BRUSSELS — NATO countries are bracing for a worst-case scenario in the U.S. midterm elections Tuesday.

European allies fear a Republican loss could spur President Donald Trump to dramatically step up his attacks on the alliance, according to five NATO diplomats, all of whom were granted anonymity to speak freely on the sensitive issue.

Their worry is that if he is restrained by Congress on domestic policy, Trump, as commander-in-chief of the U.S. military, may seek to cement his legacy on foreign affairs, where he has a freer hand. That could mean pulling thousands more troops out of Europe, three of the diplomats said.

“Usually what happens to lame duck presidents is a mix of venting frustrations and adventurism in foreign policy,” said one senior European defense official. And attacking NATO “seems to be a consistent part of [the] Trump worldview.”

White House Assistant Press Secretary Olivia Wales told POLITICO that “President Trump has done more for NATO than anyone else,” citing his successes in securing agreements by allies to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, bolster U.S. military presence in Greenland, and efforts to end Russia’s all-out war in Ukraine.

Yet he “remains firm that our NATO allies should have been there for the United States” over the war in Iran, she said, adding: “The President will never settle for the West’s managed decline and will continue to unapologetically advance our interests at home and abroad.”

Democrats are widely expected to win the House of Representatives and potentially flip the Senate, while Trump’s personal approval ratings have fallen to his lowest on record.

The worries underscore growing transatlantic tensions after a U.S. cutoff of Starlink satellite services for Ukraine and a fresh rapprochement between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin weeks before the midterms. Further attacks would deal a fresh blow to NATO, just as Russia steps up its sabotage campaign and so-called hybrid war across Europe.

“He could be very pissed off,” said one of the NATO diplomats. If so, “he’ll be very harsh.”

Forces, money and Ukraine

At the heart of the concerns is an upcoming review of U.S. forces in Europe, expected by December. If Trump is blocked from legislating domestically, he may seek to significantly increase the scope of that pullback to rally his MAGA base, three of the diplomats said. 

The president could also decide to tie continued American presence on the continent to Europe accepting a U.S.-backed peace deal in Ukraine, said Oana Lungescu, a former NATO official and distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank.

“There is a risk that all these things — the U.S. force posture review, Ukraine, European security order … somehow are treated as part of a much bigger deal with Putin,” she said, “creating a very dangerous situation for security in Europe.”

Trump could also move to cut U.S. contributions to the alliance’s common funding, limit the NATO-backed PURL arms-buying scheme for Ukraine, as well as deepen ties still further with Russia, the diplomats said.

A major electoral defeat for the Republicans could also spell big changes at the Pentagon, which would have knock-on effects for any plans currently being hatched in the building.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has become a deeply unpopular figure in Congress, given his refusal to provide regular briefings about budgets and operations to lawmakers, especially Democrats.

That unpopularity has led to speculation that Hegseth could be out after an electoral blowout for Trump, partially because a Democrat-led Congress would slap Hegseth with probes into his firing of dozens of generals and admirals with no cause, and the faltering war with Iran. Those hearings and investigations would hamstring Hegseth and his team, and could prove embarrassing for the administration.

If Hegseth does move on, there would be a transition period in the Pentagon which could push any decisions about moving U.S. troops out of Europe back by weeks or months.

In theory, a Democrat majority in the House and Senate would restrain Trump’s maneuverability even on foreign and defense issues, even if U.S. law currently imposes a minimum limit of 76,000 on troop presence in Europe. 

But “it is doubtful that at least the troop floors would stand up to legal scrutiny and in any case Trump has been very willing to ignore the courts,” said Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow at the Defense Priorities think tank. “The Trump administration has regularly ignored funding guidance from Congress, spending money on activities the legislative branch has not authorized.”

If Trump decides to impose a more sprawling drawdown, Europe will have “the most trouble” replacing assets including electronic warfare capabilities, air defense systems, intelligence and reconnaissance support, aerial refueling, and some types of logistics, she said.

Other allies are more skeptical Trump would hammer NATO. “We have had speculations all the time about Trump … coming out of the NATO; this has not happened so far,” Montenegrin Defense Minister Dragan Krapović told POLITICO. “Congress is the one making the decision, the final decision about less troops in Europe.”

But “to make assumptions with a high probability of success needs an object of study that makes rational decisions,” said a sixth NATO diplomat. “I don’t think we are there with the current POTUS.”

NATO and the U.S. Department of Defense did not respond to requests for comment by POLITICO.

Quebec’s new separatist government accused Ottawa on Tuesday of barring the province from this week’s EU-Canada summit in Montreal and warned it would have the last word on any deals struck there that concern its powers.

The dispute erupted Tuesday morning when Quebec Justice Minister Marie-Claude Sarrazin said in a statement that Ottawa had refused Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s request to address the summit, which opens Thursday.

St-Pierre Plamondon said in a post on X that the decision revealed a “serious lack of respect,” adding that Ottawa would rather he “serve shrimp cocktail” at a function rather than address one.

Ottawa also turned down a September request from the previous Quebec government to host a reception on the sidelines of the summit, Sarrazin noted.

Prime Minister Mark Carney hit back, saying St-Pierre Plamondon had himself turned down an invitation to the Thursday night summit dinner. “It’s his decision to leave an empty chair again,” Carney told reporters in French.

The tiff threatens to overshadow an international gathering that Carney, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa have billed as a step change in mutual relations, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs and scorn for the postwar Western consensus.

Early drafts of the joint declaration include a digital trade deal and a pact that lets the European Investment Bank finance Canadian critical minerals projects. Many of those deliverables fall under provincial jurisdiction, such as natural resources.

“‘When you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu,’ Prime Minister Carney told us,” Sarrazin said in her statement. “The federal government has chosen to prevent Quebec from having a say on its own territory.”

