der erste Schritt in einem weitaus größeren Wettstreit.

Die Staats- und Regierungschefs der EU treffen sich am Donnerstag in Brüssel, um Bilanz zu ziehen. Sie müssen abwägen, ob sie die Forderungen nach aggressiveren Maßnahmen zum Schutz der europäischen Industrie durchziehen.

Das Treffen wird zeigen, ob ein Kommissar, der seine Karriere darauf aufgebaut hat, Kompromisse mit schwierigen Partnern zu finden, die Unterstützung Europas für eine Strategie aufrechterhalten kann, deren Erfolg alles andere als sicher ist.

„Man hat es mit demselben Partner am Verhandlungstisch zu tun“, sagte Šefčovič im August in einem Interview mit POLITICO über die Risiken eines Handelskriegs. „Wenn man das also vermeiden kann, wäre das viel besser.“

Marktmacht

Šefčovičs erster Schritt bestand darin, sich auf einen Bereich zu konzentrieren, in dem Europa noch Einfluss hat: den Zugang zu seinem Markt mit 450 Millionen Menschen.

Chinas Hersteller haben sich zu globalen Kraftzentren entwickelt, kämpfen jedoch mit einer schwachen Nachfrage im Inland. Ein anhaltender Einbruch auf dem Immobilienmarkt belastet den Privatkonsum, während der gnadenlose Wettbewerb Preiskämpfe ausgelöst hat. Die Inlandsverkäufe von Pkw gingen im September gegenüber dem Vorjahr um 28 Prozent zurück.

Dadurch gewinnen die Märkte in Übersee zunehmend an Bedeutung. Da die USA chinesische Importe ausschließen, bleibt Europa einer der lukrativsten Märkte, der chinesischen Herstellern noch offensteht.

Šefčovič setzte darauf, dass Peking lieber Exportbeschränkungen akzeptieren würde, als den Zugang zum europäischen Markt gänzlich zu riskieren.

Er richtete sein Augenmerk auf den Automobilsektor, in dem chinesische Hersteller sehr schnell Fuß gefasst haben. Im Jahr 2024 hatten chinesische Autohersteller einen Anteil von lediglich 2 Prozent sowohl am europäischen Hybrid- als auch am Plug-in-Hybrid-Markt; bis zur ersten Hälfte des Jahres 2026 waren die jeweiligen Anteile laut Branchenzahlen auf 14 Prozent beziehungsweise 25 Prozent gestiegen.

Die Kommission bereitete sich darauf vor, die Einfuhr von Hybridfahrzeugen auch ohne ein Abkommen zu beschränken. Eine Verhandlungslösung bot Šefčovič jedoch auch einen politischen Mehrwert: den Beweis, dass der Dialog mit Peking zu greifbaren Ergebnissen führen kann.

Die Verhandlungen verliefen intensiv, wie eine mit den Gesprächen vertraute Person auf chinesischer Seite berichtete.

„Es war sehr, sehr hart“, sagte die Person, die anonym bleiben wollte, um offen über die hinter verschlossenen Türen stattfindenden Verhandlungen zu sprechen. „Beide Seiten hatten seit langem keine solche Intensität mehr erlebt. Keine Sommerpause, keine Feiertage. Sie arbeiteten rund um die Uhr, sogar noch ein oder zwei Tage vor Šefčovičs Reise nach Peking.“

Während Brüssel den Dialog suchte, wollte es Peking gleichzeitig davon überzeugen, dass es bereit sei, härtere Maßnahmen zu ergreifen, sollten die Verhandlungen scheitern.

Šefčovič hatte zuvor Pläne für ein neues „Diversifizierungsinstrument“ angekündigt, das Unternehmen in kritischen Sektoren dazu verpflichten würde, wesentliche Vorleistungen von mindestens drei Lieferanten zu beziehen – ein Schritt, um Chinas Fähigkeit einzuschränken, Europas Abhängigkeit von seinen kritischen Rohstoffen auszunutzen.

Dann, nur drei Tage vor Šefčovičs Reise nach Peking, erhöhten Frankreich und Deutschland den Druck.

Präsident Emmanuel Macron und Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz forderten eine wirkungsvolle neue Handelswaffe, die es Brüssel ermöglichen würde, Ländern, denen unlautere Wettbewerbsvorteile vorgeworfen werden, innerhalb weniger Tage den Zugang zum europäischen Markt zu beschränken – oder sogar ganz zu sperren.

