GROSSETO, Italy — The Italo-Spanish clash on border controls is escalating.

Italy on Friday said it has no intention of suspending border checks on travelers from Spain, “a friendly country,” and rebuffed Madrid’s threats to retaliate if Rome maintains the emergency measures it instituted in response to the mass arrival of migrants in the Spanish exclave Ceuta last week.

“Italy does not accept ultimatums or demands from abroad regarding national security and border control,” the Office of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni wrote in a statement.

Earlier in the day, the Spanish government had threatened to take “proportional measures” if Rome did not stop its reintroduced border checks and temporary suspension of the Schengen Agreement by Aug. 9.

In its statement, Rome said it would keep these controls in place “at least until August 15 and, in any case, until security and terrorism risks to Italy can be completely ruled out,” adding that a new “migratory wave” is expected in Ceuta on that date.

“Only when it is certain that there will be no security or terrorism risks for Italy, that there will be no new wave and that there are no irregular migrants heading toward European territory will it be possible to reconsider what has already been decided,” said the document.

The EU has added five individuals to its Russia sanctions list. The move was driven by Moscow’s “intensified strikes deliberately targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure” in Ukraine, according to a press release.

The press release does not refer to a specific attack, but earlier this week Russia carried out one of its deadliest barrages on the Ukrainian capital, killing 17. In July, a similar attack in Kyiv killed 12.

Among those included in the new sanctions is Ramil Badgutdinov — the head of a company that helps produce the Iskander-M ballistic missiles — and Aleksandr Dyukarev, head of the KrasMash plant that produces Sarmat ballistic missiles. Russia has not yet used Sarmat missiles in Ukraine, but Moscow has been testing them.

The remaining individuals are directors of Russian defense companies involved in communications systems and “the development of software for unmanned aerial vehicles and space-related military technologies,” reads the press release.

“With its army stalled on the battlefield, Moscow is further escalating its campaign of terror against civilians,” wrote EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas on X. “The EU must continue to intensify pressure on Russia until Moscow ends its war.”

Spain warned Italy on Friday it will take “proportional measures” if Rome does not end border controls on travelers from Spain by Aug. 9, escalating the dispute triggered by last week’s mass arrival of unauthorized migrants in the Spanish exclave of Ceuta.

Italy reintroduced border controls with Spain on Aug. 1, temporarily suspending the Schengen Agreement allowing passport-free travel across 29 European countries — a measure Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani called a “necessary choice to safeguard the security of our citizens and defend European borders.”

“The measure adopted by the Italian government is unjust, contrary to the interests of the EU and discriminatory toward the Spanish population,” the Spanish government wrote in a statement blasting Rome for its “unprecedented” decision.

In addition to slamming Rome for imposing border controls that inconvenienced thousands of passengers by creating legal uncertainty in the middle of the summer holiday season, Madrid also took Italy to task for criticizing Spain’s handling of migrants while failing to protect its own borders.

Even though “Italy is the EU member state that has recorded the highest number of irregular crossings in recent years, with figures that have at times been twice those of Spain … Spain has never introduced controls on travelers from Italy,” the Spanish government said.

Madrid has now given the Italian government two days to either lift the border controls or face reciprocal measures that aim to “protect the interests and dignity” of Spanish citizens.

“Governments should work to promote understanding between countries and serve the general interests of their populations, rather than create divisions and pointless conflicts driven by domestic electoral considerations,” the statement said.

“We trust that Europeanism, common sense and good faith will prevail.”

Owner of X and world’s first trillionaire Elon Musk attacked French presidential candidate Marine Tondelier on Thursday, after the Greens party leader said French authorities should be able to suspend the platform during electoral campaigns in case of foreign interference.

“I demand that she be shut down for treason against France!” Musk wrote on X, prompting a strong reaction from Tondelier.

“France does not need lessons in patriotism from a foreign billionaire who thinks he gets to decide which European political leaders should be silenced. Democracy is not for sale. Not even to the richest man in the world,” she responded.

“I’d rather be accused of defending democracy than of trying to buy it.”

