Decades ago, the world treated global trade as a neutral ground that helped energy markets in becoming more integrated, as we still see them today. The standard view in policy circles was that trade made countries more secure and stable. Governments therefore now use tariffs and export controls as a chokepoint of power. Today interdependence between countries became a double-edged sword. Europe, for instance, faced this back in 2022, when the Russian gas that it long treated as a reliable commodity became a prominent tool of pressure overnight.

Despite the shifts towards digital economies and the massive investments that countries have been pouring in it, a major share of world trade still goes through narrow water ways. The Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal, bab el-Mandeb Strait and many more corridors could lead to world trade disruption if partly closed. In 2023 attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea led to big containers switching their usual route through the Suez Canal and going around Africa instead. It resulted in higher insurances, increased fuel consumption and longer delivery times. At the same time, extreme drought forced the Panama Canal to cut daily Transits. Two of the worlds key sea shortcuts were constrained at once. Securing energy and trade flows in geo-economic conflicts is no longer only about protecting ships and pipelines; it is also about building systems flexible enough to absorb shocks that are now certain to come. The Hormuz crisis of 2026 made that lesson costly, and the states that act on it now will set the terms of the next era of global trade.

Despite the shifts towards digital economies and the massive investments that countries have been pouring in it, a major share of world trade still goes through narrow water ways.

Two years later, on the 28th of February 2026 as the US-Israel-Iran war started, The Iran Revolutionary Guard shut the Strait of Hormuz to control the oil that was being exported from the Gulf Cooperation Council. Within two weeks, the International Energy Agency ‘IEA’ reported that the exports through the Strait of Hormuz had fallen to a tenth of normal flows. Asian importers took the worst hit, as they highly depend on the Gulf’s crude. The damage, however, showed up in prices other than oil; for instance, urea fertilizers also flow through the strait, and its supply disruption led to higher food prices. Gulf countries demonstrated their resilience by finding alternatives to exporting away from the strait of Hormuz. The UAE, for example, Created the Habshan-Fujeirah line, which started construction in 2008 and was finished in 2012, to secure energy trade even if faced by geographical obstacles. Securing energy and trade flows is a significant topic to be discussed at the TRENDS Annual Forum on October 12, 2026, under the theme “Sustainable Security: The Post-War Future of the Middle East”.

The Middle East plays a crucial role in the global economy. It’s often faced with exposure to regional conflict, but it can secure trade through several approaches.

The Middle East plays a crucial role in the global economy. It’s often faced with exposure to regional conflict, but it can secure trade through several approaches. First, spreading the risk by creating more routes through land. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, currently in the developments phase, is one initiative that seeks to connect several countries through one line of trade. The second approach is “Friend-shoring”, which protects sensitive supply chains by moving them to ally countries. This can be high in cost but works most efficiently when a country is faced by war. This approach demonstrates the benefits of economic partnerships and investing in ports in different geographies to secure supply chains especially given that more the 80 percent of world trade moves by sea. The third option is stockpiling. In March of 2026 the IEA agreed to release 400 million barrels of emergency reserves. Those reserves will not end the whole crises but will provide time for diplomacy to act.

These matters influence not just local residents but also have global repercussions, affecting everyday experiences worldwide through shifting costs for fuel, farming, and food supplies.

Trends Global, operating as part of TRENDS Group, is organizing its Annual Forum to examine critical issues and inquiries impacting the security of the Middle East. These matters influence not just local residents but also have global repercussions, affecting everyday experiences worldwide through shifting costs for fuel, farming, and food supplies. By gathering a diverse group of political figures, scholars, and leaders from the corporate and defense sectors, the event intends to explore the ongoing transformation of the territory. Establishing lasting stability in the post-conflict Middle East requires a departure from past patterns, ensuring that future security is not merely a reaction to a continuous cycle of emergencies.

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Bibliography

1. European Commission. (2022). REPowerEU: Affordable, secure and sustainable energy for Europe. https://commission.europa.eu/topics/energy/repowereu_en 
2. Farrell, H., & Newman, A. L. (2019). Weaponized interdependence: How global economic networks shape state coercion. International Security, 44(1), 42–79. https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/44/1/42/12237/Weaponized-Interdependence-How-Global-Economic 
3. Gulf producers race to bypass Hormuz and bab el-mandeb – oil & gas middle east. Accessed September 27, 2026. https://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/news/gulf-producers-race-to-bypass-hormuz-and-bab-el-mandeb
4. International Energy Agency. (2026, March 11). IEA member countries to carry out largest ever oil stock release amid market disruptions from Middle East conflict. https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict 
5. International Monetary Fund. (2024, March 7). Red Sea attacks disrupt global trade. https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/03/07/red-sea-attacks-disrupt-global-trade

Recently I started reaching for my bottle of Vermouth Blanc more and more. I had opened it to make an El Presidente cocktail, but during an interview on my IG Live channel with Pierre-Olivier Rousseaux, owner of Dolin distillery in France, he remarked that their Chambéryzette apéritif, made in the French alps, could be made at home, anywhere, with fresh strawberries and white vermouth. So I took the plunge and made a batch myself.

It’s very easy to make. Just slice or quarter a few fresh strawberries and within 24 hours, you can be enjoying your very own batch of strawberry apéritif!

White vermouth (vermouth blanc) is different than dry vermouth. For one thing, the botanicals used are different. Dry vermouth leans into its bitterness with wormwood, quinine, or other flavorings that keep it decidedly dry. White vermouth celebrates its sparkling-clear color with floral aromas, which can include elderflowers and citrus. While you could make this with dry vermouth, I do prefer it with the white vermouth, which in Italy is referred to as vermouth bianco.

When I took a sip of the strawberry-infused vermouth the next day, it seemed like it’d be a perfect candidate for a summery Spritz. So I mixed it with a splash of tonic water, and found it was just perfect as-is, with a handful of ice and some berries and maybe a slice of citrus in it. If you want to go full-on summer, you could replace the citrus with a slice of peach or nectarine, or maybe a few other types of berries.

Tonic water has become more of a topic of conversation lately. Brands like Schweppes are popular and readily available (and you can make your own tonic water, too), but some like to fine-tune their cocktails and apéritifs with a premium brand of tonic water. Fever-Tree, Q, and Fentimen’s are popular, but I kept mine French using Archibald, which uses gentian in place of quinine, to keep it resolutely Made in France. (Quinine doesn’t grow in France, but gentian does.) As far as I know, it’s not available outside of the country but feel free to find your own favorite where you live, and use that.