Whatever agreements are signed at the summit, “Quebec is sovereign in its fields of jurisdiction internationally, so it will have the last word,” Sarrazin warned.

Her statement evoked the 1965 Gérin-Lajoie doctrine, a principle of Quebec’s international policy that holds it can conduct its own foreign relations in areas the Canadian Constitution assigns to the provinces. It also noted that Quebec had a seat at the table during negotiations on CETA, the EU-Canada trade deal signed in 2015, attending more than 100 meetings.

Yves-François Blanchet, leader of the separatist Bloc Québécois in the federal parliament, also said he had been refused a request to attend. “You’re invited to come, but above all, keep quiet. Don’t speak,” he told reporters on Parliament Hill.

The plot thickens

On Tuesday midmorning Ottawa time, Trump congratulated St-Pierre Plamondon on his election victory — three weeks after the actual Oct. 5 ballot — sharing an article headlined “Separatists win Quebec provincial election in blow to Mark Carney.”

Trump and Carney have been at odds since the dramatic implosion of mutual trade talks in late August, with the U.S. president deploring the Canadian leader as “nasty.”

The Quebec premier, meanwhile, is all-in on sovereignty in a province where support for separating from Canada reached a three-decade low of 29% earlier this year.

Carney rejected St-Pierre Plamondon’s claims of exclusion, saying Quebec had been consulted on the summit. “We have had three consultations with the Quebec delegation already on the agreement with the European Union,” he said. Carney’s office told POLITICO on Tuesday that it had invited every premier to attend the Thursday dinner in Montreal.

St-Pierre Plamondon also skipped a federal meeting with Indigenous leaders and premiers on Monday, an absence Carney criticized.

Industry Minister Mélanie Joly said the premier was “welcome” in Montreal, but that the summit was a federal meeting, with geopolitics a federal area of responsibility. “With everything going on in the world, we just need to make sure we can reach an agreement with the European Union,” she said. “That’s what Quebecers want.”

Despite the public spat over the summit logistics, working-level officials described the relationship between the different levels of government as constructive.

Hélène Drainville, Quebec’s delegate general in Brussels, told POLITICO last Friday that federal and provincial officials have set up joint working groups to implement the summit’s outcomes.

Quebec is also in talks with the European Investment Bank and DG GROW, the Commission’s industry department, about the bank’s entry into Canada, she said.

“Right now, all the signals are green,” Drainville said. She underlined, however, that the province “has to be at the table” if Ottawa and Brussels strike deals in its areas of jurisdiction.

Mickey Djuric and Sue Allan contributed reporting from Ottawa.

SpaceX’s Starlink and Starshield satellite communications services have been restored in Ukraine, allowing the country’s forces to operate drones at high speed, Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara said on Saturday.

“The Ministry of Defense’s monitoring systems indicate that Starlink/Starshield speeds have been restored,” Khmara told reporters in WhatsApp messages. “We are recording speeds exceeding 400 km/h, and the connection is stable.”

Since last week, Kyiv had been reporting speed limits on Starshield, Starlink’s military-grade service, affecting Ukraine’s ability to use drones and carry out defensive strikes. The throttling came amid growing tensions between Washington and Kyiv, with Trump blaming President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the continuation of the war with Russia.

On Friday, Ukrainian officials told POLITICO that drones continued to lose signal at speeds above 160 km/h, despite U.S. President Donald Trump saying on Thursday that SpaceX CEO Elon Musk had “put it back.” British Prime Minister Andy Burnham raised the issue in a phone call with Trump on Friday.

“This outcome is of primary importance for the front line, our military personnel, the operation of drones, logistics, and communications,” Khmara said.

He added that the ministry of defense would continue to “monitor and track the performance of Starlink/Starshield.”

KYIV — Ukrainian interceptors still cannot use the internet at high speed to shoot down Russian attack drones or conduct mid-strike operations as of Friday morning, Ukrainian officials and a drone operator said, despite U.S. President Donald Trump saying SpaceX founder Elon Musk had lifted speed restrictions on his Starshield service.

“Morning tests show the speed limits of 140–160 km/h are still there, and the navigation isn’t working properly,” a Ukrainian government official told POLITICO on condition of anonymity.

“As of this morning, instances of connectivity loss at speeds of 161 km/h are still being observed. There is currently no confirmation that the restrictions have been lifted,” a defense ministry official told reporters on Friday.

Ukrainian drone units started testing speed limits from Thursday evening, shortly after Trump told reporters that Musk had restored Starlink. While some tests recorded speeds of up to 200 km/h over the Black Sea and noted an improvement, the drones still rapidly lost signal once flying above the 160 km/h speed limit.

“So, the key point is: We accelerate above 180 km/h, fly for a couple of minutes, the connection drops. It falls to 140–150 km/h and then is re-established — but the situation is better,” a drone pilot from Ukraine’s top drone unit known as Magyar’s Birds told POLITICO. “So it works better, but with constant connection interruptions,” the pilot, whose call sign is Leon, said.

The speed limit on Starshield, Starlink’s service designed for military purposes, stalled key operations and partially disabled crucial drone interceptors against Russian Shaheds attack drones.

Musk said that the U.S. government controlled Starshield, while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the administration could not direct SpaceX or Musk regarding restrictions or slowdowns of Starlink services in Ukraine as it is a private company.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy argued the Starlink restriction was a planned operation to specifically restrict Starshield’s operating speed over Ukraine. The Ukrainian government said that it was not told why that had happened for days. However, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that Trump had called Musk and asked him to lift restrictions.

“I don’t want to say. That’s a very interesting situation. My relationship with Elon is very good. I don’t want to comment on it, whether I called, or someone else called … The bottom line: he put it back,” Trump told reporters on Thursday evening.