LONDON — Britain’s Liberal Democrats are holding fire against Andy Burnham — for now.

The centrist party has studiously avoided criticizing the new Labour prime minister during his first weeks in power, instead pushing the same “constructive opposition” approach followed during predecessor Keir Starmer’s early stint in Downing Street.

“I like what he’s doing,” says 2024-intake Lib Dem MP Martin Wrigley. “I like the way he’s going, focusing on things that matter.” The question is: how long can it last?

A person familiar with Lib Dem Leader Ed Davey’s thinking, granted anonymity because their job does not authorize them to speak publicly, says the party hopes Burnham removes the “performative hostility” from Westminster.

“That style of politics really suits the populist parties, both on the left and the right, and it isn’t the sort of politics that we as Liberal Democrats want to do,” they argued.

But while not rocking the boat has landed well with Lib Dem MPs, there is still a call for a distinctive identity for the party in a highly competitive political environment, with Labour enjoying a “Burnham bounce” in the opinion polls on the left, and Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch’s personal brand on the up.

Duty of care

Davey — whose party enjoyed its best-ever result at the 2024 election but remains only just in double digits in national polls — has already made one big play in the Burnham era: being helpful on reforming social care.

The creaking social care system in England is a policy challenge governments of all stripes have failed to meet — leaving families with drained finances and cash-strapped local authorities plugging the gaps.

The Lib Dem leader, who cares for his disabled son, attended a virtual cross-party meeting after Burnham, whose own father is in a care home with Alzheimer’s, called for an open conversation on a fix.

This proactive approach has so far landed well with Davey’s troops. “I don’t think we’re going to sink the process if we don’t get everything we want,” says Lib Dem Shadow Commons Leader Bobby Dean. “If we can get cross-party consensus on one element, then we should get on with that element straight away.” 

Indeed, Mike Storey, the Lib Dems’ co-deputy leader in the House of Lords, says the party will “cooperate fully on social care … and we’ll do it with no strings attached.” 

The person familiar with Davey’s thinking laid out the approach, saying “People are put off” by opposition parties that “decide to just immediately say ‘oh, they’re terrible. They’re breaking everything again’” when a new government arrives.

Tom Lubbock, co-founder of polling agency J.L. Partners, agrees a conciliatory approach makes sense for now as “you just look a bit mad if you just go in studs-up within the first couple of months.”

But there’s some angst about making sure the Lib Dems clearly separate themselves from Labour.

Party of the countryside 

It’s not the first time the Lib Dems have tried to play nice with a Labour prime minister.

But Davey’s party soon found ways to differentiate themselves from the increasingly unpopular Keir Starmer.

After Starmer’s government changed inheritance tax rules for farmers, the Lib Dems spied an opening — dubbing it the “family farm tax” and ramping up campaigning.

The party has an “extraordinary niche and an extraordinary opportunity” to pose as the “Countryside Alliance arm of the Labour Party,” argues Lubbock — in other words, a progressive rival to Labour that rural voters can still get behind.

Burnham’s focus on reviving urban areas may lend itself to this approach, with Lib Dem figures poised to exploit any perception “Avanti Andy” is shuttling between London and Manchester, another major city.

Adam Dance, who represents the rural constituency of Yeovil, warns Burnham “can’t be a prime minister just for Manchester and the biggest cities” and says “he needs to understand rural areas.” 

Northern MP Tom Gordon also challenges the prime minister’s claim to represent northern England, arguing this “does feel slightly performative.” He reckons voters “don’t hate him [Burnham] yet” as “he’s not had long enough to make any really unpopular decisions.”

Left vs. right blocs 

Much of the Lib Dems’ success under Davey has come from wooing disillusioned Conservatives, targeting Tory-held seats in the home counties — dubbed the “blue wall.”

But winning remaining Tory areas next time round could be harder if the Lib Dems appear too closely aligned with a Labour government. 

Lubbock argues the Lib Dems will do “much worse” if supporters of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK “get on the Conservative bandwagon” to help defeat Labour nationally. That would be a mirror of the way some Labour supporters tactically backed the Lib Dems in 2024 to oust the Tories.

Though the Tories are still stuck below 20 percent in most polls, there are signs of recovery. YouGov data last month put Badenoch’s net favorability score at the highest of any Conservative leader for more than five years. Her position is undeniably more stable than it was 12 months ago.

While Lib Dems are optimistic Badenoch’s moves to the right on net zero and human rights will push more One Nation, centrist Conservatives in their direction, their Tory rivals sound bullish.

Tory MP Gregory Stafford, who saw off a challenge by the Lib Dems to win Farnham and Bordon two years ago, doesn’t think there are more Tories left for the Lib Dems to poach.

“All I’m seeing is those people coming back, not the other way round,” says Stafford about voters who bid the Tories farewell in 2024. Despite his narrow win, he thinks some of the 6,000 Reform UK voters in his seat will return — thanks to Badenoch.

“They see demonstrably in Kemi a leader that both they like as a person, but also speaks their language and speaks to the policies that they’re concerned about,” he argues.

As such, the Lib Dems may settle for a stronger attack against the right.

