We are now one year away from the latest possible date — Aug. 22, 2027 — that Spain can hold a general election.

For embattled Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, it looks like it’s going to be a bruising ride to get that far. He insists he will seek reelection, brushing aside the predictions that he is doomed by pointing to his well-established knack for defying political gravity.

But this time, the odds are especially stacked against him and his fragile minority government, which has never appeared so isolated.

The challenges that lie ahead are so daunting that Sánchez could well chuck the schedule and call for an early vote.

Here’s why he’s up against it.

Rough rentrée

Summers have historically been kind to Sánchez.

In the past, the seasonal break helped reduce the heat generated by crises like the June 2025 arrest of high-ranking Socialist Party official Santos Cerdán for allegedly awarding public works contracts in exchange for kickbacks. The prime minister was no doubt hoping a similar scenario would play out following this spring’s high-profile indictment of his ally, former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, on money-laundering charges, and after a major raid on his party’s headquarters as part of a separate criminal investigation.

But just days before he was due to head off on a beach break on the island of Lanzarote, Sánchez’s summer was upended by a surge of 72,000 migrants into Ceuta, a Spanish exclave in northern Africa. Even though the prime minister did eventually resume his scheduled vacation, the Ceuta crisis has continued to dominate the news. Thousands of unauthorized migrants remain in the city, with local authorities complaining Madrid isn’t doing enough to address overwhelmed hospitals and other public services.

The government is bound to face tough grillings over security failures, whether intelligence warnings went unheeded and whether something went badly wrong in relations with Morocco. The Ceuta debacle also left Sánchez looking painfully isolated on the EU stage, with 22 leaders writing a letter suggesting his liberal migration policies could have helped attract the influx.

Nearly a third of Sánchez’s ministers have been summoned to testify at extraordinary hearings in the Spanish parliament next week, and the prime minister himself is due to face tough questions when plenary sessions resume in September.

So much for a fresh start.

Budget bloodbath

The fall promises no relief for Spain’s prime minister, who faces defeat in a battle over the national cashflow.

The minority government has been unable to pass a single budget bill during this legislative term, and has been operating on the spending plan approved by Sánchez’s previous government in December 2022. The Socialist leader has vowed to submit a draft budget for 2027 this fall, but it is almost certain to be rejected by lawmakers.

A major obstacle is the Catalan separatist Together for Catalonia group, whose support is key to getting any legislation passed. The party voted down the deficit framework for the draft budget this summer, with its spokesperson, Josep Rius, characterizing the long-shot legislation as “yet another Sánchez frivolity.”

The separatists were instrumental in getting Sánchez a third stint as prime minister in 2023, but relations have since soured, with the party now accusing the government of reneging on its commitments to Catalonia, and refusing to back budget plans it considers to be Madrid-centric.

But the prime minister is determined to move forward, raising questions about his motivation to present a doomed budget bill.

“There’s growing speculation that Sánchez may want to call voters to the polls as early as March, and the budget’s failure would provide him with an excuse to do so” said Pablo Simón, a political scientist at Madrid’s Carlos III University, who pointed out that Spain is due to hold local and key regional elections in May 2027.

Sánchez’s personal unpopularity has been cited as a key factor in Socialist Party losses in previous local and regional races. Holding national elections earlier in the year could remove the prime minister from the equation when the May vote is held, helping center-left candidates running in key cities and enabling the socialists retain control of regional governments in Castilla-La Mancha, Asturias and Navarre.

“There’s no sense in stretching this term to its limits if you’re not only going to lose, but drag others down with you,” Simón said.

(More) legal woes ahead

Sánchez’s tumultuous relationship with Spain’s judiciary is also likely to grow even more strained over the next year.

In the coming months the prime minister’s wife, Begoña Gómez, could stand trial on charges of influence-peddling and embezzlement. She denies all wrongdoing, and the prime minister has consistently argued that his wife is the victim of so-called “lawfare” targeting his friends and family.

Gómez’s trial follows on this summer’s conviction of the prime minister’s brother on administrative misconduct charges, in connection to the rigged allocation of a public job — a ruling Sánchez called “unjust.”

Beyond the cases involving his immediate family, the prime minister faces potentially damaging judicial probes into alleged bid-rigging and kickbacks involving key allies — as well as an explosive investigation into suspected illegal financing of his Socialist Party.

Crucial parliamentary allies such as Gabriel Rufián of the Republican Left of Catalonia have warned that illegal financing is a “red line.” Hard evidence could force Spain’s current prime minister to suffer the same fate as his conservative predecessor, Mariano Rajoy, whom Sánchez ousted from power after his People’s Party was proven to have engaged in the same crime.

Left-wing logjam

Spain’s fragmented politics make majority governments increasingly unlikely: Power goes to whoever can secure enough parliamentary support to be declared prime minister.

For now, the polling suggests the center-right People’s Party and the far-right Vox party are on course to control a majority of seats in the parliament in 2027. The two parties currently govern in coalition in four Spanish regions, and PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo in June explicitly endorsed a partnership at the national level.