Musk, who is a former adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, has regularly weighed in on European politics and thrown his support behind far-right candidates and parties — and France is no exception.

In July, Musk said far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen was “France’s last hope,” but her National Rally party was quick to downplay his backing to avoid being associated with the controversial owner of Tesla and SpaceX.

Hard-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon also slammed Musk’s attacks against Tondelier on Thursday, before accusing the French government of not doing enough to fight foreign interference.

“The French presidential election is an open bar for all the manipulators in the world,” he wrote — a criticism Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot promptly rejected.

Earlier this week, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said the government was boosting efforts to detect and punish foreign interference in the upcoming 2027 election, while presidential candidates Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe, as well as likely candidate Raphaël Glucksmann shared they had been victims of Russian disinformation campaigns.

 It’s August in Brussels, which means it’s vacation time.

Whether you’re heading off to the beach or holding down the fort in town,  this episode is brimming with book recommendations from our newsroom and from you, our listeners. Whatever your genre preference, from true crime thrillers to deep political dives, we’ve got your summer holiday covered.

 But this installment is not just a book chat.

We’re also tackling the rise of populism and the crises facing liberal democracies around the world. That’s the topic of “Defeating Trumpism,” a new book by former Belgian Prime Minister and European Parliament Member Guy Verhofstadt. The book is a self-diagnosis from one of Europe’s most passionate centrists about the failures of his movement. And his prescription? A new political paradigm he calls “Citizenism.”

We’re on a break for two weeks, so expect us to pop back up on your feed with the daily Brussels Playbook Podcast on Aug. 24 and the Week Ender podcast on Aug. 28.

Questions? Comments? Get in touch! You can message us or send a voice message to our WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.

Wer regiert die Welt – und was treibt sie an? In unserem regelmäßigen Machthaber-Spezial geht es um die mächtigsten und umstrittensten Politikerinnen und Politiker unserer Zeit. Wir zeigen, wie sie denken, entscheiden – und was das für uns bedeutet. Eine Politikerin oder Politiker, ein Blick hinter die Kulissen der Macht.

Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig.

Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. ⁠Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren.⁠

Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski:
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BRUXELLES — Lorsque les responsables de la sécurité français et allemands ont annoncé le mois dernier leur intention de mettre en place une “infrastructure numérique européenne souveraine”, les initiés des secteurs de la technologie et de la défense des deux côtés de l’Atlantique ont tout de suite compris ce qu’ils voulaient vraiment dire : “Adieu Palantir”.

Partout en Europe, on recherche activement des alternatives à cette société américaine spécialisée dans l’analyse de données, que de plus en plus de responsables gouvernementaux jugent trop impliquée dans certains des domaines les plus sensibles de l’action publique, allant des services de police locaux et du renseignement international à la défense nationale et aux systèmes de santé.

Mais il sera extrêmement difficile pour l’Europe, dans sa quête de souveraineté numérique, de se passer de Palentir, dont l’expertise en matière de données, largement inégalée, a pris une place essentielle dans les procédures quotidiennes.

“Soyons honnêtes, le produit de Palantir est très bon et addictif, c’est un peu comme le sucre dans le Coca”, reconnaît le député MoDem Philippe Latombe, défenseur français de la souveraineté numérique. “Palantir est capable de traiter d’énormes quantités de données avec une grande précision et, grâce à son expérience, l’entreprise a eu le temps d’améliorer ses algorithmes auprès de nombreux clients et de les adapter à de nombreux cas d’utilisation.”

Pourtant, la volonté de se libérer de Palantir gagne tout le continent : de Madrid, où le gouvernement de Pedro Sánchez a ordonné aux entreprises publiques d’exclure Palantir des futurs marchés publics, jusqu’aux services de renseignement intérieurs français (DGSI), qui ont préféré l’entreprise française ChapsVision à Palantir. Au Royaume-Uni, le prochain test pourrait avoir lieu en février 2027, lorsque le nouveau gouvernement travailliste d’Andy Burnham devra décider s’il met fin au contrat de 330 millions de livres sterling conclu avec Palantir pour la plateforme fédérée de données de la Sécurité sociale (NHS). 