Der Vorschlag nannte China zwar nicht ausdrücklich, doch Peking war das offensichtliche Ziel.

Den Zusammenhalt wahren

Mehreren Diplomaten zufolge werden die EU-Staats- und Regierungschefs die Einigung voraussichtlich begrüßen, die Kommission jedoch gleichzeitig dazu drängen, rasch zu handeln, um die Handelsschutzmaßnahmen der Union zu stärken. Die in Peking erzielte Einigung hat Zeit gewonnen, aber noch nicht geklärt, wie weit Brüssel gehen sollte, falls die chinesischen Exporte weiter steigen oder die Verhandlungen ins Stocken geraten.

„Wir verlieren Tausende von Arbeitsplätzen in der Industrie; Olivenöl und Eiscreme werden das Kernproblem nicht lösen“, sagte ein EU-Diplomat, nachdem Šefčovič die Botschafter am Sonntag informiert hatte, und bezog sich dabei auf die gemeldeten Ergebnisse der Gespräche.

Ein hochrangiger deutscher Beamter begrüßte das Abkommen von Peking als einen ersten Schritt in die richtige Richtung. „Es ist ein positives Zeichen – das natürlich das Problem des Handelsdefizits mit China nicht vollständig löst“, sagte der Beamte.

Doch Berlins Unterstützung für eine härtere Linie könnte sich als kurzlebig erweisen.

Alicia García-Herrero, Senior Fellow beim Thinktank Bruegel, argumentierte, dass Pekings Zugeständnisse darauf ausgelegt gewesen seien, Berlin zu beschwichtigen, angesichts der Bedeutung der Automobilindustrie für die deutsche Wirtschaft.

„Ich hoffe nur, dass Merz nicht von dem Brief abrückt, den er an die Kommission geschickt hat“, sagte sie. Da der deutsche Bundeskanzler im eigenen Land politisch geschwächt ist, befürchtet García-Herrero, dass er zögern könnte, eine langwierige Konfrontation zu riskieren: „Ich mache mir Sorgen, dass Merz diesen schnellen Erfolg nutzen und sich aus dem Staub machen wird.“

Damit steht Šefčovič vor einem Balanceakt: Er muss die EU-Regierungen bei der Fortsetzung des Engagements mit China an Bord halten und gleichzeitig die glaubwürdige Drohung mit härteren Maßnahmen aufrechterhalten, falls die Gespräche scheitern sollten.

„Ich gehe davon aus, dass [die Staats- und Regierungschefs] der Kommission grünes Licht geben werden, weitere handelspolitische Schutzmaßnahmen voranzutreiben. China könnte dies als Verrat auffassen. Sollte das der Fall sein, könnten wir sehr schnell wieder in einen Konflikt geraten“, sagte Noah Barkin, Senior Advisor im China-Team der Rhodium Group.

Der bevorstehende Kampf

Für Šefčovič besteht die Herausforderung nun darin, einen begrenzten Durchbruch bei den Autos in eine umfassendere Neuausrichtung des Handels mit China umzumünzen – und Europa gleichzeitig Zeit zu verschaffen, seine Abwehrmaßnahmen zu stärken, falls die Verhandlungen scheitern sollten.

„Es spricht einiges dafür, China das anzutun, was China Europa jahrelang angetan hat – Peking in Dialogen und Verfahren zu verzetteln, während Europa seine Instrumente bereitstellt. Aber die EU muss die Zeit, die diese Gespräche bieten, voll ausschöpfen“, sagte Barkin von Rhodium.

Der Handelskommissar wird voraussichtlich im Januar ein Videogespräch mit Wang führen, bevor sich die beiden im kommenden März erneut treffen. Diese Gespräche werden zeigen, ob Peking bereit ist, weitere Zugeständnisse in Sektoren zu machen, in denen die europäische Industrie zunehmend in die Defensive gerät, darunter die Chemieindustrie.

Eine weitere Priorität sind kritische Rohstoffe, bei denen China zugestimmt hat, weiterhin Ausfuhrlizenzen für Seltene Erden zu erteilen. Pekings Kontrolle über deren Versorgung verschafft dem Land erheblichen Einfluss auf europäische Hersteller, was die Grenzen von Šefčovičs Verhandlungsposition deutlich macht.