Sánchez faces tougher odds in building an alliance strong enough to keep him in power. In 2023, he formed a coalition with the Sumar group — an amalgam of far-left parties — and won the backing of key regionalist and separatist parties.

But this time around, the numbers don’t add up. Sumar has effectively collapsed amid internal infighting, and its unifying leader, Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz, has ruled out standing as its candidate at the next election. Polls indicate the far left will suffer heavy losses at the national level, leaving Sánchez with fewer viable paths to a parliamentary majority.

No relief abroad

There are also signs that Sánchez will no longer be able to boost his fortunes at home through his performances on the global stage.

Engagement in international affairs — ranging from his condemnation of Israel’s military operations in Gaza, to his ongoing feud with U.S. President Donald Trump — has previously bolstered his standing in Spain.

But political scientist Simón said that the harsh criticism the prime minister from fellow EU leaders for his handling of the Ceuta crisis reveals he is increasingly considered to be a figure on his way out.

“As one of the few social democrats still governing in Europe, his positions are out of step with the conservative consensus, and they aren’t taken seriously because he is now seen as a lame duck who is going to lose the next elections,” said Simón.

“That leaves him with little capacity to make a difference because he isn’t seen as representing Spain’s position at this point,” he added. “Everyone accepts someone else will be in charge next year, and likely have a very different perspective.”

Sánchez’s broader international vulnerabilities will be on display in November, when Madrid hosts a summit of Ibero-American heads of government that will underscore the region’s rightward shift. Roughly half the leaders attending are from the right, and include figures like Argentina’s populist president, Javier Milei, with whom the prime minister has a prickly relationship.

“The summit highlights a global political realignment,” said Simón. “One that Spain narrowly avoided in 2023, but seems increasingly inevitable next year.”

KYIV — Ukraine’s popular former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has emerged as a new rival to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — but his call for an election is facing immediate blowback.

In a video address on Tuesday night, he zeroed in on topics he knew would strike a public chord in one of the most direct internal challenges to Zelenskyy since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He complained that corruption was undermining the war effort and protested about centralized and opaque decision-making in the Zelenskyy administration — for which he worked until only last month.

However, Fedorov’s unexpected appeal for the nation to go to the ballot box sparked immediate retorts across the political spectrum. Critics insisted such an election would be banned by Ukraine’s martial law, would be impossible to organize in wartime, would play into Russia’s hands and would sow division when national unity remains vital.

Zelenskyy still commands broad support as a war leader, and his allies pointed out that, regardless of public frustration, there are limits to how much he can reveal about the inner workings of the state when national survival is at stake.

Fedorov’s emergence as a rival to Zelenskyy was accelerated by his shock dismissal as defense minister last month. The 35-year-old built up a strong following for spearheading Ukraine’s success in using new technologies — from cyberattacks to drones — to damage Russia.

His ejection from office sparked immediate protests, with thousands of people taking to the streets, calling for his reinstatement or for Zelenskyy to properly explain the decision to fire him.

In his address on Tuesday night, Fedorov delivered a thinly veiled criticism of Zelenskyy’s management style, referring to his peremptory approach to hiring and firing.

“People cannot endlessly live in a state where they do not understand why certain decisions are made. Why some reforms move forward while others are blocked. Why decisions needed on the frontlines today spend months circulating through government offices,” Fedorov said.

“It is dangerous when society develops the feeling that the main criterion for an appointment is not professionalism, results, or the ability to transform the country, but personal loyalty to the system,” added the former minister, who had himself been viewed as a Zelenskyy loyalist for seven years.

Election backlash

A top official in Zelenskyy’s office, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about Fedorov’s move, had little time for the criticism that the president should explain his actions publicly.

“The president cannot just explain his hiring choices to the public during war, as those are matters of national security. And it’s his right to decide whom to appoint as his defense minister and whom to fire,” they said.

The official was also scathing about the possibility of holding an election in the face of devastating Russian attacks: “Let’s wait out another massive Russian ballistic attack and then go vote,” the person added, sarcastically.

Olga Aivazovska, head of Ukraine’s election watchdog OPORA, also stressed the practical obstacles to an election, insisting that there were “hundreds of scenarios and actions” that the Russians could use to undermine the electoral process.

Roman Lozynskyi, a parliamentarian from the opposition liberal Holos party and deputy head of the state management committee, feared the call for elections could prove disastrously divisive.

“There is zero positive for the country. Don’t be happy that you will have candidates in the post-war elections. You still have to live to see them,” he said. “People understand that elections during the war are in the enemy’s hands. That it will be a war of all against all.”

Even one of the leaders of the protest movement, war veteran Dmytro Koziatysnkyi, said he didn’t want to see elections during wartime. “I am also very afraid of the disunity of society during the electoral process and how this may affect the course of the war,” he said.

Far from bolstering Fedorov’s political future, the call for an election could even count against him.

Economist Timothy Ash, who frequently writes on Ukraine, suggested the ex-minister had made “an extraordinary political error of judgement which some would likely use against him if he ever pitches in to run as president in the future.”

Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst based in Kyiv, conceded Zelenskyy had become accustomed to “acting like in business,” defined by “single-man leadership” and “quick decisions,” but argued that the president was hardly acting out of step with any other major international leader.