La décision prise le mois dernier par les services de renseignement français et allemands d’opter pour ChapsVision a porté un double coup dur à la direction de Palantir. Le PDG du géant américain, Alex Karp, est toutefois resté sûr de lui après ce revirement soudain, affirmant qu’il ne s’inquiétait pas de la concurrence européenne. “Nous avons un exemple de ce qui ne fonctionne pas”, a-t-il ironisé la semaine dernière sur Fox Business. “Ça s’appelle l’Europe.”

Olivier Dellenbach, fondateur et PDG de ChapsVision, concède à POLITICO que son entreprise avait tiré profit de ce qu’il qualifie de “rejet viscéral de Palantir” en Europe.

Il refuse toutefois que ChapsVision soit réduit à une simple alternative anti-Palantir. La souveraineté numérique, affirme-t-il, restera une formule creuse si les gouvernements ne la transforment pas en politique industrielle. “Il faut plus de commandes publiques”, estime Olivier Dellenbach.

La Belgique, l’Allemagne, le Luxembourg, la Roumanie, les Pays-Bas et le Canada ont déjà manifesté leur intérêt pour le système d’IA “Artemis” de l’armée française, selon Patrick Moreau, l’un des architectes de cette solution développée par l’entreprise française d’aérospatiale et de défense Thales.

“Ils veulent tous pouvoir choisir une solution souveraine compatible avec les normes de l’Otan”, fait-il valoir. “Contrairement à la ‘boîte noire’ de Palantir.”

Mais pour l’instant, même les responsables qui souhaitent trouver des alternatives souveraines reconnaissent que le marché européen des solutions de remplacement reste fragmenté et que les entreprises européennes ne sont pas encore en mesure d’égaler l’envergure et les résultats de Palantir.

L’amiral Pierre Vandier, commandant suprême allié pour la transformation de l’Otan, a récemment déclaré à POLITICO que l’Alliance ne disposait d’aucune alternative viable à la technologie d’IA de Palantir destinée au champ de bataille.

Un autre responsable de l’Otan, qui a souhaité garder l’anonymat pour pouvoir s’exprimer en toute franchise, souligne que le système de Palantir disposait d’une capacité inégalée à passer au crible des montagnes d’images satellites afin d’aider à identifier une cible, de recommander l’arme à utiliser pour la frapper, d’indiquer la quantité de munitions nécessaire — et de passer automatiquement une commande pour réapprovisionner les stocks.

“A ma connaissance, il n’y a aujourd’hui aucun véritable concurrent de Palantir”, estimait l’amiral Vandier en mai.

Liberté ou démocratie ?

Cofondée par Karp et l’investisseur milliardaire Peter Thiel, Palantir s’est forgé une réputation au sein de l’appareil de sécurité nationale américain. Aujourd’hui, la société affiche une capitalisation boursière de 330 milliards de dollars.

Thiel est l’un des plus fervents partisans du président américain Donald Trump au sein de la Silicon Valley, tandis que la collaboration de l’entreprise avec l’ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) et l’armée israélienne a fait l’objet de critiques de la part d’Amnesty International et d’autres organisations pour des violations présumées des droits de l’Homme. A ce malaise suscité par les activités de Palantir, guidées par une idéologie, s’ajoutent les récentes révélations concernant la société secrète “Dialog” de Thiel, un club réservé à l’élite mondiale et accessible uniquement sur invitation, ainsi que le manifeste de Karp affirmant que Palantir représente le meilleur espoir pour l’Occident démocratique de garder une longueur d’avance sur ses rivaux autoritaires.

“Peter Thiel explique que la défense de la liberté ne passe pas nécessairement par la démocratie”, s’inquiète auprès de POLITICO le député LFI Aurélien Saintoul, auteur d’un rapport sur les dépendances militaires à l’étranger. “Il met clairement les moyens techniques au service de son projet politique, et nous parlons ici de technofascistes.”

Un porte-parole de Palantir, qui a souhaité rester anonyme, a qualifié ces accusations de “ridicules”, soulignant que le ministère russe des Affaires étrangères avait récemment tenu des propos similaires à l’égard de l’entreprise.

