BRUSSELS — European leaders came for the budget. They’re staying for everything else.

A two-day European Council starting Thursday was supposed to be all about the money. Instead, leaders of the 27 EU member countries are heading into one of their most crowded summits in years, with a succession of geopolitical crises threatening to hijack the EU’s carefully laid plans.

European Council President António Costa originally wanted the gathering to accelerate negotiations on the bloc’s next seven-year budget, hoping to seal a deal before elections in France, Italy and Poland in 2027 make an already difficult agreement even harder.

But the world had other plans. Soaring energy prices, tensions with China, Russia’s war in Ukraine (and U.S. President Donald Trump’s ambiguity over it), migration and turmoil in the Middle East have all elbowed their way onto the agenda.

The result is a two-day marathon covering virtually every major challenge facing the EU, from keeping European factories competitive to ensuring the world’s most important shipping lanes stay open.

For anyone trying to follow the action without spending 48 hours glued to Brussels, here’s your guide to what matters.

With the usual warning: EU leaders are notorious for letting discussions drag on or reshuffling the agenda — that’s what our liveblog is for.

Thursday at dawn: The pre-match warm-up

Before the summit even starts, Europe’s political families will gather at the crack of dawn.

The European People’s Party meets from 7:30 a.m. at the Sofitel Brussels Europe — the place to be if you can get in, given how many center-right leaders will be at the summit table.

The Socialists gather from 8:30 a.m. at PES headquarters, with Costa, Spain’s Pedro Sánchez and Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen expected.

Renew kicks off at 8 a.m. at the Palais d’Egmont, with French President Emmanuel Macron and top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas among those expected.

Even without leaders in the summit room, the far-right Patriots got a head start Wednesday, with Marine Le Pen delivering a scathing attack on the state of the EU.

Thursday morning: The energy blame game and China

Leaders kick off with discussions on Europe’s struggle for economic competitiveness, starting with energy — potentially the most politically explosive debate.

Governments want immediate relief from soaring energy prices as a result of the war in Iran, and will push the Commission to introduce new measures on top of the wide-ranging but somewhat toothless package it announced back in March.

Expect finger-pointing between capitals and Brussels over who should act, and for climate policies like the upcoming Emissions Trading System on heating and transport to come under fire.

Next comes China. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will brief leaders on efforts to tackle the EU’s enormous trade imbalance with Beijing, following trade chief Maroš Šefčovič’s negotiations with Chinese officials.

Leaders are expected to renew their demand for Brussels to “urgently” tool up with further trade defenses to prevent further deindustrialization of the bloc and to shield further industrial sectors from Chinese competition.

There’s also time for the familiar fight over EU red tape, with calls for Brussels to stop legislating.

Thursday afternoon: Costa’s budget gamble

This was supposed to be the main event. Leaders will discuss Ireland’s negotiating proposal for the EU’s 2028–2034 budget slashed by €159 billion from the Commission’s original proposal.

The positions are well known: The self-styled “modernists” — essentially the old frugals in disguise — want to contain costs, while countries benefiting from EU spending are determined to defend their allocations, under the less glamorous banner of “friends of cohesion.” Positions on new EU-wide taxes are similarly entrenched.

But the real story is timing.

Governments have watered down a commitment to secure an agreement by December, according to draft conclusions seen by POLITICO. Costa wants a deal before a series of high-stakes elections in 2027 complicate negotiations; capitals fear a deadline could weaken their bargaining power.

Most importantly, Costa is moving into the driving seat as budget talks enter their most politically sensitive stage. Watch for clues about a possible extraordinary summit in late November — and whether December remains a credible deadline or leaders quietly start preparing for negotiations to spill into 2027.

Thursday dinner: Making room for new members

Over dinner, leaders will tackle enlargement and the EU reforms needed to accommodate new members — after all, October’s summit has historically been devoted to the bloc’s hopefuls.

Montenegro is edging closer to completing accession negotiations, while progress elsewhere raises questions about whether the bloc is institutionally and financially ready to grow.

The Commission has outlined proposals to prepare the EU for enlargement, and leaders will discuss how internal reforms should accompany the accession process. Watch for a positive signal to Montenegro and commitments on reforming the bloc itself.

Friday morning: Ukraine’s wish list

The second day begins with Ukraine and an expected appearance by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Declarations of European solidarity are all but guaranteed. The more interesting question is what leaders are actually prepared to do.

Kyiv needs air defense systems, interceptors and financing as Russian attacks intensify. Leaders could discuss tougher action against Moscow’s shadow fleet and visa restrictions for Russians. And while EU financing for Ukraine has already been agreed for 2026, the country’s needs beyond that remain an increasingly pressing issue.

Could this mean reopening the debate on using frozen Russian assets to plug future funding gaps? That remains a question mark — although no immediate breakthrough is expected.

Friday pre-lunch: Defense and three dangerous waterways

Before breaking for lunch, leaders will turn to Russian hybrid attacks, maritime security and the Middle East.

In the Black Sea, recent attacks on civilian shipping threaten Ukraine’s crucial grain export route. Turkey has floated new protected shipping corridors, while countries including Romania and Bulgaria are pushing to give the issue more attention.

Will leaders back concrete measures or stop at condemnation? That’s the question.

Discussions then turn to the Middle East and two other critical shipping routes: the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. The fallout from the Iran–U.S. war, increased Iranian attacks around Hormuz and renewed Houthi threats in the Red Sea have disrupted global trade and energy flows.

The EU’s Aspides naval mission is short of vessels, and Kallas wants governments to contribute more. Watch whether leaders put ships behind their promises.