“People just don’t feel listened to,” says the party’s Scotland spokesperson Susan Murray. “When they don’t feel listened to, they are open to populism.” She argues that both the Lib Dems and Labour are “not succeeding in getting that message [of hope and opportunities] across.” Dean adds, “There’s a massive demand out there for a liberal party to make a bold offer to the country and at the moment that space feels vacated.” 

It’s a perceived weakness Stafford, the Conservative MP, plans to leap on at the next election. “The real danger for the Liberal Democrats is that they are seen as a patsy party that might champion local issues locally, but actually have nothing to say distinctive on the national stage,” he argues.

Roz Savage, who entered the Commons for the Lib Dems in 2024, recognizes the outfit has a “PR challenge that people think of us as the nice party.” Instead, a “bigger story” is required about a future Lib Dem government, she says.

“When we talk to Lib Dem voters in focus groups, they don’t really have a clear vision for what the Lib Dem party should stand for,” says Merlin Strategy’s Head of Research, Julian Gallie. People often back them as a vote against other parties, the political analyst says.

MPs also want the Lib Dems to reach beyond their traditional strongholds and target historically Labour areas — including Newcastle and Hull. Both have Lib Dem-run city councils, but are the kind of areas in which Burnham will fancy he can improve Labour’s standing. Meral Hussein-Ece, the Lib Dems’ Lords equality spokesperson, says the party must also do more to understand “the diversity of this country, which I don’t think we’ve done very well so far.” 

Lib Dem conference in Brighton next month will give the party a chance to lay a marker for the expected general election in 2029. But MPs want more than set-piece events to present a distinctive vision. 

“We do have to do better at utilizing the likes of social media and capturing the attention all the time, not just when we get the spotlight shined on us,” argues Gordon, the Harrogate and Knaresborough MP.

The Lib Dems, he says, have to drive “conversation on our own terms, rather than always having to just respond.” 

LONDON — Nigel Farage’s victory in the Clacton by-election is emphatic — but it won’t let him off the hook.

Winning back his seaside House of Commons seat by an increased margin allows the Reform UK leader to claim victory in the “people vs the establishment” contest he triggered in response to intense scrutiny of his finances.

Farage won the backing of 22,239 constituents, or 63 percent of the vote. That’s 1,014 more votes in this by-election than at the U.K. general election two years ago, and a 17-point swing in his favor.

But second-placed this time was Count Binface, a comedian with a trash can on his head who secured — by many thousands — his highest ever vote count in a palpable protest against Farage. None of Britain’s mainstream parties took part in the contest, branding it a circus.

The Reform UK leader’s refusal to turn up at the count to hear the result Friday — a move that would have seen him pictured alongside a cast of comedy characters — underlined the struggle for him to get back on the front foot he is used to contesting politics from. 

More significantly, Farage’s triumph means that parliamentary investigations into his financial affairs will now resume. That could lead to another by-election — one in which serious rivals are far less likely to stand aside to allow Farage to face-off against a long list of no-hopers.

Labour MPs switched out their own leader in part because of Farage’s storming success at local elections in May, but the focus on this contest has also made it harder for Farage to land blows on Britain’s new Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

This week, Labour overtook Reform in POLITICO’s Poll of Polls after months on the back-foot for the governing party.

Snubbing the count

Clacton is Farage’s fiefdom. It was one of the most Brexit-voting constituencies in the country and was the place that first sent him to the Commons on his eighth time of trying.

But Binface, a proud proponent of the British tradition of satirical candidates contesting elections, had never won more than 308 votes in a parliamentary election before. Against Farage, he secured 9,455 votes. That means 28 percent plumped for the comedy candidate with a bin on his head.

Farage on Friday snubbed the leisure center count and the mild embarrassment of accepting victory alongside Binface that three prime ministers — Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and Andy Burnham — have endured before him. 

He told his own “Farage Fest” jamboree organized in secret away from the results venue that he’d been advised by Essex Police of an “organized campaign to disrupt and degrade the result.”

“I’m not scared of these people, far from it,” he told fans. “But I’m damned if I’m going to stand on a stage, having won a resounding victory, a ringing endorsement of all that I’ve tried to fight for, and you’ve tried to fight for, and be demeaned and humiliated by nobodies, and I will not sadly be attending the count.”

That meant, according to reports, Farage became the first winning candidate not to turn up for a result since jailed Irish Republican Army hunger striker Bobby Sands won Fermanagh and South Tyrone in 1981.

Instead, Farage railed against the media and the “establishment” in his own event fit with branded pint cups, a ferris wheel and yurts for overnight stays. It was yet another demonstration of his attempt to bend the norms that accompany mainstream politics to his will.

Essex Police assured a “proportionate and robust policing operation” was in place at the count — while it was made clear that Farage was not advised to avoid the event. He cancelled a scheduled speech in Clacton, too.

Farage had gambled that a strong victory would inhibit the chances of parliamentary watchdogs imposing a severe enough sentence to set up a recall, should he be found to have breached the rules. “The bigger the vote, the bigger the message. Let’s tell the establishment where to go,” Farage said as polls opened on Thursday.

In the event, the turnout — at 44 percent — was not astonishing. That it’s less than the general election may not be surprising, but it was lower than another high-profile by-election held in this seat a decade earlier.