“When his critics say he should appoint professionals instead of loyalists, they sound right but naive at the same time. Even in the West, unless we are talking about coalition governments, such an approach does not work. Any serious politician … and especially in a country like ours, will appoint trusted loyalists,” Fesenko added.

Fesenko also defended Zelenskyy’s record in appointing senior officials. He noted that Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi, new commander-in-chief, Maj. Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi, as well as new Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara, all had positive reputations, even among Zelenskyy’s top critics in parliament.

Indeed, Khmara was confirmed in his new role to succeed Fedorov by a parliamentary vote on Wednesday, by 312 lawmakers out of 392.

‘People want change’

Fedorov is certainly popular. A poll from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology said earlier this month that 63 percent of people saw him as trustworthy — a score that put him second only to former military supremo Valeryi Zaluzhnyi, who is now ambassador to the U.K.

But none of that put Zelenskyy, who scored a robust 56 percent, out of the picture.

In line with Fedorov’s attack on a lack of transparency in the centralized state, another survey found dwindling sympathy for Zelenskyy using his powers to intervene over other state authorities. The poll found that 79 percent of people in 2022 — the year of Russia’s full-scale invasion — thought the president could override the constitution’s division of powers, but that had slipped to 52 percent in May 2026.

“People are placing all responsibility for the course of the war on the president. Because of this, the president feels the need to make all these decisions independently, which is against Ukraine’s constitution and legislative procedures. As a result, one person, the president, has a huge number of completely different tasks, incentives, requirements,” said Yurii Hudymenko, head of the Public Anti-Corruption Council at Ukraine’s defense ministry.

Corruption is also a hot topic, as Fedorov identified. Last year, Zelenskyy signed a law to strip Ukraine’s national anti-corruption watchdogs of their procedural independence, only to then backtrack on that decision when it faced criticism from the EU and protests at home.

Later, his former business partner and allies were implicated in a $100 million corruption scheme in the state nuclear energy sector — a scandal that forced Zelenskyy to fire his faithful No. 2, Andriy Yermak. Yermak was charged with corruption and is standing trial.

Several of Zelenskyy’s top allies are also under investigation for corruption, including former Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Olga Stefanishyna, while watchdogs complain they still face tremendous pressure and surveillance when investigating top officials.

On Wednesday, Zelenskyy fired Iryna Mudra as deputy head of his office, hours after anti-corruption watchdogs searched her workplace as part of a sweeping probe into an alleged criminal organization.

Yaroslav Zheleznyak, MP from opposition party Holos, and a prominent Zelenskyy critic, said the cumulative weight of these problems would ultimately count against the president.

He predicted Zelenskyy would suffer the fate of British wartime leader Winston Churchill and lose an election during the tail end of the war.

“No matter the competitors, Zaluzhnyi, [Head of the Presidential Office Kyrylo] Budanov, Fedorov or someone else, I think we will get the situation like in 2019, when anyone but the incumbent will win in the second round. In this case, this is very much a Churchill story, when a guy who won the war got voted out,” Zheleznyak said.

“People want change,” he added.

Oleksandr Saienko, expert at the Center for Political and Legal Reforms, said it was possible to avert a political crisis even without elections, but that would mean shifting some decision-making back to parliament and other state authorities.

“The subjectivity of the parliament must be restored both in terms of the legislative process and parliamentary control. The government must become the main center for the formation of state policy,” he said. “The pause on reform of the judicial system and law enforcement agencies, public administration, must be lifted and people should get a real sense of justice and protection.”

KYIV — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired Iryna Mudra as deputy head of his office Wednesday, hours after anti-corruption watchdogs searched her workplace as part of a sweeping probe into an alleged criminal organization.

“Iryna Romanivna Mudra is hereby dismissed from the post of Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said in a decree published Wednesday. The one-line order gave no reason for her removal.

The firing adds to a turbulent stretch for Zelenskyy. Former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov called Tuesday for wartime elections and denounced corruption and a systemic governance crisis, weeks after his ouster triggered prolonged street protests.

Earlier Wednesday, Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau, or NABU, announced a new operation targeting an alleged criminal organization involving current and former lawmakers and senior officials in Zelenskyy’s office. The bureau said it was carrying out searches with the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office, or SAP.

The investigation, dubbed Operation Forrest Gump, alleges the group laundered around 150 million Ukrainian hryvnia, equivalent to roughly $3 million, through state-owned Sense Bank to fund bail for former Energy Minister German Galushchenko, a key figure in last year’s $100 million Midas corruption scandal.

Writing on Facebook, Mudra said: “I will defend my name in a legal manner – calmly and consistently.”

NABU did not name Mudra directly in its video statement, referring only to a deputy head of the president’s administration, but searched her office.

Ukraine’s corruption watchdog released recordings in which a woman identified in the video only as a deputy head of the president’s office can be heard saying: “Fighting corruption is a wrong approach … Corruption has to be systemized and controlled.” NABU did not identify the woman by name.

This article has been updated with a comment from Iryna Mudra.