The Democrats scored a resounding victory in this week’s U.S. midterm elections. But will their triumph actually change anything for Europe?
With the balance of power shifting in Congress, could the incoming lawmakers move the needle on issues Europe cares about, from tariffs to support for Ukraine? And what do MAGA’s bruising losses mean for Europe’s own nationalist and populist parties? Are they a warning for Europe’s far right? Or could the very issues that battered Republicans — affordability and the cost of living — end up propelling Europe’s far right into power?
Joining host Sarah Wheaton to discuss this is POLITICO Europe’s Executive Editor Carrie Budoff Brown, who also led our U.S. newsroom during Donald Trump’s first term. We’ll also speak with Gregor Schwung, a reporter at WELT currently on the ground in Washington, D.C., and POLITICO’s Foreign Affairs columnist Jamie Dettmer.
Questions? Comments? Let us know on WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.
LONDON — Nigel Farage blamed Donald Trump’s midterms catastrophe on broken anti-foreign intervention promises Thursday, branding his decision to launch a war with Iran as “bizarre.”
The U.S. president’s right-wing ally in Britain echoed other high-profile conservative figures in lamenting the price-spiking conflict and warned against a fresh campaign of attacks in the Middle East.
Farage has long considered Trump a personal friend, but has come under pressure to distance himself from the U.S. president, who is deeply unpopular in the U.K.
The Reform leader has been more critical against a backdrop of global economic woes triggered by the war waged against Tehran by America and Israel.
Farage, leader of the insurgent right-wing Reform UK party, told reporters after a defense speech in London that he wouldn’t have supported a drawn-out conflict with Iran. He said it was “bizarre” that Trump, of all people, took such action, considering he took power on a pledge to avoid endless foreign wars.
Asked about the biggest lesson he took from the midterms carnage for the Republicans, Farage said: “Keep your promises.”
He praised Trump’s “very good” track record of staying faithful to the electorate during his first term, but said, “He broke a promise — that was no more foreign wars.”
“We’re eight months in, and the resultant rise in gas and diesel prices, more than anything else, is what did them in,” Farage said.
He later told broadcasters that he worries the U.S. president will “continue aggressively attacking Iran” now that he has lost Congress.
Farage was initially supportive after Trump launched strikes in February. He urged the U.K. government to “back the Americans in this vital fight against Iran!”
Senior figures in Reform UK have been trying to distance themselves from Trump in the wake of MAGA’s midterm drubbing at the hands of the Democrats.
One high-ranking adviser, granted anonymity to discuss transatlantic relations, said the party would continue building “good relations” with senior Republicans like JD Vance and Marco Rubio.
“Reform already has good relations with multiple Republicans, and that process will continue,” they added.
Others argued for greater network building with right-wing movements in Europe.
“I’ve never been a huge fan of Mr. Trump,” said one official. “He does speak for a particular slice of American society, but in practical terms what happens on the continent is somewhat more important,” the official added, pointing to the rise of right-wing parties in France, Italy and Spain.
“Given we have a PM that is committed on salami slicing us back into the EU,” they added. “Personally, I think that’s more important than America.”
The U.S. government has scuttled a French push for the G7 to coordinate on advanced AI safety, with a White House official calling it “unnecessary bureaucracy.”
France’s digital minister Anne Le Hénanff told a French Senate hearing on Wednesday that she held two ministerial meetings in September and October to secure G7 commitments to a high-level working group to test frontier AI — the most advanced models — and share information about risks and incidents.
That effort “did not reach a successful conclusion” because the U.S. wanted to pursue its own approach, the French minister said.
“They are not prepared, at this stage, to issue a joint statement with the other six G7 nations, and have asked us to wait for the findings of their own assessment,” said Le Hénanff. “Naturally, we regret this, but we are continuing to move forward as Europeans on this issue.”
A White House official, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said that the French government proposed a “poorly defined body” to cooperate on AI that the administration feared would “create unnecessary bureaucracy.”
The official pointed to U.S. President Donald Trump’s Super Intelligence Force, saying it brings government and industry together to accelerate innovation and ensure the safe deployment of models.
Digital Minister Anne Le Hénanff speaks in the French parliament in Paris on Oct. 28, 2026. | Magali Cohen/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images
France, which holds the rotating presidency of the G7 for 2026, issued a chair’s summary statement after the Oct. 20 virtual G7 tech ministerial, which noted that ministers considered closer coordination on identifying risks and sharing incident information, as well as a dedicated high-level group. It was not a joint statement endorsed by all G7 members.
Trump began promoting “super intelligence” as a replacement for “artificial intelligence” at the U.N. General Assembly in late September. A week later, he ordered federal agencies to use the new term.
G7 ministers in May agreed to discuss secure AI and risk assessment, which was followed by the G7 leaders meeting the following month in Évian.
But the stakes have risen as advanced AI systems gain unprecedented cyber capabilities that can be used for both attack and defense. In July, Hugging Face disclosed an intrusion driven by an autonomous AI agent. OpenAI later said models used in an internal cybersecurity test had bypassed controls and compromised parts of its own research infrastructure and Hugging Face’s systems.