In 2014 Douglas Carswell resigned as the Conservative MP for the area to run for Ukip, Farage’s Eurosceptic party that helped drive Brexit. 

Clacton returned Carswell in his new guise, making him the first MP elected under the Ukip banner. He won 60 percent of the vote, on a 51 percent turnout.

That day was described as a “mini-earthquake in British politics” — but Friday’s result is producing less stable ground for Reform. “Farage’s distraction by-election doesn’t clear his name – it just shows he likely has so much more to hide,” argued Labour Party Chair Bridget Phillipson Friday morning.

Probes continue

So now the uphill battle. The parliamentary standards commissioner will resume two investigations into Farage — one centering on a £5 million donation from a crypto-entrepreneur, the other into support provided by a convicted fraudster.

The MP denies wrongdoing in both instances, arguing he didn’t need to declare the donations because they were given in a personal capacity before he was elected. 

But if there’s a finding of a serious rule breach then the Commons could vote to suspend Farage and trigger a recall petition.

The signatures of just 10 percent of registered voters in Clacton would then be needed to expel Farage from parliament — and trigger another by-election in which he could stand. Farage has expressed hopes that there isn’t such an appetite in his constituency — but the support for Binface throws that into doubt.

Clacton’s electorate is 79,785 — the 9,455 votes that Binface secured represents around 12 percent of those eligible voters, a comfortable margin for recall to be successful. 

Tactical errors?

That is all potential peril for the future. Right now, the August by-election has even some supporters questioning whether this was a rare miscalculation from a veteran campaigner.

Farage has in recent years dominated the summer break when many MPs vacate the political playing field.

But broadcasting rules on election periods stymied this year’s effort. Media invites to the press conferences Farage did throw had to assure broadcasters he would not be mentioning Clacton. And every mention of Clacton meant presenters were obliged to read the full 34-candidate list — namedropping Nick the Incredible Flying Brick and Baron Von Thunderclap in the process. 

Reform has also been struggling to grapple with a squeeze on its right from Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain splinter party. Farage’s one-time Reform comrade touted the possibility of a pact to unite the right — but deeply held grievances on both sides mean the distraction has dragged on.

A row over one of Reform’s most senior officials, Zia Yusuf, calling a Conservative former defense secretary a “traitor to Britain” has also been generating unwanted headlines and exposing rifts inside Reform.

If that second by-election does emerge in the coming months then the Conservatives have already vowed to fight it. Farage, should he choose to stand again, would face a far tougher contest against the backdrop of parliament having ruled against him, and many voters in Clacton had been unimpressed by the “laughing stock” caused by the first election.

The Reform hardcore may be buoyed by Farage’s railing against the “establishment” — but what this saga does to his reputation with the wider electorate he needs to propel him into Downing Street remains the biggest unanswered question.

LONDON — Prime Minister Andy Burnham will lead a meeting of the government’s emergency committee Wednesday afternoon in response to ongoing heatwaves, droughts and wildfires across the U.K.

COBR (Cabinet Office Briefing Room) meetings are convened during a crisis or emergency — and come as the record-breaking conditions take a severe toll on U.K. infrastructure.

The crisis is an early test for Burnham, who came to office just last month.

A Downing Street spokesperson said: “We know how challenging this summer is proving, particularly for firefighters tackling wildfires, farmers working in drought conditions, and NHS staff in busy A&E units.

“We will continue to take the action needed to keep communities safe, protect water supplies, support farming communities and safeguard the environment.”

Britons are this week bracing for their fifth heatwave of 2026, with some temperatures forecast to exceed 36C. The Met Office, Britain’s national weather service, has warned that this summer is set to be the U.K.’s hottest since records began.

More than two-thirds of England is now in drought after the driest July since records began in 1836. The whole of Wales is also in drought, and more than 27 million people across the U.K. are facing water restrictions including hosepipe bans.

The U.K. is grappling with wildfires including at the New Forest national park in south England. The National Fire Chiefs Council responded to 458 wildfires last month, its busiest month on record.

‘Snail’s pace’

The rival Green Party first demanded a COBR meeting weeks ago after a wildfire engulfed parts of Suffolk in eastern England. Green Leader Zack Polanski said Wednesday’s meeting is “only a first step. This is a climate emergency which is leading to hundreds of deaths and stretching our firefighters, health staff and farmers to the limit. What we urgently need is concrete action.”

Liberal Democrat Energy Spokesperson Pippa Heylings warned a COBR meeting alone “will not put out fires or protect our communities,” and said government is “moving at a snail’s pace.”

Prior to today’s COBR, the U.K.’s National Drought Group and Severe Weather Resilience Network have held regular meetings, and the government has also vowed to work with water companies to build nine new reservoirs for the U.K. — which built its last reservoir back in 1992.

U.K. climate advisers have meanwhile spent much of the summer urging the country to up its game when it comes to adaptation for a warming world.

The Committee on Climate Change, a government advisory body, said in May that cooling to protect from heat, “increased flood preparedness, and improved water management are the highest priorities.”

“Deploying these adaptations at scale will help avoid loss of life – particularly amongst those most vulnerable to climate impacts – and unnecessary damage and disruption to people and to the economy,” it said.