“Nous savons de quel côté nous sommes, et aux côtés de qui nous nous rangeons”, a déclaré le porte-parole, évoquant les efforts actuellement déployés pour soutenir l’armée ukrainienne. “Depuis notre création, la protection de la vie privée et des libertés civiles constitue le fondement de notre action au sein des institutions des secteurs public et privé. Les responsables politiques occidentaux devraient réfléchir sérieusement à l’identité du véritable ennemi et ne pas se laisser manipuler par le Kremlin.”

De nombreux détracteurs européens de l’entreprise affirment que la question de Palantir relève bien davantage de la souveraineté technologique que de l’idéologie politique. Retirer l’entreprise de certains des domaines les plus sensibles des structures de sécurité européennes ouvrirait la voie à une plus grande indépendance technologique.

Au contraire, si les gouvernements européens ne parviennent pas à se passer d’une entreprise fournissant des solutions logicielles, cela montrerait à quel point il est irréaliste d’espérer réduire leur dépendance vis-à-vis des géants technologiques américains qui fournissent des infrastructures cloud et du matériel informatique.

Il y a également cette réalité dérangeante : alors même que les dirigeants politiques appellent à prendre leurs distances avec Palantir, les plus grandes banques et les principaux gestionnaires d’actifs européens ont considérablement accru leurs investissements dans cette entreprise américaine au cours de l’année écoulée, alors que celle-ci se positionne pour tirer profit de la ruée vers l’or de l’IA, comme le rapporte le site d’investigation Follow the Money.

Un développement à la faveur des crises

La présence de Palantir en Europe s’est construite bien avant l’essor actuel de l’IA. L’une des caractéristiques marquantes de sa croissance est qu’elle n’a jamais manqué de tirer parti d’une crise pour démontrer sa valeur aux gouvernements qui en avaient besoin.

En France, par exemple, Palantir s’est implanté au lendemain des attentats terroristes de novembre 2015 à Paris, alors que les services de sécurité s’efforçaient de répondre à la vive indignation de l’opinion publique, qui leur reprochait d’avoir laissé une telle tragédie se produire. Les services de renseignement nationaux ont signé un contrat avec le géant de l’analyse de données en 2016.

Un scénario similaire s’est produit en Allemagne, où le premier déploiement majeur de l’américain a eu lieu à Francfort, où la police a acquis la solution Gotham de Palantir en 2017 et l’a déployée sous le nom de hessenDATA. Cet outil s’est avéré essentiel pour permettre aux agents de transformer une multitude d’informations en pistes permettant de résoudre des affaires criminelles.

L’Allemagne reste profondément divisée quant à l’opportunité d’utiliser les logiciels de Palantir. Le ministre de l’Intérieur, Alexander Dobrindt, a présenté un projet de loi susceptible d’ouvrir la voie à une utilisation plus large au niveau fédéral. Mais cette initiative s’est heurtée à l’opposition des sociaux-démocrates, partenaires de la coalition, ainsi que de hauts responsables de la sécurité.

Ce même schéma “de la crise au contrat” s’est reproduit au Royaume-Uni pendant la pandémie de Covid-19. La collaboration entre Palantir et le Service national de santé (NHS) a débuté lorsque l’entreprise a perçu une rémunération symbolique d’une livre sterling pour aider à agréger des données pendant la crise, selon Louis Mosley, responsable de Palantir au Royaume-Uni.

Europol a utilisé la plateforme Gotham de Palantir de 2016 à 2021 avant de finalement y renoncer. Pour un responsable de l’agence de police de l’UE, à qui l’anonymat a été accordé afin qu’il puisse s’exprimer librement sur le sujet, le problème avec Palantir est moins idéologique que pratique. Certes, la plateforme est coûteuse, soulève des questions de souveraineté et rend les clients dépendants de Palantir pour les mises à jour, a déclaré ce responsable. Mais la première question est de savoir si chaque agence a besoin de l’ensemble de l’écosystème Palantir.

