KYIV — Russia’s Vladimir Putin is preparing for a broader confrontation with Europe amid an uptick in the Kremlin’s hybrid attacks on the continent, Ukraine’s former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has warned.

In an interview with the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, Kuleba, who was Ukraine’s foreign policy chief from 2020 to 2024, said that Russia’s continued war preparations and anti-European propaganda are signs that Putin is planning attacks on other European countries.

“Anti-European hysteria is being fueled in Russia, which I interpret as the preparation for a broader conflict with the rest of Europe,” said Kuleba, before adding: “We [Ukrainians] don’t have to drag you — Putin will drag you into the war.”

European officials say Moscow has upped its hybrid campaign across the continent in recent months, using cyberattacks, sabotage and disinformation to disrupt critical infrastructure and weaken support for Ukraine.

Kuleba said the failed drone attack on the Leipzig airport in Germany in August was a sign of “growing preparation” for an offensive on the continent. “They see how your intelligence operates. They see how your security forces operate. They see how you react and they draw conclusions,” he added.

In the aftermath of the incident, the German government concluded that Moscow was responsible for the attack, and ordered a review of security around sensitive locations.

However, Kuleba, who stood down as Ukraine’s foreign policy chief in September 2024, does not think Russia is preparing a full-scale offensive beyond Ukraine. In his view, Moscow is more likely to launch an attack on NATO countries involving drones targeting key infrastructure that would test the alliance’s unity and preparedness.

“The truth is that Russia does not need 400,000 more people to wage that war. It needs five drones,” he said, adding that in the event of an attack, “[Europeans] can call for NATO consultations… can call for restraint. But this will only encourage Putin to make the next step … He will always have enough drone and missile capabilities.”

Kuleba no longer believes Putin can be persuaded to end the war through negotiations. “He’s not looking for a solution, for a pause, and there will be no moment when he will start looking for it,” he said, concluding: “Putin is a guarantee of war: anyone after Putin is a chance for peace.”

According to Kuleba, any attempts at negotiating with Putin, or pushing for peace, are a waste of time. “The sooner we come to terms with reality, the better policies we can develop to address it,” he said.

He noted that while Europe’s political culture is based on “a win-win approach” in which both sides can benefit, Putin’s outlook is very different: “For him, a solution that benefits both sides is not the best option. For him, the world works on the principle of victory and defeat. One side has to win and the other has to lose,” said Kuleba.

The former foreign minister also warned that Ukraine would face its worst ever winter as Moscow ups its attacks against civilians in a bid to break their spirit.

In recent months, Russian strikes have hit Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and transport links, including bridges over the Dnipro river, as well as homes and civilian sites such as bus stops, schools, postal depots and internet providers. The attacks have disrupted power, transport and daily life as winter approaches.

On Thursday, at least 33 people were killed in a Russian attack on two buses in Kramatorsk in Ukraine’s Donbas region.

Kuleba explained why he believed Moscow has now sharply escalated its airstrikes: “The bombing of cities is a direct consequence of Russia’s failure to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield.” He continued: “The main target of Russian drones and missiles is the Ukrainians’ will to resist — but also the will of Ukraine’s friends abroad to keep supporting it.”

He added:“They don’t just want to turn out the lights in Ukraine. They want to paralyze the country.”

Kuleba described the worst-case scenario in Ukraine as “the collapse of the systems that make life in a big city possible,” such as electricity, water and drainage services.

Could Russia succeed? “I believe Ukraine is too large, too mobile and too adaptable. That’s why I think we’ll get through this winter,” said Kuleba.

“The price will be much higher than last year’s.”

The Axel Springer Global Reporters Network harnesses the resources of the company’s newsrooms to publish ambitious scoops, investigations, interviews, opinion pieces and analysis. It allows journalists — including those from POLITICO, Business Insider, WELT, BILD, Onet, The Telegraph, and Fakt — to collaborate on major stories for an international audience of hundreds of millions across platforms: online, print, TV and audio. 