The U.K. has been “built to a climate that no longer exists,” Swenja Surminski, a member of the Climate Change Committee Adaptation Committee, told MPs in June.

Additional reporting by Charlie Cooper.

CLACTON-ON-SEA — Voters seeking to re-elect Nigel Farage Thursday will have to scan past an array of comedy characters and oddballs on the longest ballot paper in British history.

The man who hopes to be the U.K.’s next prime minister is all but certain to retain his seaside fiefdom of Clacton — but his self-styled “people versus the establishment” electoral gambit is sowing some seeds of discontent even among loyal supporters.

Fear of Clacton becoming a “laughing stock” is a common refrain during a pair of focus groups POLITICO attended in the run-up to this week’s election.

The feeling that the town has been made to look daft was apparent even among those preparing to vote once again to return the Reform UK leader to parliament. And it’s not the rival candidate wearing a trash can on his head that they’re holding responsible for the “farce.”

Thursday may not be the end of the matter, either. A parliamentary investigation into Farage’s alleged failure to declare millions of pounds of donations in the run-up to his 2024 election could mean yet another by-election — and a tougher battle for the right-wing populist next time around.

Bid for absolution

This self-inflicted campaign is taking place because of Farage’s decision to resign his parliamentary seat and put his fate in the hands of Clacton’s residents.

Ordinary punters, he argued, should be the ones to have their say as he faced mounting questions over undeclared donations. The gamble was that such a vote would absolve him of wrongdoing in the eyes of the public, regardless of the findings in two parliamentary probes — one over a £5 million donation from a crypto-entrepreneur, and the other into support from a convicted fraudster. Farage has denied wrongdoing in both instances, arguing that help was given in a personal capacity.

But Britain’s main political parties took one look at this ploy and opted out. That’s how Count Binface, one of the most enthusiastic inheritors of a rich British tradition of standing as a satirical candidate in elections, ended up as Farage’s most high-profile rival. 

Others risking their £500 deposit to get their names on the 90-cm-long ballot paper include rival jokesters with names ranging from Howling Laud Hope, Nick the Incredible Flying Brick and Baron Von Thunderclap. Broadcast rules mean the 34-strong candidate list needs to be read in full at every mention of Farage’s by-election on TV.

A seaside town back on the map — in ways unwanted

The first focus group arranged by the More in Common think tank that POLITICO observed was made up of nine constituents who all voted for Farage in the 2024 general election, and are minded to do so again in the by-election. (Their names were withheld so they could speak candidly).

It was a retiree who was first to volunteer regret at Farage’s decision, blaming him for provoking an “influx of idiots” into the constituency. “Unfortunately, the action of causing a by-election has,” the former shopkeeper offered, “really made Clacton, in my opinion, a bit of a laughing stock.”

Two others repeated that same phrase, with one dog groomer-by-trade adding: “I think it was all a bit of a farce. I think he should have admitted that he was given this £5 million.”

“I guess it makes it very hard to trust him,” a delivery driver chimed in. “Most of my friends have gone towards Count Binface as opposed to Farage.”

Farage has since given varying explanations for some of the money he’s received, including as a “reward” for Brexit, or to cover lifelong security in the perilous world of modern politics. The veteran campaigner has been tetchy about the “unconditional gift” during media appearances, telling a radio interviewer he could spend it on Ferraris or bet on the horses, adding: “What’s it got to do with you?”

The dog groomer was among those lamenting the cost of running the by-election too. Reform had offered to pay for it, but in reality there is no mechanism to do this. The sheer number of candidates running has some extraordinary consequences.

Tendring Council, which is presiding over the vote, said even the cost of printing the ballot papers is four times that of a typical election because of their sheer length. Additional planning has had to go into every stage, from how the ballot is printed, folded and actually cast at polling stations — and counting will go on through the night and possibly past breakfast.

Then there are the Reform voters who have now been forced to choose whether to cast a vote for a comedy candidate or for Farage.

“From what I can tell about Binface, he seems like an okay guy from the research I’ve done,” said one local businessman. “And I do think there would be some tourism involved because of the absurdity of having that candidate as the MP of Clacton.”

That influx could already be observed, to some extent, on Tuesday this week. Even though it’s a school holiday, the pier and the amusement arcades in town weren’t exactly heaving with holiday-makers. 

But there was a steady stream of journalists — so many that they even tried to vox pop each other at times. Then there was an obscure mobile phone network that set up an ice cream van selling “99s for 99p” — in a publicity stunt echoing one of Binface’s manifesto pledges. A vintage Jaguar painted all over with the Union Jack (and used in the Austin Powers franchise) is touring the streets all day in support of Binface.

Farage’s social media has done a good job of showing how much support he still commands from the diehards — at times at messiah-like levels. And it’s not hard to find his “I’m with Nigel” placards outside homes, a picture of the candidate ringed with a halo-like ferris wheel.

But supporters in the first focus group suggested that the sheen could be coming off a man who has, just this year, been enough of a campaigning force to send the governing Labour Party searching for a new leader.

Old-school Tories’ views harden

The second focus group, held in a community garden overlooking the town, featured right-wing voters, and comprised largely of former Conservative supporters who, though discontented with their old party, aren’t eager to back Farage any time soon.