“[Palantir] est vraiment efficace quand on dispose d’énormes quantités de données et qu’on souhaite tout relier”, ajoute notre source. “Mais ce n’est pas notre cas. Dans bien des cas, les solutions alternatives sont suffisamment performantes. Si nous l’utilisions, je ne suis pas sûr que notre efficacité s’en trouverait considérablement améliorée.”

Une partie de la stratégie de Palantir en Europe consiste à recruter d’anciens fonctionnaires issus des institutions qu’elle souhaite compter parmi ses clients. OpenDemocracy a révélé que Palantir avait embauché quatre anciens fonctionnaires du ministère britannique de la Défense avant de remporter un contrat de 240 millions de livres sterling avec cette même institution.

La campagne d’influence

Par ailleurs, Palantir cherche désormais à décrocher de nouveaux contrats sur le continent dans le domaine de la défense.

Le 1er juillet, le système “Maven Smart System” de Palantir — initialement utilisé par le Pentagone — est devenu pleinement opérationnel au sein de l’Otan, ce qui signifie qu’il a obtenu l’habilitation de sécurité nécessaire pour fonctionner sur le réseau classifié. Selon un communiqué de l’organisation transatlantique, cette plateforme relie les systèmes de commandement et de contrôle de l’ensemble de l’Alliance.

“Je pense qu’il s’agit d’une étape très importante pour la défense européenne”, s’est félicité Louis Mosley, directeur de Palantir au Royaume-Uni.

Mais l’emprise de Palantir sur l’Europe ne s’arrête pas aux portes des administrations ou des casernes. Elle s’étend également à certains des fleurons industriels du continent. Airbus a signé un accord avec Palantir en 2015, faisant de “Foundry” de Palantir l’épine dorsale de sa plateforme de données aéronautiques. Le constructeur automobile BMW, la société énergétique British Petroleum et l’éditeur Axel Springer — société mère de POLITICO — utilisent tous Foundry pour améliorer leur productivité.

A la recherche d’alternatives

Même si l’Europe parvient à affaiblir l’emprise de Palantir, le modèle de cette entreprise, qui s’appuie sur les derniers systèmes d’IA à grand modèle de langage, ne semble faire que se renforcer.

C’est le cas notamment du “forward deployed engineering” (FDE), service qui consiste à intégrer des équipes d’ingénieurs au sein même des sièges sociaux de ses clients afin de développer des systèmes d’IA en collaboration avec eux. Palantir a été pionnier dans ce modèle allant au-delà de la vente de logiciel. Il a été suivi récemment par Amazon Web Services qui a annoncé le 30 juin un investissement de 1 milliard de dollars dans une nouvelle structure de FDE. Quelques jours plus tard, Microsoft a annoncé mettre sur la table 2,5 milliards de dollars pour déployer 6 000 ingénieurs et spécialistes du secteur au sein des entreprises clientes.

La puissance de ses produits, combinée aux domaines sensibles dans lesquels ils sont utilisés, fait de Palantir le cas d’école par excellence en matière de souveraineté numérique en Europe. Si les gouvernements et les entreprises parviennent à remplacer une couche logicielle qui contribue à transformer les données en décisions, ils disposeront peut-être d’un modèle leur permettant de regagner une partie de leur souveraineté numérique. Dans le cas contraire, la prochaine génération d’outils d’IA développés par les géants technologiques américains pourrait s’avérer encore plus difficile à abandonner.

“Les institutions publiques européennes ne peuvent pas devenir dépendantes de logiciels développés par un petit cercle de milliardaires américains du secteur des technologies, dont la vision politique est obscure”, a déclaré Hannah Neumann, eurodéputée allemande écologiste, qui siège à la commission de la Défense. “Ce serait comme externaliser une partie de l’Etat démocratique à un service de renseignement privé qui ne rend de comptes ni aux électeurs ni au Parlement.”

David Pargamin a contribué à cet article depuis Paris.

Cet article a d’abord été publié par POLITICO en anglais, puis a été édité en français par Matthieu Verrier.

PARIS — Is France ready for a crisis that plunges it into darkness? The French government is planning to find out.

