Customs union, single market, rejoin, second referendum. It’s all feeling a little Ground Hog day in Westminster after Andy Burnham reopened the Europe question at Labour Party conference.
Hosts Sascha O’Sullivan and Pat Baker find out how the row over Europe will play out in the next few years, with Reform MP Danny Kruger and Labour MP Stella Creasy.
Sascha speaks to Cecilia Malmström, former EU Trade Commissioner during the Brexit negotiations, who says any new deal with the EU would need to be “Nigel Farage-proofed” in case Reform wound up in Downing Street.
UK-EU reporter Jon Stone explains what Burnham is hoping to gain from the EU summit next month, and whether Britain’s friends in Brussels care about Westminster looking again at Britain’s relationship with the trading bloc.
LONDON — The Liberal Democrats used to watch their rivals indulge in messy factional squabbles with glee. Now they are scrambling to project an image of unity.
Britain’s third-largest Westminster group could hold significant power after the next election if no party wins a majority of MPs and Prime Minister Andy Burnham is casting around for a deal.
But for now, the focus is on weathering an internal storm in the centrist outfit. MPs rallied around their leader Ed Davey this week at a marathon four-hour meeting — held days after one of his frontbenchers resigned in an ill-fated attempt to oust the party chief.
The botched coup comes as the Liberal Democrats try to answer a more existential question: what are they actually for and how do they make an impact in Britain’s fragmented political landscape?
POLITICO’s Poll of Polls shows the Lib Dems coasting along. After getting 12.2% in the 2024 general election — and bagging a record 72 members of parliament as a result — the party has slipped down, polling between 9% and 11% since Andy Burnham became prime minister.
POLITICO explains why Lib Dems are now openly discussing Davey’s future; how much danger he is in; and exactly how the man known for a cheery demeanor and eye-catching paddle-board stunts could be capsized.
1) Why is Davey’s future in the headlines?
The surprise resignation of the Lib Dems’ Treasury spokesperson Charlie Maynard a week ago triggered the latest round of soul-searching about the leader’s future — but the grumbling goes back a bit further.
Maynard’s resignation followed costly tax-cutting pledges from Davey at the party’s conference in September and came hot on the heels of sharp responses — including from 2024-intake Lib Dem MPs Tom Gordon and Vikki Slade — to the way Davey defended an existing guarantee on state pensions. Some MPs believe the party isn’t adequately representing younger voters by opposing changes to the so-called triple lock, now targeted for reform by Burnham.
The immediate threat looks to have receded. Maynard’s resignation has gone down badly among a host of colleagues.
One Lib Dem frontbencher — granted anonymity to speak about internal matters like others in this piece — said the “vast majority of us think it’s beyond ridiculous and are really angry.” A second frontbencher said it was “bang out of order” for colleagues to brief internal policy discussions to the press.
2) So he’s safe?
Not quite — fizzled plots like this have a habit of still bringing grumbling to the surface (just ask Theresa May)
There remains frustration among some MPs over Davey’s perceived failure to exploit a gap in British politics opened up by voters’ deep dislike of Keir Starmer’s Labour government after the 2024 general election.
YouGov’s Anthony Wells explains that the party was stagnant “during a period where the Starmer government came in, became extremely unpopular [and] lost a huge amount of support” that “didn’t go to them.”
He contrasted this with how the Lib Dems gained traction in the 2000s when the Labour government was in big trouble. The Lib Dems are normally good at grabbing “the low-hanging fruit of unpopular left-of-center governments.”
“They haven’t nailed their colors really firmly to any mast,” says Wells. “They have been something to all men — and it means they may have suffered in comparison to people like the Greens under [leader] Zack Polanski, who’ve been much clearer about what they stand for.”
Removing a Lib Dem leader remains reasonably easy — though a crunch meeting of the parliamentary party on Tuesday suggests there currently aren’t enough MPs to actually trigger a ballot of no confidence, let alone win one.
Eighteen MPs (25% of the parliamentary party) would need to push for a vote of no confidence to be held. An absolute majority — 36 MPs — would then have to vote no confidence in Davey for a leadership election to be triggered.
Davey could stand in that leadership election if he could secure nominations from 10% of Lib Dem MPs and 200 members from at least 20 different local parties.
Unlike in the Conservatives, where a leader cannot be challenged again for a year after they win a no-confidence vote, Davey would be given no such grace period if he survived — meaning another ballot could take place just months after he saw off a coup attempt.
3) What’s the view from Davey world?
The arguments in the leader’s favor appear to have won out — for now.
For one, he has a record of winning. Davey can point to having taken the party to its largest number of constituencies in its modern form by focusing on a fight-by-fight, seats-first strategy. The 2024 campaign prioritized targeted campaigning in specific areas, rather than seeking a higher national vote share that doesn’t translate to a high number of MPs.
Loyal allies have come out to bat for their embattled boss this week. Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper, seen as a possible future leadership contender, said there’s a “real sense that we need to come together as a group” to stop the Tories and Reform UK “from forming the most right-wing government in our history.”
Subtext: let’s not mess around and let our real enemies in.