Fast jede Nacht überzieht Russland die Ukraine mit Drohnen- und Raketenangriffen, um die Zivilbevölkerung zu zermürben. Doch abseits des Terrors aus der Luft kommt Moskau militärisch kaum voran. Die wahre Strategie des Kremls zielt längst auf ein anderes Schlachtfeld: die politische Erschöpfung Europas und der USA.

Im Gespräch mit POLITICO-Reporterin Rixa Fürsen teilt Nico Lange, Direktor des Instituts für Risikoanalysen und Internationale Sicherheit (IRIS), seine aktuellen Eindrücke aus dem Kriegsgebiet. Er analysiert, warum Putin trotz militärischer Stagnation auf einen politischen Sieg hofft und wie die deutsche Furcht vor Eskalation diesen Plan unfreiwillig begünstigt.

Die Folge offenbart die konkreten Konsequenzen westlicher Zögerlichkeit – von verweigerten Waffensystemen bis zum passiven Umgang mit der russischen Schattenflotte in der Ostsee. Ein ungeschönter Blick auf die strategischen Fehler der Bundesregierung und die reale Gefahr, dass mangelnde Entschlossenheit den Krieg am Ende für ganz Europa gefährlicher macht.

Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Rixa Fürsen, Maximilian Stascheit und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig.

Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.

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Brussels officials are finalizing plans to tighten visa rules for hundreds of thousands of Russians who visit EU countries as tourists each year, in a move designed to strengthen the bloc’s defenses against hybrid attacks. 

EU officials told POLITICO the European Commission is planning to put forward proposals in the new year, after a group of countries — including Poland, Sweden and Estonia — pushed for tougher visa rules for Russians, including former fighters who served on the battlefields in Ukraine.

Last year, some 478,000 Schengen area tourist visas were issued to Russian citizens, many of which were multiple-entry visas, which enable holders to come and go repeatedly without needing to apply for documentation each time. 

That system is a security threat to Europe at a moment of heightened concern over Moscow-sponsored acts of sabotage, arson and other forms of hybrid warfare, Sweden’s Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer told POLITICO. 

“It’s obvious I think for everyone that we have vulnerabilities in our system that can be used by our enemies,” Strömmer said in an interview.

“As far as I understand things, the Commission is preparing a proposal that, according to what I have heard, should be launched in January next year. From a Swedish point of view, we would love to see it even earlier.” 

Strömmer welcomed the “progress” and “growing support” for a tougher visa regime.  

Other countries are planning to push the issue during Monday’s Foreign Affairs Council meeting — and also propose more restrictions on Russian diplomats in the EU. 

Estonia has proposed an outright ban on allowing ex-soldiers from Russia’s armed forces access to the EU. There are around 650,000 of these former combatants, according to Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, which would be banned “person by person.”  But a tighter EU-wide approach is vital for the bloc’s security, he told POLITICO. 

“I think a large number of these ex-combatants will come, supported by the Russian secret services, to Europe,” Tsahkna said. “And they will take over our organized crime and they will be heavily weaponized and supported by Russia to commit terror attacks or attacks against our societies. So this is very serious.” 

After an initial fall in the number of Russian nationals receiving travel visas to the EU, “the numbers are not going down anymore,” Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner told POLITICO. “We urge the member states there to do a better job and to give less visas … to Russian citizens,” he said. “Work is progressing.”

Brunner said a Commission proposal to restrict visas “early next year makes sense” alongside new visa rules. “You never know who these tourists actually are,” he said. “So that’s why we urge the member states to decrease the number.”

In June, a group of ministers from nine EU countries plus Iceland and Norway wrote to the Commission calling for “a more uniform and coordinated approach” to Russian visas across all member states.

“A restrictive visa policy towards Russian citizens is essential to safeguard the security and integrity of the Schengen area,” they said. “A divided approach risks undermining — and even counteracting — the pressure we seek to uphold against the Russian Federation.”