Die Kommission bereitet zudem zwei Vorschläge für Dezember vor: das Diversifizierungsinstrument, das darauf abzielt, die Abhängigkeit von chinesischen Lieferungen zu verringern, und einen Mechanismus zum Schutz europäischer Industrien und Regionen vor Vergeltungsmaßnahmen.

Das Ausmaß der Herausforderung ist gewaltig: Chinesische Importe von Hybridautos beliefen sich im ersten Halbjahr 2026 auf 6,7 Milliarden Euro, während das Handelsdefizit zwischen der EU und China im vergangenen Jahr bei 360 Milliarden Euro lag. Das Abkommen verschafft den europäischen Automobilherstellern zwar eine gewisse Erleichterung, trägt aber kaum dazu bei, das zugrunde liegende Ungleichgewicht zu beheben.

Brüssel hofft, dass die Schutzmaßnahmen für Hybridfahrzeuge als Blaupause für den Schutz anderer Branchen dienen können, die mit einem Anstieg chinesischer Importe konfrontiert sind.

„Wir hören auf unsere Industrie. Dazu gehören die chemische Industrie, die Windkraftbranche und die Möbelindustrie. Wir wissen, wo es zu einem Anstieg kommt, und wir wissen, was uns im Hinblick auf unsere Deindustrialisierung am härtesten trifft“, sagte ein hochrangiger Kommissionsbeamter am Montag.

Šefčovič räumte in seinem Interview im August die Grenzen des Dialogs ein und warnte, dass Verhandlungen ohne greifbare Fortschritte immer schwieriger aufrechtzuerhalten seien.

„Es wäre sehr wichtig, zurückzukommen und zu sagen, dass das Problem anerkannt wird und es bereits einige Pilotprojekte gibt, die wir testen wollen, um zu sehen, ob sie funktionieren“, sagte er.

„Aber wenn einfach nichts geschieht, dann wird es für uns natürlich viel schwieriger sein, nur über diese Themen zu sprechen.“

Jordyn Dahl in Brüssel und Hans von der Burchard in Berlin haben zu diesem Artikel beigetragen.

When Maroš Šefčovič set out his strategy for engaging with China to European Union ambassadors in July, he had a warning for governments urging tougher action on trade against Beijing.

“Sometimes, it’s even popular to start a trade war, but it’s very difficult to finish it,” the EU trade chief recalled later in an interview with POLITICO.

Three months on, Šefčovič has secured a first breakthrough, reaching a deal in Beijing last week to sharply reduce imports of Chinese hybrid cars. The symbolic win marks a small step toward stabilizing a trading relationship that Brussels believes has reached a dangerous tipping point.

The agreement, which will initially cap imports at 350,000 vehicles a year, marks a significant concession from Beijing, whose carmakers have been flooding the European market with increasingly competitive vehicles. 

For Šefčovič, who negotiated last year’s tariff truce with Donald Trump, the agreement suggests his strategy of engagement backed by the threat of tougher trade measures may be starting to pay off.

Šefčovič agreed to launch the trade dialogue at a meeting with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in Brussels in late June.

By focusing initially on cars — an area where the EU has leverage as one of the few major markets still open to Chinese manufacturers — the Slovak commissioner hoped to secure a confidence-building win before tackling thornier questions, from critical raw materials to China’s vast industrial overcapacity.

At the same time, he worked to coalesce European governments behind a parallel effort to strengthen the bloc’s trade defenses, reinforcing his negotiating position with the threat of tougher action to bring down the EU’s €1 billion-a-day trade deficit with China.

The hybrid deal, however, is only the opening move in a much bigger contest.

EU leaders meet in Brussels on Thursday to take stock, weighing the benefits of continued engagement against demands for more aggressive action to protect European industry from a surge in Chinese imports.

The meeting will test whether a commissioner who has made a career of finding compromises with difficult partners can maintain Europe’s support for a strategy whose success is far from assured.

“You have to deal with the same partner across the table,” Šefčovič said of the risks of starting a trade war, in the interview with POLITICO in August. “So if you can avoid this, it would be much better.”

Market power

Šefčovič’s opening move was to focus on an area where Europe still has leverage: access to its market of 450 million people.

China’s fiercely competitive manufacturers have become global powerhouses, but they are struggling with weak demand at home. A prolonged property slump has weighed on consumer spending, while cutthroat competition has triggered price wars. Domestic sales of passenger vehicles fell 28% in September from a year earlier.