They roundly agreed with the “farce” analysis of the by-election. “People see this by-election as a total joke. If you talk to anyone, then that is their view,” said a retired printer.

They all lamented having no proper choice, though they generally backed the decision by Farage’s mainstream rivals not to contest the vote.

One bridge player with a firm grasp on politics described playing “eeny, meeny, miny, moe” with her postal vote to randomly pick a candidate who wasn’t Farage. Another spoke of spoiling her postal ballot and writing that the whole affair is a waste of time and money.

These were all the kind of right-wingers who Farage would want to win over to elevate himself from an insurgent outsider to true contender for high office — but their stances only seemed to have hardened in response to the by-election.

Anything but a crushing Farage victory would be a major upset. Constituency polling has him on course to win 73 percent of the vote to Binface’s 20 percent. Turnout in this bizarre by-election will also be closely looked at, as will spoiled ballots.

Reform aides have already been planning a victory speech to take place after the votes have finally been counted on Friday. But first their candidate will have to undergo that British ritual of standing next to an array of comedy characters on a stage in a leisure center to hear the results.

Should Farage make it back to parliament as expected, then the standards commissioner’s investigation into the donations resumes. That means yet more scrutiny at a time when Labour is riding a polling bounce after Andy Burnham took over as prime minister.

For the first time since March last year, Labour has topped POLITICO’s poll of polls ahead of Reform. The government’s apparent rehabilitation — combined with Reform being squeezed on the right by the splinter Restore Britain party — is adding to a worsening picture for Farage.

If the Reform UK leader is found to have committed wrongdoing and ends up being suspended from parliament, the next by-election — should he choose to fight it — could pose a far greater challenge. Not only would he come up against real opposition, but voters will have read yet more headlines about mega-bucks donations as they’re forced to the polls once again.

“It’ll be bad for us and it’ll make us look even more stupid,” said a Reform-minded instrument salesman when asked about the prospect of another by-election. “But then he [Farage] was the one that called it.”

CORRECTION: This article was updated to amend the number of constituents taking part in the first focus group.

LONDON — Nigel Farage ruled out entering talks with right-wing rival Rupert Lowe Monday — unless Lowe moves to expel a controversial ally.

The pathway to power for Farage’s Reform UK was already narrowing before new Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s takeover aided a polling bounce for the governing Labour Party.

While still polling in the single digits, Rupert Lowe’s splinter party has been proving it can eat into a significant chunk of Reform’s vote. Lowe formed Restore Britain after being kicked out of Reform — but he has been, at least ostensibly, dangling an olive branch for Farage to grasp in recent weeks.

On Monday the prospect of the two warring factions signing a make-up pact seemed to be at an impasse.

Farage used a press conference in Westminster to publicly state a new condition for holding discussions with “that party,” as he referred to Restore. Lowe must, he said, kick out Restore’s co-founder — a move Lowe has already rejected.

“I’m always happy to meet people and talk to people — within reason,” Farage said when asked by POLITICO what his conditions for entering talks with Lowe would be.

“But I do think it’s fair to say that there are one or two people in the orbit of the upper echelons of that party who, if I sat down and talked to, I think our members and our voters would be utterly shocked that I’d done it,” he added.

“So we can talk to Rupert Lowe — that’s fine. But when you have co-founders, etcetera, putting out what I would call the ‘old theory’ — the old theory that we probably haven’t heard in this country since 1936 — and you have other adjacent publicly-supportive people demanding that all Jews be removed from the country, just as an example…

“So the condition I would put on it is those people would have to be out of the inner circle — and I think that for me would be the only way we could sensibly proceed.”

The co-founder Farage referred to is Charlie Downes, who was this month accused of implying that Farage had been “bought” by Jewish supporters. Campaigners against anti-semitism accused Downes of perpetuating the “oldest smear” against Jewish people.

Farage’s attack on “publicly-supportive people demanding that all Jews be removed from the country” is meanwhile a reference to Steve Laws, a backer of Restore Britain who is an advocate of “total remigration.” Lowe told POLITICO in June that Laws plans “no part in our decision-making process,” although Lowe said he is “very welcome” to support the party.

Lowe had already indicated his opposition to booting out Downes after the Telegraph first reported Farage’s rejection of talks. “Farage and Reform have also said that Restore Britain must outright sack Charlie Downes — putting a young Christian man out of work, just as he is looking to build his life and start a family,” Lowe wrote on X. “That is simply not how I operate.”

It’s the latest twist in a convoluted saga that is commanding attention on the right of British politics.

Lowe last week offered to put “past disagreements” with Farage aside so that the pair can work together. But he set five conditions for doing so, including the exclusion of Conservative defectors to Reform from a future Farage cabinet.

Prisons push

Farage’s comments came at a press conference he held to add to pressure on the new prime minister over Britain’s prisons, which have in recent years been hovering around breaking point.

Farage said Reform UK will begin talks with El Salvador about renting prison space so a future government he leads could deport all foreign prisoners to serve their sentences abroad — an echo of Donald Trump’s controversial policy for prisoners from the U.S.

Other possible countries that could forge similar deals, Farage suggested, are Kosovo, as well as Estonia or Lithuania.