The government is looking to organize a tabletop simulation of a sudden, nationwide power outage in the second half of 2027, according to four people with direct knowledge of the exercise, who were granted anonymity to discuss plans that have not been publicly announced.

The exercise will involve the French electricity grid operators Enedis and RTE as well as several government departments and ministries and the French military administration. 

Its purpose will be to determine how the country would respond to a paralyzing electricity outage of the kind that hit Spain and Portugal in April 2025, or a major cyberattack targeting the power grid as Poland experienced last year — an act of sabotage Brussels has attributed to Russian intelligence services.

The simulation will test “the country’s ability to respond,” said one person familiar with preparations for the exercise, adding that it is intended to assess the time needed to restore power and the country’s ability to ensure the continuity of essential services.

The exercise was formally confirmed during an interministerial committee on national resilience on July 8. A detailed announcement should come before the end of the year.

The meeting notes outline other priorities, such as making sure the French state maintains access to goods considered “essential to ensuring the continuity of the state and the protection of the population.”

These include “emergency blankets, generators, medicines, telecommunications equipment, equipment for law enforcement, as well as rare and critical raw materials.”

Stress test

Crisis preparedness has turned into a political issue in France as record-breaking heat and wildfires are forcing the country to reckon with its ability to respond to emergencies. 

Last summer, the government updated the country’s National Resilience Strategy, a roadmap on how to “maintain the functions essential to collective life” in the face of war or natural disasters. 

Since the start of the summer, many French regions have faced unprecedented temperatures, with mercury levels setting multiple records in June. 

In the country’s southwest, out-of-control wildfires fueled by extreme heat and drought forced mass evacuations that affected more than 200,000 people.

In Paris, the mayor made a desperate plea to large-scale food retailers to mobilize ice stocks over fears that first responders would run out of much-needed cubes to cool down victims of heatstroke.

Opposition parties were quick to attack the government over what they described as a widespread lack of preparedness, forcing the executive to defend itself.

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu also announced that the government would submit a bill to parliament to improve emergency response systems.

“We want to refocus fire and rescue services on their core mission and adapt our organization to the crises that lie ahead,” said Lecornu Sunday in an interview with La Tribune Dimanche.

Welcome to Declassified, a weekly humor column.

For those of you not in Brussels, the EU capital is deserted at this time of year. It’s emptier than U.S. President Donald Trump’s loyalty card for the salad bar. It’s quieter than a Zoom call with only Boomers (because none of them could find the unmute button, geddit?). It’s lonelier than Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez at the next European Council.

This is because the EU point-blank refuses to give up on its summer vacation. There’s no crisis too big that it can’t be postponed a few weeks while everyone goes off to Tuscany, whether it’s Russia invading Georgia (2008), a devastating earthquake in Italy (2016), or the arrival of tens of thousands of unauthorized migrants in the Spanish exclave of Ceuta (a few days ago).

Older readers may remember when in 2017 — back when the EU was entirely in black and white — then-European Parliament President Antonio Tajani wrote to Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker to point out that the Parliament was taking its summer break, and that no work should be sent over before early September. Tajani’s note was dated July 13.

A note from our Irony Department: This column is off next week as I’m on vacation. Although, as Tuscany is out of my price range, I’ll be vacationing at the Schuman roundabout instead.

But if major events happening while you’re on a beach or halfway up an Alp is a bad look, the alternative — working all through the summer just in case something happens — isn’t much better.

In the hot summer of 2009, when Tajani — yes, him again — was merely the European transport commissioner, he drew the short straw of running the good ship Berlaymont while the other commissioners took a break. He then used the time to remind Europeans not to lose their luggage, describing the “phenomenon” of lost luggage as “very important” and “extremely worrying.” Tajani, of course, was a close ally of the late Italian leader Silvio Berlusconi, who had an awful lot of baggage (maybe even 10,000 suitcases full a day).

The summer before Tajani’s plea to keep a closer eye on your suitcases, the EU had launched a bloc-wide labeling scheme for sunscreen. Günter Verheugen, the commissioner for industry at the time, called the scheme an example of “responsible business behavior.” And Verheugen had perhaps more of a need for sunscreen than most, as in 2006, photographs had emerged of him relaxing on a nudist beach in Lithuania wearing nothing but a baseball cap — oh, and he was with his chief of staff.