That makes overseas markets increasingly important. With the U.S. shutting out Chinese imports, Europe remains one of the most lucrative markets still open to Chinese manufacturers.

Šefčovič gambled that Beijing would prefer to accept limits on exports rather than risk losing access to the European market altogether.

He set his sights on the automotive sector, where Chinese manufacturers have been making rapid inroads. Chinese carmakers accounted for just 2% of both the European hybrid and plug-in hybrid markets in 2024; by the first half of 2026, their respective shares had risen to 14% and 25%, industry figures show.

The Commission was preparing to restrict hybrid imports even without an agreement. But a negotiated settlement also offered Šefčovič something valuable politically: evidence that engagement with Beijing could deliver tangible results.

The negotiations were intense, according to a person familiar with the talks on the Chinese side.

“It was very, very tough,” the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door negotiations. “Both sides hadn’t seen such intensity in a long time. No summer break, no holidays. They worked around the clock even one, two days prior to Šefčovič’s trip to Beijing.”

While pursuing dialogue, Brussels also wanted to convince Beijing that it was prepared to take tougher action if the negotiations failed.

Šefčovič had earlier flagged plans for a new “diversification instrument” that would require businesses in critical sectors to source essential inputs from at least three suppliers — a move to reduce China’s ability to exploit Europe’s dependence on its critical raw materials.

Then, just three days before Šefčovič’s trip to Beijing, France and Germany raised the stakes.

President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for a powerful new trade weapon that would allow Brussels to restrict — or even shut off — access to the European market within days for countries deemed to have severely distorted the bloc’s single market.

The proposal did not explicitly name China, but Beijing was its obvious target. 

Keeping it together

EU leaders are expected to welcome the agreement but also press the Commission to act quickly to strengthen the bloc’s trade defenses, according to several diplomats. The understanding reached in Beijing has bought time, but hasn’t settled how far Brussels should go if Chinese exports keep rising or negotiations stall.

“We’re losing thousands of jobs in industry; olive oil and ice cream won’t solve the core issue,” said one EU diplomat after Šefčovič briefed ambassadors on Sunday, referring to reported deliverables from the talks.

A senior German official welcomed the Beijing deal as a first step in the right direction. “It’s a positive sign — which, of course, doesn’t fully solve the problem of the trade deficit with China,” the official said.

But Berlin’s support for a tougher line might prove short-lived.

Alicia García-Herrero, a senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank, argued that Beijing’s concessions had been calculated to assuage Berlin, given the importance of the automotive industry to the German economy.

“I’m just hoping Merz doesn’t turn away from the letter he sent to the Commission,” she said. With the German chancellor politically weakened at home, García-Herrero fears he may be reluctant to risk a prolonged confrontation: “I worry Merz will take this quick win and run.”

That leaves Šefčovič facing a balancing act: keeping EU governments on board with continued engagement with China while maintaining a credible threat of tougher action if the talks break down. 

“I expect [leaders] to give the Commission a nod to move ahead with other trade defense measures. China may see this as a betrayal. If that is the case, we could return to conflict very quickly,” said Noah Barkin, a senior adviser at the Rhodium Group’s China practice.

The battle ahead

For Šefčovič, the challenge now is to turn a limited breakthrough on cars into a broader rebalancing of trade with China — while buying Europe time to strengthen its defenses should the negotiations fail.

“There is an argument for doing to China what China had done to Europe for years — bogging Beijing down in dialogue and process while Europe gets its tools in place. But the EU needs to make full use of the time that these talks provide,” said Rhodium’s Barkin. 

The trade chief is expected to hold a video call with Wang in January, before the two meet again next March. Those talks will test whether Beijing is prepared to make further concessions in sectors where European industry is increasingly on the defensive, including chemicals.

Another priority is critical raw materials, where China has agreed to continue issuing export licenses for rare earths. Beijing’s grip on their supply gives it considerable leverage over European manufacturers, underscoring the limits of Šefčovič’s negotiating position.

The Commission is also preparing two proposals for December: the diversification instrument, aimed at reducing dependence on Chinese supplies, and a mechanism to shield European industries and regions from retaliation.

The scale of the challenge is daunting. Chinese hybrid imports were worth €6.7 billion in the first half of 2026, against an EU-China trade deficit of €360 billion last year. The agreement offers some relief to European automakers but does little to address the underlying imbalance.