Reform claimed the plans would free up 10,000 spaces in U.K. prisons. However, nearly a third of foreign nationals in detention are on remand, meaning they haven’t been convicted of a crime and are awaiting trial.

Pressed about the disparity, home affairs spokesperson Zia Yusuf told POLITICO: “That’s not the gotcha that you might think it is.

“The vast majority of those people end up being convicted — so in terms of the practical plan that we’ve laid out, it makes no difference.”

LONDON — Britain’s justice ministry said it is not “actively” considering holding a public inquiry into the U.K. activities of sex offender Jeffrey Epstein after the prospect of a probe was raised by two government ministers.

Victims Minister Alex Davies-Jones told the BBC on Tuesday evening that Britain’s new Prime Minister Andy Burnham was considering holding an inquiry following discussions with him and Cabinet Secretary Antonia Romeo when she was reappointed victims minister last month.

Asked about a potential inquiry on Wednesday morning, Justice Minister Jake Richards told Sky News the prime minister “will look into it.”

“He’ll take his time, no doubt, to think about the best route for victims, but also to crucially ensure lessons are learned, to make sure that these sorts of things never happen again,” Richards said.

But in a statement to journalists issued later on Wednesday, a Ministry of Justice spokesperson said: “The Prime Minister is committed to meeting with victims, but a public inquiry is not being actively considered.”

The spokesperson said the department is “reviewing what is possible and will look at all options to support victims and survivors.”

Davies-Jones, who accused the previous Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government of failing to listen to Epstein’s survivors, told the BBC’s Newsnight program Wednesday that Burnham had already agreed to meet the late financier’s victims.

“We are looking into this, we are reviewing what is possible,” Davies-Jones said. “I have been assured that the prime minister is taking this very seriously. He will meet with those victims and he is looking at what is possible, now he has access to all of the information as prime minister to see what action we can take.”

A BBC investigation last year found around 90 flights linked to Epstein arrived and departed at U.K. airports, some with alleged British victims on board.

This article has been updated to include a statement from the U.K. Ministry of Justice.

LONDON — Two of Britain’s leading right-wing politicians are stuck in a will-they-won’t-they tussle — and it could have big implications for the next general election.

Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe have spent the week flirting with, retreating from … and then once again talking up a rapprochement between their two parties, Farage’s Reform UK and Lowe’s Restore Britain.

It comes after months of bitter briefing against Farage by Lowe, whose hard-right party — while still polling in single digits — has eaten into support for Farage’s much larger right-wing force.

POLITICO recaps the saga — and tries to map out what it could mean for the wider British right.

Who are the key players?

Farage has been a dominant figure in British politics for many years. He was originally leader of the Euroskeptic UKIP, then the Brexit Party, and now Reform UK after a comeback at the 2024 general election. That election delivered five Reform MPs, including Farage … and Rupert Lowe himself.

Best known to some for a tumultuous stint as chair of Southampton Football Club, the multimillionaire Lowe briefly joined Farage in the European Parliament in 2019 as a Brexit Party MEP. He unsuccessfully stood for Reform in a 2024 by-election, but the pair were reunited after the general election when Lowe won the coastal seat of Great Yarmouth.

Why did they fall out?

It’s complicated. On the surface, it’s a policy split, but there’s plenty of personal bad blood too.

Farage has always taken a hardline approach to immigration — but some of Lowe’s stated positions went too far even for him. The Great Yarmouth MP publicly backed the deportation of families of people convicted of child grooming, a move the Reform UK leader rejected. Lowe said he had been “silenced” by the party.

Then Elon Musk weighed in. In January last year, the tech tycoon used his platform to lay into Farage, saying he was no longer the right person for the job — and giving his backing to Lowe. Lowe is a hit on the Musk-owned social platform X, where his lengthy posts have topped up his earnings.

After publicly criticizing Farage’s management of Reform, Lowe lost the Reform UK whip in March 2025. In a significant escalation, he was reported to the police over alleged threats of physical violence against Reform chairman Zia Yusuf — though no further action was taken by the authorities.

The pair’s mutual loathing only seemed to escalate.

Lowe sat as an independent MP in the House of Commons, before setting up Restore Britain as a cross-party group, publishing policy papers on mass deportations and holding its own inquiry into the emotive issue of grooming gangs.

It became a full-blown party this February, capitalizing on the Great Yarmouth MP’s growing X following.

What’s that meant for Farage?

The Reform UK leader, who has a well-established history of falling out with one-time allies, initially kept his distance from Lowe, claiming the hard-right party’s following is minimal.

However, Lowe’s movement has already proven effective at splitting the already fragmented right-wing vote. The Great Yarmouth First party, an affiliate of Restore, picked up nine seats at May’s local elections and denied Reform a majority on Norfolk County Council, although Reform still made huge gains nationally.

At the Makerfield by-election, which Labour’s Andy Burnham won shortly before becoming British prime minister, Restore Britain bagged 6.8 percent to Reform’s 34.5 percent. Even though their combined totals wouldn’t have beaten Burnham, Farage lambasted the result, asking Restore voters: “What do you want?”

A similar pattern emerged at last week’s Greater Manchester mayoral by-election to succeed Burnham, where Restore picked up 8.7 percent of first preference votes.

What’s the latest on a rapprochement?