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Can you do better? Email us at pdallison@politico.eu or get in touch on X @POLITICOEurope.

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Thanks for all the entries. Here’s the best one from our mailbag — there’s no prize except the gift of laughter, which I think we can all agree is far preferable to cash or booze.

“Volodymyr, when I sack a minister, they stay sacked.”

by Tom Morgan

BERLIN — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz doesn’t seem to think his job will be in danger when he gets back from his summer holiday.

“I’m assuming that things will have calmed down a bit by September,” he said last week, after internal dissent over his handling of a cabinet reshuffle boiled over.

He may be underestimating the pressure building within his own party.

Ahead of crucial regional elections in September — in which the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has a realistic chance of taking power in a German state for the first time — there is increasingly open discussion of a Kanzlertausch, or chancellor swap, in the fall.

Public criticism has mainly come from those ousted from government in the reshuffle. But behind the scenes, a growing number of politicians from Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) are discussing what would, by German standards, be a remarkable scenario: replacing the leader after little more than a year in the job.

Europe’s biggest economy has long been one of its most stable democracies, with no history of rattling through leaders like postwar Italy or post-Brexit Britain.

But the expected success of the AfD, in elections in which the CDU is expected to lose ground, is upending the country’s conventional political dynamics.

The theory behind a Kanzlertausch is that the conservatives will need to stem the fallout from the eastern elections and give themselves a boost by replacing a leader unable to shake his rock-bottom ratings.

But the stakes are high. The AfD — now the most popular party in national polls — would seek to capitalize on further coalition unrest. Replacing a chancellor years before the end of his term would mean venturing into largely uncharted political territory.

Only three sitting chancellors have been succeeded by a politician from the same political camp in postwar Germany: in 1963, when the 87-year-old Konrad Adenauer resigned to make way for Ludwig Erhard; in 1966, after Erhard’s coalition collapsed; and in 1974, when Social Democrat Willy Brandt stood down over an espionage scandal.

The current Kanzlertausch scenario — in which Hendrik Wüst, the premier of the western state of North Rhine-Westphalia, has emerged as Merz’s most likely successor — has been widely discussed in German media, including in the latest Der Spiegel cover story headlined “Palace Revolt.” 

Conservative politicians confirmed the internal debate to POLITICO, speaking on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the discussions.

The growing discontent, they said, reflected declining trust in the chancellor’s statesmanship and his expected inability to keep the party together if the AfD takes power in September.

Polls show that the AfD could win an outright majority in Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6, while it is poised to win in Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania and do well in Berlin on Sept. 20.

A further fear is that individual CDU politicians in eastern Germany might lend their support to an AfD-led state government after the elections — breaking Merz’s long-standing pledge never to allow the far right into government.

One called the debate “speculative” for now and said that the aftermath of the elections in eastern Germany would be “decisive” for the chancellor’s future.

They also stressed that, for now, no senior figure has publicly spoken out against Merz.

Yet the mounting unease is conspicuous in a party usually known for its discipline.

Keeping a cool head

If Merz were forced to go, that would seriously disrupt Germany’s consensus-based political system. The move would come less than two years after the previous center-left coalition fell apart and could trigger a snap election.

Kai Arzheimer, a political science professor at the University of Mainz, said the fragmentation of Germany’s party system — where centrist parties must forge sometimes awkward coalitions to keep increasingly popular fringe parties from power — has triggered a shift.

“Compared with the 1970s and 1980s, Germany has experienced relatively little political stability for quite some time now,” he said. “However, by the standards of what has become the norm in many other European countries, one could also say that Germany has simply arrived where others have been for a long time.”

Appeals for restraint have meanwhile begun to emerge from across the political spectrum.

“A Union that is tearing itself apart is of no use to anyone in the democratic center,” said Christiane Hoffmann, a former spokesperson for center-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in a lengthy post on X about the current debate.

“A little stability, please,” she demanded. “There’s just headless grumbling and bleating, with no one knowing where it’s all headed. Europe is on fire. Could a few people please keep a cool head?”