Brussels hopes the hybrid safeguard can serve as a blueprint for protecting other industries facing a surge in Chinese imports.

“We hear our industry. That includes the chemical industry, the wind industry, the furniture industry. We know where there’s a surge, and we know what hits the hardest in terms of our deindustrialization,” a senior Commission official said on Monday.

Šefčovič acknowledged the limits of dialogue in his August interview, warning that negotiations would become harder to sustain without tangible progress.

“What would be very important is to come back to say there is acknowledgment of the issue and there are already some pilot schemes which we want to test and to see if they are working,” he said.

“But if simply there will be no action, then of course it will be much more difficult for us just to talk about these issues.”

Jordyn Dahl in Brussels and Hans von der Burchard in Berlin contributed reporting. 

The European Union and China reached an agreement on Friday that will curb China’s booming hybrid car exports, delivering a breakthrough in negotiations aimed at rebalancing their trade relationship.

The announcement came as Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič wrapped up two days of talks in Beijing, the culmination of a push launched in June to narrow the bloc’s €1 billion-a-day trade deficit with China. 

The deal marks a win for the EU executive, which has been under pressure to secure concessions from Beijing. Going into the talks, France and Germany strengthened Šefčovič’s hand by calling for the EU to take tough action on trade if China failed to curb a growing export glut.

Speaking in Beijing, the commissioner said the two sides had reached an agreement that would help to shield European automakers from low-price Chinese competition. He declined to enter into specifics before EU leaders officially mandate the EU executive to move forward. 

“We have reached a shared understanding to moderate China’s export of hybrids and plug-in hybrids to the European Union. This opens the prospect of cutting China’s exports by more than a half,” Šefčovič told reporters. 

The estimate was based on projections of how Chinese exports would grow over the next four years without the agreement. In practical terms, it would mean that “several millions of car exports from China to the European Union” would be prevented, he explained.

China’s Commerce Ministry highlighted the understanding on hybrids in a parallel 16-point statement, but offered no details on how exports would be restrained. It said the two sides “will continue to strengthen communication and cooperation under the trade monitoring mechanism and further leverage dialogue mechanisms to enhance mutual understanding.” 

Šefčovič declined to elaborate when asked whether the deal would allow the EU to impose safeguards — a mixture of import quotas and tariffs — a step that Brussels has been considering. He said the arrangement would comply with the rules of the World Trade Organization.

First step

Šefčovič said that Beijing had also agreed to lower duties on European goods worth €4 billion, ranging from olive oil to footwear, a move that would save exporters €225 million. 

“It is a crucial first step,” he said. “But only a first step in the process of rebalancing.” 

The Slovak commissioner said he would report back to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, along with EU leaders, when they meet for a summit in Brussels next Thursday.

He had focused on cars as a key deliverable going into meetings in Beijing with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and Vice Prime Minister He Lifeng.

Chinese auto exports to Europe have been booming, accounting in August for one in eight cars sold in the bloc — mainly driven by sales of hybrids. Europe’s own automotive industry is feeling the pressure, with Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz recently announcing job cuts and plant closures.

Aside from the deal on hybrids, Beijing said in its statement that it was “willing to continue” fast-tracking licenses to export rare earth elements to the EU. Automakers had been forced to shut down assembly lines after China temporarily restricted exports in response to U.S. tariffs last year. China dominates the production and processing of rare earths.

“We have reached a shared understanding to further facilitate China’s export licensing for rare earths and permanent magnets,” Šefčovič said. 

Road ahead

Brussels sees the agreement on hybrid electric vehicles as a blueprint that could be replicated to shield further EU sectors currently under strain, such as chemicals or machinery. The two sides plan to meet again in March 2027, and will hold a video call in January. 

The agreement on one of the EU’s top negotiating targets significantly reduces the risk of an escalation in trade tensions that could have led to a tit-for-tat round of retaliation. It remains to be seen whether the EU will act swiftly on the Franco-German call to empower Brussels to shut out exports from countries that destabilize its single market.

“Public opinion and the leaders clearly expect very fast action from our side. I am glad to say that the Chinese partners appreciated this very strong political argument, and therefore, we can proceed through the negotiated solution,” said Šefčovič.