After the Greater Manchester contest, Lowe shot a 12-minute X video calling for the two men to put “personal differences aside” to deliver credible change. Lowe’s monologue had five conditions. They included a referendum on the death penalty, banning halal and kosher meat, and preventing former ministers from the center-right Conservatives who’ve defected to Reform from having a role in a future Farage government.

The following day, Farage claimed he had reached out to Lowe but had received no reply. Lowe then denied this and accused Farage of “outright lying about our private conversations” — even publishing a purported WhatsApp message from the Reform UK boss.

Farage told Times Radio those claims were “extraordinary” and that Lowe is “not a very easy person to deal with.” But he insisted he has a willingness to “put past differences aside in the interest of getting some sort of unity” … which suggests the pair might come to the table.

What does this mean for the Tories?

There’s another layer of intrigue to this row, too.

The Conservatives — who were running Britain until a spectacular general election defeat in 2024 — have ruled out any arrangement with Farage’s Reform UK, decrying the party’s economic policies and questioning Farage’s financial affairs.

But they have sounded much more conciliatory towards Lowe.

The party gave him one of its seats on the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee, which scrutinizes government spending. Party Leader Kemi Badenoch even praised Lowe as someone who “turns up to work. Nigel Farage doesn’t.”

Those answers suggest that placating Lowe — and his huge online following — is no longer seen as bad politics for Britain’s two big right-wing parties.

LONDON — Since becoming Britain’s prime minister, Andy Burnham — the Greater Manchester mayor for nine years — has leapt at any chance to promote his old stomping ground.

POLITICO highlights six times Burnham awkwardly shoe-horned the city into his premiership. 

1) No. 10 North 

Downing Street too London-centric? Just make a Manchester one.

Manchester’s Heron House building is the site of a new No.10 North, dubbed the “situation room for growth” by the PM. Burnham has vowed to work from the building regularly, alongside other Cabinet ministers. 

When its inaugural meeting took place with regional mayors, the PM (who is married and has three kids, remember) said this might be the “best day of my life.” In a sign that Burnham’s living his best life, there’s even a gold “The Queen Is Dead” disk on the wall from Manchester indie legends The Smiths.

“It’s definitely gone down well here,” says University of Manchester academic Robert Ford of Burnham’s regular references to the city.

“It’s a clever bit of messaging, because it signals to people up here, where he remains very popular, that he hasn’t forgotten about the city that he’s just departed from, and is continuing to place it at the heart of everything.”

2) Inviting Trump to Manchester

From Buckingham Palace to … the Salford Lads’ Club?

During his first call with Donald Trump — a pivotal diplomatic moment — Andy Burnham offered the U.S. president an invite to Manchester. 

The U.K. is hosting the G20 next year, and it’s widely expected to take place in the city. Any excuse…  

3) Oman-chester

Looking to build some rapport with a world leader? Try the local angle.

A summary of Burnham’s first call with Sultan of Oman Haitham bin Tariq Al Said shows that the PM talked about the country’s Al Batinah North Growth Hub — “inspired by the Manchester Growth Hub that the prime minister set up in his former role as mayor of Greater Manchester.”

That’s two Manchesters in one sentence.

4) Boosting Mancunian bands

It’s not just the gold disk on the wall of No. 10 North.

Burnham’s put his love of Manchester’s musical history front and center.

He dad-danced to New Order’s “True Faith” on becoming Labour leader, and used a TikTok blind ranking of five bands which included … four from Manchester.

And, of course, his official Spotify playlist during the Makerfield by-election was flooded with songs by Mancunian artists.

5) ‘Manchester of India.’

Improving diplomatic ties cuts both ways as world leaders try to get in Burnham’s good books by referencing his favorite city.

During a call with Indian PM Narendra Modi, Burnham praised the contributions of Indian communities to the U.K., while Modi noted the links between the two leaders’ home cities of Manchester and Ahmedabad, in Gujarat, respectively. The Indian leader called it the “Manchester of India.”

No. 10 put it in their readout of the call — obvs.

6) Chatting Manchester slang

Burnham’s TikTok game includes educating the entire U.K. on the finer points of Greater Manchester dialect.

In a weekend post promoting his devolution agenda, the prime minister declared he couldn’t be convinced a bread roll is called anything but a “barm” — the north-west slang for a bap.

Burnham was trying to make the point that what works in one place doesn’t succeed in another — with the help of the Mancunian metaphor.

Andy Burnham has promised to transform Britain, but can he afford it?

This autumn, Chancellor John Healey will deliver the new government’s first Budget, so what might it include?

In the first episode of Sam and Anne’s summer box set, they sit down with Sky News’ economics editor Ed Conway to look at the spending choices facing the new prime minister.

How will the government tackle the cost of living? What do the bond markets make of Mr Burnham? And how much control does any chancellor really have when conflict in the Middle East and global events are shaping so much of Britain’s economy?

LONDON — Over the past decade, Nigel Farage has ripped political conventions apart, dictated the debate on Brexit and immigration, and driven his party into contention to win the next general election. 

But now the hard-right Reform UK leader faces what may be the biggest challenge in a career suddenly engulfed by troubles. 