How a swap could unfold

The least disruptive route would be for Merz to step aside voluntarily, allowing his successor to be elected by majority vote.

If Merz refuses to go, his opponents would have to oust him through a constructive vote of no confidence, simultaneously electing his successor. Such an extraordinary parliamentary maneuver would risk ripping apart the governing coalition of Merz’s CDU, its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the Social Democrats.

For now, Merz continues to enjoy the backing of leading conservative figures. 

“I am firmly convinced that Friedrich Merz will remain chancellor,” Markus Söder, the powerful state premier of Bavaria and CSU leader, said in an interview with public broadcaster ARD over the weekend. 

“It would throw the conservatives into complete disarray,” Söder said of a potential swap.

“Moreover, it could even lead to new elections. And anyone who wants new elections now — in a situation like this, after such a lead-up — is only promoting one thing: bringing radicals to power. That is why my urgent advice is to focus on the work at hand and spend less time speculating behind the scenes.”

At national level, POLITICO’s Poll of Polls puts the AfD as the single most popular party with 28 percent support, with Merz’s conservatives on 21 percent.

At the same time, only 13 percent of Germans are satisfied with Merz’s performance, according to the latest benchmark ARD-DeutschlandTrend poll released last month. That is the lowest rating for a sitting chancellor in the survey’s nearly 30-year history.

Merz’s rock-bottom ratings reflect disappointment over his efforts to revive Germany’s ailing economy and public skepticism over far-reaching pension and health care reforms that will be difficult to implement and are expected to cost the average voter money. 

For now, Merz’s most viable political strategy appears to be appealing to politicians’ risk aversion in an effort to preserve what remains of Germany’s reputation for political stability.

“I can’t imagine many people within the conservative camp saying: ‘This is the solution, and we’re willing to take any risk in the hope that we might then do better in the polls,’” said Arzheimer, the political science professor. “That would be a completely crazy idea.”

President Donald Trump on Thursday announced tariffs on polysilicon and its related products, in his administration’s latest attempt to eliminate China’s choke points in the global supply chain for solar panels and semiconductors.

But Trump’s directive won’t take effect until Dec. 4 — well after November’s midterm elections and a planned September summit between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping — as the administration grapples with voters complaining of high prices and fragile trade negotiations with China.

“This will bring the supply chain here,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said of the order on Thursday alongside Trump at the White House. “We’ve got the industry here, it’s too small, and it’s going to explode.”

Because polysilicon is used in semiconductors and solar panels, it’s essential for military hardware and everyday electronics like cell phones and laptops, in addition to the world’s fastest-growing energy source.

The order imposes a 15 percent tariff on imported polysilicon and its derivatives, as well as minimum prices for imports of polysilicon, polysilicon ingots and wafers, solar cells and solar modules.

It also includes a clause intended to prevent companies from stockpiling those materials between now and December, authorizing Customs and Border Protection to restrict imports if it suspects an importer is attempting to dodge the higher duties.

Trump’s order is the result of a Commerce Department investigation launched last July into national security risks in the polysilicon supply chain, as part of a broader effort to shift supply chains away from China for multiple industries including wind turbines and robotics.

China has a near-monopoly on the production of polysilicon, according to S&P Global. But recent U.S. efforts to limit key areas of trade with China have already drawn a backlash from Beijing, which earlier this week implemented new controls on drone exports to the U.S.

The White House emphasized the order’s impact on domestic semiconductor production, a key focus as the U.S. looks to build out infrastructure related to artificial intelligence. Trump said the U.S. will “have a big percentage of the chip business by the time I leave office.”

But Thursday’s order may have a big impact on the solar industry, according to Jon Toomey, president of the pro-tariff Coalition for a Prosperous America organization.

“This proclamation delivers the most significant global trade protection action for the American polysilicon and solar industry in the modern era,” Toomey said in a statement. “For the first time, the United States is protecting the entire solar supply chain with a single action — and rewarding the manufacturers that build here — while taking a significant step to bolster the domestic semiconductor supply chain.”