Other areas of agreement include exploring easier market access for European medical devices, as well as promises by Beijing to scale back sweeping disease-control measures that have restricted European meat and livestock exports. 

While the deal will cool the most immediate tensions, a wider resolution to the economic imbalances that fueled the conflict remains distant. The EU’s trade deficit with China totaled nearly €360 billion in 2025, and is already up 12 percent so far this year.  

China’s automotive exports to the EU, which totaled €15.1 billion last year, are only a fraction of that.

This article has been updated.

BRUSSELS — European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič opened two days of talks in Beijing on Thursday aimed at rebalancing a gaping trade deficit, with failure to reach a deal likely to test Brussels’ resolve to impose tougher trade restrictions.

The meeting marks the final round of an effort launched in June to reset the lopsided trading relationship, and will hinge on whether China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao is prepared to make substantial concessions.

If no agreement can be reached to narrow the EU’s €1 billion-a-day goods trade deficit, Brussels and Beijing could find themselves on a collision course. EU leaders will review the outcome of the talks at a summit in Brussels next Thursday, where they will consider next steps.

Arriving in China, Šefčovič said his goal was to balance what he called an unsustainable trade deficit. Heading into a meeting with Wang, he said it was crucial that the talks deliver “tangible outcomes.”

The discussions have zeroed in on cars, with Chinese exports increasingly eating into the market share of European automakers. In August, one in eight cars bought in the bloc was Chinese, thanks largely to a boom in sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

European negotiators have been pushing China to commit to some form of export restraint — in particular for hybrids. Unlike Chinese-made battery-electric vehicles, which were hit with extra countervailing duties in 2024, plug-in hybrids are not subject to such measures.

Without meaningful commitments from Beijing, the Commission has warned it will resort to unilateral trade restrictions. For cars, it is considering safeguard measures that would mix import quotas and tariffs to protect European automakers.

Chemicals are next. Industry Commissioner Stéphane Séjourné said Thursday that the Commission plans to introduce targeted safeguards on plastics and composite materials, subject to a request from EU governments that Brussels do so.

Wind in his sails 

Šefčovič flew to Beijing with the backing of the leaders of Europe’s two biggest economies — France and Germany — to take a tougher approach to trade.

In a joint appeal on Monday, President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the Commission should be given a freer hand to shut off access to the EU for goods from countries that distort the bloc’s single market.

While the two leaders did not mention China in their letter to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, there was no mistaking the target of their proposed trade “kill switch,” which could be blocked only by a qualified majority of EU countries.

The EU already has a powerful trade weapon in its Anti-Coercion Instrument, designed to counter economic bullying by foreign powers. 

But Brussels has yet to muster broad support from member countries to deploy it, most recently in January when U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to seize Greenland, a Danish territory.

The EU’s difficulty in responding swiftly to trade threats has heightened concerns about a surge in Chinese exports that European officials say benefit from unfair government subsidies. With Trump hiking U.S. tariffs, ever more Chinese exports are heading to Europe — increasing pressure on industries that are already being forced to retrench.

Europe’s heavy dependence on China for processed rare earths and other critical raw materials also leaves it vulnerable to retaliation should relations deteriorate.

“If we aren’t willing to fix the way our model works, then we’ll be destroyed,” said one EU diplomat, summing up the concerns flooding Brussels.

“What’s the point of having [more tools] if the Chinese can shut down our strategic production in a matter of days?”

Low expectations

Although Šefčovič entered the talks strengthened by the Franco-German letter, a second diplomat said they didn’t foresee a deal with Beijing this week.

“He knows that a lot of member states are behind the Franco-German push,” the diplomat said, adding that this “has been seen in China.” 

But Beijing has little room to compromise, given its reliance on exports to sustain growth amid weak domestic demand and a prolonged property slump.

“The Chinese side is starting to recognize that there is a problem. But I don’t think they are ready to enter into a substantial deal,” said Gunnar Wiegand, a former head of the EU diplomatic service’s Asia-Pacific department.

Wiegand, now a visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said Šefčovič had earned a reputation as a dealmaker in talks on Britain’s exit from the EU and in last year’s trade deal with Trump. This time, however, “both sides are bound by their own circumstances,” he said.

Europe is desperate to halt the erosion of its industrial base, while China remains heavily dependent on exports to sustain economic growth. 