Le Hénanff said France would keep pushing the issue, citing INESIA, France’s national AI evaluation and safety institute, and Inria, its public research institute for digital science and technology, as resources for the work.
The White House official said: “Under President Trump’s leadership, America will continue to lead the world in SI innovation.”
Overnight, the Democratic party has won the U.S. Senate and made decisive gains in the House. But this might not necessarily be good news for Europe.
On this special episode, Zoya Sheftalovich is joined by Sarah Wheaton in Brussels and our Global Politics Bureau Chief Jack Blanchard, who is ringing in from Washington. Jack will give us a picture of election night and the “generational changing of the guard” as he describes it, which has seen big wins for Democrats across the country.
But could this blue wave actually mean Donald Trump — more curtailed at home — turns his attention instead to Europe? And in that case, could we see transatlantic relations sour further in the next two years? We dive deeper into all these questions and more.
Do you have any thoughts or questions on these initial results from the U.S. midterm elections? Contact us on WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.
Nach ihrem Rücktritt als Arbeitsministerin und SPD-Co-Chefin bricht Bärbel Bas ihr Schweigen und rechnet mit der unerbittlichen Härte des Berliner Politikbetriebs ab. Ihre offenen Worte über fehlende Menschlichkeit, den Druck aus der Koalition und Enttäuschung über Friedrich Merz bergen neue Sprengkraft für die Koalition. Maximilian Stascheit beleuchtet, warum dieser Auftritt eine Debatte über den Umgang in der Politik, aber auch über Privilegien von Spitzenpolitikern entfacht.
Die Welt blickt auf die Midterms in den USA, deren Ausgang nicht nur die Machtverhältnisse in Washington, sondern auch das Schicksal der Ukraine massiv beeinflussen wird. Europa-Experte Hans von der Burchard ordnet ein, welche Auswirkungen wahrscheinlich sind und wie diese Lage beim heutigen Besuch des litauischen Präsidenten Gitanas Nausėda im Kanzleramt diskutiert wird.
Im 200-Sekunden-Interview warnt der ehemalige Außenminister und Vorsitzende der Atlantik-Brücke, Sigmar Gabriel, vor einem gelähmten Amerika, das sich zunehmend auf den Indopazifik konzentriert. Unter dem Motto „Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst“ skizziert er die drastischen Konsequenzen und erklärt, warum Europa sicherheitspolitisch und wirtschaftlich umso dringender auf eigenen Beinen stehen muss.
Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Rixa Fürsen, Maximilian Stascheit und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig.
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Jamie Dettmer is an associate editor and a foreign affairs columnist at POLITICO.
If Democrats do as well as expected in today’s U.S. midterm elections, champagne corks will pop across Europe. But those raising a glass may want to think about the morning after.
A Democratic takeover of Congress is unlikely to offer Europe immediate relief. Constrained at home, Trump would still be free to focus on foreign policy and trade, where the U.S. executive branch faces relatively few congressional checks — increasing the risk of fresh disputes and tougher demands on Europe.
“It would be a mistake for Europeans to assume there will be warmer transatlantic relations,” said Wolfgang Ischinger, the veteran German diplomat and outgoing chair of the Munich Security Conference. “My assumption is the exact opposite will happen.”
A recent EU-wide survey found 58 percent of respondents rooting for the Democrats, compared with just 18 percent for Donald Trump’s Republicans. But while opinion polls suggest the U.S. president’s European critics will get their wish, they’d better avoid any triumphalism or crowing, counsels Ischinger.
“There will be voices here in Europe, some important ones, who’ll want to celebrate and congratulate the Democrats, but I think that would be poisonous,” he told POLITICO.
“I’d advise my European friends to be restrained and avoid creating any pretext for the White House to be mad at Europe — that is any more than it already is,” he added with a chuckle.
Others are skeptical that reticence will make any difference. They include Nathalie Tocci, a former adviser to two EU foreign policy chiefs.
“To be honest, I don’t think Trump really needs any reasons or excuses to lash out at Europe,” she said. And it will be hard not to celebrate, she argued, if you “care about democracy,” given the ties between Trump’s MAGA movement and populist, far-right politicians in Europe.
A setback for Trump could lift the spirits of Europe’s liberals and centrists, who have seized on electoral rebuffs for Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić as evidence that populism has peaked — or at least plateaued.
That conclusion may be premature. The polling strength of France’s Marine Le Pen and recent gains by Germany’s Alternative for Germany suggest populist politics remain potent. Still, a rebuff for MAGA would give liberals and centrists a morale boost, Tocci said.
But would a Democratic victory benefit the EU in the near term? “Not much,” Ischinger said. A Democratic takeover of Congress would have little practical impact on Europe and could even make matters worse.
A voter fills out their ballot at a polling station in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Oct. 28, 2026. | Stephen Maturen/Getty Images
“If Donald Trump finds himself ensnared in congressional investigations, impeachment procedures and is constrained on the domestic front by a hostile Congress, he’s bound to gravitate to where Congress is weak — on foreign and trade policies,” he added. “We need to brace ourselves for not more harmonious transatlantic relations but more acrimony and even more Trump demands on Europe.”