From a far more potent rival in new Prime Minister Andy Burnham to a resurgent Tory party, pressure over his finances, and a dubious gamble on a special election, Farage and his team are feeling the heat. And their poll ratings have started to slide. 

“Farage is facing something of a perfect storm,” said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London and an expert on the right in Britain. “But while he’s on the ropes he’s by no means on the floor, let alone out for the count.”

Farage insists he won’t be “cowed” by what he describes as intimidation and says he is preparing for a general election as soon as this autumn, although Burnham has said he has no imminent plans to call one.

It’s an open question whether the Burnham bounce in the polls and the dip in Farage’s fortunes mark a decisive shift in momentum in British politics or merely a blip. What is clear is that the challenges facing Reform are substantial, and growing. 

Farage’s side admits that Burnham has lifted the Labour government since he took office on July 20 and hurt Reform with a blizzard of policy pledges and energetic social media videos that have dominated media attention. 

Reform’s leader, meanwhile, has been beset by questions over whether he broke parliamentary rules by not declaring a £5 million donation. Last month he quit parliament to trigger a special election in his constituency of Clacton on the east coast of England, vowing to take on the establishment he says is trying to stitch him up over the furor. 

But with none of the mainstream parties willing to play ball, the contest has assumed an air of farce: Farage’s only well-known opponent is a candidate who goes by Count Binface, a serial joker who dresses up as a trash can. 

As if that weren’t damaging enough, the Conservative Party that Farage has spent much of his career tormenting is staging its own recovery in the polls, as leader Kemi Badenoch strengthens her position. Even the number of migrants arriving in small boats has fallen, robbing Reform of its signature attack line to use against the government. 

The result is a notable slide in the polls both for the party and for Farage himself. 

Polling pains

According to POLITICO’s polling partners, London-based Public First, Farage’s net approval rating has dropped from -16 in early May to -21 at the end of July. Among people who voted Conservative in 2024 — a key target group for Reform — his rating has fallen by 15 points over the same period.

“Reform has lost significant support among the people who historically voted Conservative since the local elections,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First. “Rather than being able to get on the front foot during the early weeks of Burnham’s leadership, the Clacton by-election is making Reform seem less relevant, and Labour has been able to largely ignore them while defining what they stand for under new leadership.” 

In a slew of headline voting-intention polls in recent days, Burnham’s Labour has pulled level with Reform and in some cases taken the lead, ending 15 months of consistent national poll leads for Farage’s party. 

“We have been here before. We have dealt with difficult moments before,” said Gawain Towler, a board member of Reform UK and the party’s former communications chief. The attacks on Farage over his financial arrangements are unfair, and come from questionable sources, he said, though they have caused damage even so. 

“There has been an impact and the Burnham bounce does also have an impact on the polls of course. The two things are happening together,” Towler said. “But what’s interesting is the impact these attacks are having on our supporters is very little because they expect the establishment to behave like this.”

The great establishment stitch-up

Public First’s analysis suggests there is truth to the idea that Farage’s core support has solidified as a result of his recent difficulties: During the same period that his overall approval rating has fallen nationally, from early May to the end of July, it has risen by 13 points among people who voted Reform at the last election in 2024. 

According to Towler, there is evidence that “the Establishment” is going after Reform with a series of underhanded leaks and attacks. That narrative — of a vengeful elite intent on punishing the people’s champion and the underdog — has proven powerful for populist leaders such as Farage, Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen in France and many others. 

Like Farage, however, Burnham is portraying himself as an outsider who is on the side of ordinary voters against the elite. The next election, whenever it comes, may be decided by which of these two can best embody the insurgent spirit.

“Nigel Farage is the most scrutinized politician in British politics and he has been for quite a long time — because of what he represents,” Towler said. “He is the leader of a political party, one that threatens not just the political establishment but the establishment across the board.” 

Towler argued that the British establishment is trying to shake Reform’s confidence and soften it up for an election campaign, likening the assault to the prelude to the World War I Battle of Messines, with “heavy artillery for weeks and weeks, trying to break morale.”

“If they manage to take Farage out, there’s a general election tomorrow. That’s what they’re trying to do,” he said. “They’re trying to break our morale as a party and I think you’ll find we have more morale, and we’re made of sterner stuff than they suppose.” 

Walking away

Queen Mary’s Bale said that while Farage is in difficulty, his situation is “serious but not terminal — not yet anyway.” If polls worsen and the financial scandals deepen significantly, that could change, he said. “If he decides to throw in the towel — and given his record and his thin skin, nobody should rule out that possibility — Reform is in serious trouble.”

Farage has history of walking away. He quit as leader of his previous party, the UK Independence Party, after losing his bid to win a parliamentary seat in 2015, only to be persuaded to return a few days later.

He also stood down as Reform leader and announced he would be retiring from politics in 2021, but jumped back into campaigning when former PM Rishi Sunak called a general election in 2024. 

That comeback decision, according to Towler, was the moment Farage reconciled himself to the hard reality of challenging the political establishment to win power.

“He knew it was going to be really hard. He knew that not just him, but a lot of other people around him — his friends, his long-term friends and allies and supporters — are also getting attacked,” Towler said. “And this will continue. We know it will continue. But we then say, hold on, this is our country. We can’t give up. How can we possibly give up?”