“The Chinese are going to object to being singled out. Even if a deal with the EU would be the most rational solution, other important markets for Chinese exports, such as ASEAN countries, will start asking the same. It will undercut their global market,” he said. 

BERLIN — The European Commission needs the power to act much faster against trade threats, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron urged in a joint letter on Monday.

The leaders of the EU’s two most powerful and populous countries want Brussels to be able to act more quickly and decisively in a trade confrontation — while making it harder for EU capitals to block action.

The proposal seeks to strengthen the hand of Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, who flies to Beijing on Thursday for the final round of talks in a four-month process where Brussels is seeking to rebalance the EU’s trading relationship with China.

Merz and Macron said the Commission should be empowered to restrict, or even completely cut off, imports from countries seen as creating “severe and systematic distortions” in the single market. In their letter and a joint position paper, they call for urgent action, saying the EU’s existing trade defense toolbox “does not suffice anymore.”

“Without delaying the full use of the existing set of instruments, we need a comprehensive framework to complement our toolbox with new legal instruments — in a lean and non-bureaucratic way,” they wrote.

One senior German official, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, described the tool as a “second-strike weapon” that could be deployed in the event of an escalating trade war.

“We can see that certain players have important, powerful instruments at their disposal,” the official said, pointing to the sweeping so-called Section 301 tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s dominance of critical-mineral supply chains. The EU, they explained, needed its own countermeasures. 

“When trade rules are not respected, we need to be credible regarding the fact that access to the internal market cannot be guaranteed,” said an official from Macron’s office, noting that “dialogue does not preclude our determination to protect our most vulnerable sectors.” 

The French official said the procedure for activating the new measures should be based on the one that already exists for anti-dumping cases. This allows the Commission to take action without first seeking a green light from EU capitals. 

“We can’t keep waiting — for months or sometimes even years,” the French official said. 

A new bazooka

While the joint letter doesn’t mention China by name, it clearly relates to the bloc’s €1-billion-a-day trade deficit with the world’s leading exporter and growing concerns about the impact of Chinese overcapacity on European industry.

The existing Anti-Coercion Instrument, also known as the EU’s trade “bazooka,” in theory gives the Commission enormous powers to restrict imports in response to actions that are considered economic coercion.

In practice, however, activating the ACI requires months of investigation and the support of a qualified majority of EU governments. Divisions among capitals have previously complicated efforts to agree on trade measures targeting China.

The new instrument proposed by Berlin and Paris — which could either update or replace the ACI — would make it much harder for EU member countries to block swift action. Commission measures would stand unless a “reverse” qualified majority of countries voted to block them. 

Bernd Lange, who heads the European Parliament’s trade committee, welcomed the Franco-German letter as a step forward. The German Social Democrat negotiated on behalf of the Parliament during the development of the ACI, pushing unsuccessfully to give the Commission more leeway to activate the instrument. 

“It was so complicated,” Lange said. “If there is now a shift in the mindset of the Council, it’s really good.” 

Watershed moment

Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, called the letter and position paper a “watershed” moment. 

“What the two leading European capitals are signaling is that they want to flip the switch and have a more structured, comprehensive set of policies to slow down the impact of the second China shock on European industry,” said Tordoir, who has advocated that Europe adopt U.S.-style 301 tariffs in the past.  

Germany’s shift toward a more aggressive trade posture is particularly significant given Berlin’s previous reluctance to back stronger EU trade defenses.

“One of the major actors watering down the ACI back in the day was in fact Germany,” Tordoir said. “Germany has transitioned from hesitator-in-chief on stronger European trade tools to actively backing a number of concrete proposals.” 

The document is part of broader Franco-German negotiations on the EU’s top economic files. The talks were launched by Macron and Merz after a joint ministerial meeting in Cologne in July, when the two leaders said they were converging on a more aggressive stance toward China. 

The Franco-German letter also calls on the Commission to take new steps to diversify European supply chains and lessen dependency on Chinese imports. The Berlaymont has already announced that it is developing a diversification instrument aimed at encouraging manufacturers to wean themselves off cheap Chinese imports. It plans to publish the proposal by the end of the year.

EU leaders will discuss the outcome of Šefčovič’s trade mission to China at a summit in Brussels on Oct. 15-16. 

Hans von der Burchard reported from Berlin, Giorgio Leali from Paris and Carlo Martuscelli, Jordyn Dahl and Camille Gijs from Brussels. This article has been updated.