Kurt Volker, who served as George W. Bush’s last U.S. ambassador to NATO, is of the same mind.
“Don’t expect much change from the Trump administration,” he cautioned. “Congress will investigate everything. They will investigate Trump, his family, Trump family businesses, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Elon Musk, Pete Hegseth and Kash Patel at the FBI. Trump will fight this all the way, and it’ll be a big circus.”
“Okay, the Democrats will be much more supportive of Ukraine and NATO, but they can’t direct Trump to do things,” he added. “They can approve money, but Trump just turns around and says, ‘Well, I don’t have to spend it.’”
Volker predicts Trump will step up his use of pocket rescission, a contested legal theory for clawing back congressionally appropriated funds. “That has been the pattern on so many things, tariffs most notably,” said Volker. “But on lots of things, he’d prefer to run out the clock and fight in the courts.”
The former ambassador said he’s unsure which way Trump will go when it comes to Iran — relaunch military operations or leave the crisis for Europe and Asia to solve. On NATO and reducing U.S. deployments in Europe, Volker suspects Trump will be careful out of fear of domestic backlash.
Then again, Trump is “extraordinarily hard to predict,” said Bronwen Maddox, director and CEO of Britain’s Chatham House think tank. “Maybe he’ll retreat after a bit of initial lashing out at the election result and focus on his planned monuments, including the White House ballroom,” she speculated hopefully but without too much conviction.
Maddox sees no cause for celebration, whatever the election result or Trump’s response. European leaders should instead reflect on how much the U.S. has changed. “American voters elected Trump twice, and even if they now turn on him, those elections show their focus is now inward,” she said.
Europeans were slow to grasp the significance of MAGA and how long the movement might endure, Maddox said. She believes too little recognition remains of how much the American political landscape has changed — including the Democratic Party.
“I don’t think America sees itself in Europe in the way it used to,” she said. “For me, that message has been clear for some time.”
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article misstated Wolfgang Ischinger’s role at the Munich Security Conference. He is its outgoing chair.
Les Européens attendent avec beaucoup d’impatience de connaître dans la nuit de mardi à mercredi le résultat des élections de mi-mandat aux Etats-Unis. Deux ans après sa réélection triomphale, Donald Trump subira-t-il le revers électoral que lui prédisent les sondages ? Si oui, quelles pourraient en être les conséquences pour les 27 qui subissent de plein fouet les dommages des décisions d’un président américain hostile à leur égard (Moyen-Orient, Ukraine, droits de douanes, Groënland,…). Les Européens peuvent-ils réellement espérer des inflexions avec un Congrès démocrate ? Anthony Lattier en discute avec Nicholas Vinocur, spécialiste des relations internationales à POLITICO et co-auteur de la newsletter Brussels Playbook.
Pour suivre ces élections, téléchargez la nouvelle application POLITICO. Des questions ? Des commentaires ? Ecrivez-nous sur Whatsapp au +32 494 07 69 41.
The jet lag has barely worn off, but Brussels is already grappling with what its new relationship with Canada could actually look like.
After the 48-hour whirlwind EU-Canada summit in Montreal, Prime Minister Mark Carney has given the EU six months to hash out what “associate membership” actually means. On the show, Zoya Sheftalovich and Nick Vinocur unpack the deals struck at the summit and what lies ahead for the relations between the two powers.
Next, after last month’s unwieldy European Council summit drew criticism of its president, Antonio Costa, he’s doubling down on his push to secure a budget by 2027. This week, his head of cabinet Pedro Lourtie will be holding so-called “confessionals” with national governments to get a sense of where they stand.
And finally, Europe’s coffin makers are afraid Chinese competitors could be the death of their business.
Questions, comments? Please write in! Find us on WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.
In this special edition, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney sits down with POLITICO’s chief EU correspondent Zoya and Ottawa bureau chief Nick Taylor-Vaisey for an exclusive interview.
With Canada and the European Union exploring a much closer partnership, Carney discusses his vision for Canada’s place in a changing world, the future of transatlantic relations and what it would take to build a lasting alliance with Europe. And with Donald Trump reshaping relations between traditional allies, how far is Canada prepared to go in charting a new course?
If you have a question or comment, don’t hesitate! Message us on our WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.
European leaders are descending on Montreal in a bid to forge closer ties with Canada.
On today’s show, host Zoya Sheftalovich catches up with Sarah Wheaton, who’s on the ground at the EU-Canada summit. They unpack what the talks could actually deliver — from defense and critical raw materials to space and AI — and the Trump-shaped shadow hanging over it all.
Next, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen may be here in Montreal, but back in Brussels, questions remain about her role in the EU’s Covid vaccine deal with Pfizer.
Finally: Eurovision has revealed its 2027 lineup — but the row over Israel’s participation is far from over.
Questions, comments? Please write in! Find us on WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.
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