A third frontbencher told POLITICO Davey doesn’t “just have the support of the parliamentary party — there clearly aren’t anything like enough MPs to trigger a vote of no confidence.” They said Davey changing his top team earlier this year by appointing James Holt as director of political strategy and Ruth Younger as chief of staff “just needs time to percolate.”
4) So can Davey just keep calm and carry on?
Maybe.
Wells believes the party doesn’t “necessarily need to do much” to hold its current crop of seats at the next election — and that a middle-of-the-road approach against flashier, potentially more divisive opponents — might actually work in its favor.
While “their brand may be less distinctive, it also means they’re more coalition-able,” Wells says. He points out that there’s already much less objection from Labour about working with the Lib Dems compared to the Greens, who Burnham this week threatened to can local power-sharing agreements with amid a row over anti-semitism.
“There is a strategic advantage to them in terms of not offending people, but there’s also a strategic weakness in not defining yourself very clearly,” he says.
LONDON — Andy Burnham offered his “rock-solid” support to Ukraine as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy prepares to visit the U.K. Wednesday.
The British prime minister urged international allies to strengthen sanctions on Russia and called on President Vladimir Putin to agree to an energy ceasefire ahead of Zelenskyy’s visit to Downing Street. It will be the first visit to a European capital by the Ukrainian president since Donald Trump temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian diesel last Friday.
In a statement issued by No. 10 ahead of the visit, Burnham said: “Our rock-solid support to Ukraine is vital for keeping us safe here in the UK and ensuring those on the frontlines have the equipment they need to push back Russia.
“My message to the Ukrainian people could not be clearer, we are with you for as long as it takes, and we will go further and faster in our support to back your courageous fight for peace in Europe. It is not just the right thing to do, but it’s the necessary thing to do. Russia’s aggression cannot be allowed to succeed on our continent.”
Downing Street said the U.K. prime minister has asked ministers to draw up proposals for further sanctions, military aid, and fiscal packages to support Ukraine in the coming weeks.
Britain will deliver £45 million of surface-to-air missiles and implement a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
Britain will also accelerate deliveries of more than 5,000 Lightweight Multirole Missiles to Ukraine over the next four years with £1.6 billion funding, Downing Street added.
Chancellor John Healey will use meetings at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Bangkok to urge other countries to impose an equivalent LNG ban, arguing it would “curtail the war chest funding Putin so desperately wants.”
European leaders are expected to use a European Council summit Thursday to back stronger sanctions on Moscow after Trump struck a deal with Russia to ease restrictions on its diesel exports.
LONDON — Nigel Farage on Tuesday defended his party’s proposals to allow the Royal Marines to use “lethal force” against irregular migrants crossing the English Channel.
The leader of the right-wing Reform UK party — who has announced plans to shut down Britain’s asylum system for five years if he takes office — doubled down on his Treasury spokesperson Robert Jenrick’s pledge Monday that if naval officers “need to use lethal force, then they’ll be able to do so” under Reform.
Farage’s political opponents leapt on Reform’s proposals following Jenrick’s comments. Labour Defence Minister Luke Pollard told Times Radio Tuesday morning the plan is “disgusting and illegal” and “abhorrent to British military values.”
“Our Royal Navy are not allowed, as all armed forces are, to accept an illegal order. We do not shoot unarmed civilians. We do not take military action against civilians,” he said.
Farage told LBC Jenrick’s remarks were being “utterly misconstrued” as “anybody wearing British military uniform who gets fired at has the right to respond.”
The Reform chief said there were shooting and stabbings in migrant camps every week. “We are dealing here with very, very serious international criminal organizations,” he argued.
Reform’s blueprint for stopping small boats — Operation Fortress — was published in August and says “lethal force would be available where lawful and necessary in self-defence or defence of others against an imminent threat to life.”
LONDON — Andy Burnham said Monday it would be a “dereliction of duty” for Britain not to seek closer ties with the EU.
In a House of Commons statement reopening Britain’s highly-charged Brexit debate, the prime minister said the vast majority of the public would back a closer relationship with the EU if it helps to control immigration and boost economic growth.
Announcing a long-anticipated U.K.-EU summit will take place on Nov. 20., he said: “Sticking with the status quo is not good enough for Britain. Worse, it would be a major dereliction of duty to turn away. We need to take a calm, clear-eyed, rational look at the world as it is today to consider what is best for our country.”
In subsequent interviews he said it’s possible a future Labour manifesto could include a pledge to hold an “in-out” referendum on rejoining the EU.
The U.K. prime minister addressed MPs after telling the Rest is Politics podcast in an interview aired over the weekend that it is “clear” Russia interfered in the 2016 Brexit referendum.
“I asked the question coming to Downing Street: ‘Was there interference in the 2016 referendum from Russia?’ And I’ve had the clear answer that yes, there was,” Burnham said.
But his spokesperson told reporters Monday: “We do believe the referendum result to be legitimate.”
Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage, one of the most high profile campaigners for Brexit in 2016, said Burnham’s Russian interference claim was “outrageous” and accused the prime minister of being a “liar.”
At a press conference in Kent, he acknowledged Brexit had led to more inconvenience for some businesses, like the haulage firm where he was giving the speech, but said: “When you have borders to protect your country, there is some level of inconvenience.”
Dan Bloom contributed reporting.
This story has been updated to include comments from Nigel Farage.
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