The broader Middle East discussion will also touch on Iran, Yemen, the West Bank and Lebanon.

Friday lunch: The migration showdown

Spain’s Pedro Sánchez, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen are worth watching as leaders discuss migration over lunch, following the crisis in Spain’s North African exclave of Ceuta.

Irregular arrivals have been declining, but disagreements remain over border crises, solidarity and tougher migration controls.

And with an election looming in Spain on Nov. 29, this could be Sánchez’s last tango — and a final chance to defend his government’s handling of the crisis while venting his frustration over the lack of European solidarity.

Watch whether the debate produces agreement or another political clash, as happened last time.

Bonus: Two pressers are better than one

With such a packed agenda, leaders won’t wait until the end of the summit for the usual joint press conference by von der Leyen and Costa. An additional one is planned for Thursday, after the budget debate.

On Thursday, watch Costa’s language on the budget deadline and whether von der Leyen offers any concrete measures on energy prices.

On Friday, look for promises of additional support for Ukraine, whether commitments on maritime security come with actual ships and resources — and commentary on how the migration showdown over lunch went.

Martina Sapio contributed to reporting.

Brussels officials are finalizing plans to tighten visa rules for hundreds of thousands of Russians who visit EU countries as tourists each year, in a move designed to strengthen the bloc’s defenses against hybrid attacks. 

EU officials told POLITICO the European Commission is planning to put forward proposals in the new year, after a group of countries — including Poland, Sweden and Estonia — pushed for tougher visa rules for Russians, including former fighters who served on the battlefields in Ukraine.

Last year, some 478,000 Schengen area tourist visas were issued to Russian citizens, many of which were multiple-entry visas, which enable holders to come and go repeatedly without needing to apply for documentation each time. 

That system is a security threat to Europe at a moment of heightened concern over Moscow-sponsored acts of sabotage, arson and other forms of hybrid warfare, Sweden’s Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer told POLITICO. 

“It’s obvious I think for everyone that we have vulnerabilities in our system that can be used by our enemies,” Strömmer said in an interview.

“As far as I understand things, the Commission is preparing a proposal that, according to what I have heard, should be launched in January next year. From a Swedish point of view, we would love to see it even earlier.” 

Strömmer welcomed the “progress” and “growing support” for a tougher visa regime.  

Other countries are planning to push the issue during Monday’s Foreign Affairs Council meeting — and also propose more restrictions on Russian diplomats in the EU. 

Estonia has proposed an outright ban on allowing ex-soldiers from Russia’s armed forces access to the EU. There are around 650,000 of these former combatants, according to Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, which would be banned “person by person.”  But a tighter EU-wide approach is vital for the bloc’s security, he told POLITICO. 

“I think a large number of these ex-combatants will come, supported by the Russian secret services, to Europe,” Tsahkna said. “And they will take over our organized crime and they will be heavily weaponized and supported by Russia to commit terror attacks or attacks against our societies. So this is very serious.” 

After an initial fall in the number of Russian nationals receiving travel visas to the EU, “the numbers are not going down anymore,” Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner told POLITICO. “We urge the member states there to do a better job and to give less visas … to Russian citizens,” he said. “Work is progressing.”

Brunner said a Commission proposal to restrict visas “early next year makes sense” alongside new visa rules. “You never know who these tourists actually are,” he said. “So that’s why we urge the member states to decrease the number.”

In June, a group of ministers from nine EU countries plus Iceland and Norway wrote to the Commission calling for “a more uniform and coordinated approach” to Russian visas across all member states.

“A restrictive visa policy towards Russian citizens is essential to safeguard the security and integrity of the Schengen area,” they said. “A divided approach risks undermining — and even counteracting — the pressure we seek to uphold against the Russian Federation.”

LONDON — The U.K. and Israel have stepped back from the diplomatic brink by securing a compromise to prevent the full closure of the British consulate in East Jerusalem.

Most diplomats will leave what will now be operating as a “U.K. Mission” in the occupied territory — but Israel has stopped short of closing it entirely ahead of Thursday’s deadline.

Both sides were presenting this as a good outcome Thursday, in a diplomatic tussle over the U.K.’s plans to impose sanctions on illegal settlements in the West Bank.

U.K. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband said the diplomats and their families were being “temporarily withdrawn” to secure their safety, but he said the mission will remain independent, operational and continue to work with the Palestinian people.

“We will work in the coming months to build back up our presence, and we will not take reciprocal action while such discussions are underway and credible,” he continued, in a statement released as he was visiting Ukraine.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar set out a list of diplomatic actions taken against Britain, adding: “We established a clear principle: It is not possible to act against Israel without Israel taking appropriate measures in response.”

Sa’ar said the consulate would be “closing its operations today” and that the “sign of the British Consulate in Jerusalem has been removed.” Twenty British diplomats, including the consul general, will be leaving East Jerusalem.

But the British flag was still flying on Thursday afternoon. Seven diplomats remain.

The dispute over the consulate has been the latest marker of declining relations between Israel and the U.K. under its Labour government. Israel threatened to close the consulate within 30 days of Sept. 8, in retaliation against Andy Burnham’s government announcing a ban on trade with illegal settlements in the West Bank.

A person familiar with Israeli government thinking, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter, told POLITICO the mission is “basically an empty shell” that cannot issue visas, renew passports or liaise with the Palestinian Authority. Britain does not tend to issue visas or passports in consulates. 

“The seven diplomats there, their work is basically to maintain the building and hold the Union Jack in place,” they said.

A British official presented the deal as a “good outcome” nonetheless. After three weeks of hard-fought negotiations, a feared spiral of tit-for-tat expulsions has been avoided.

The U.K. has told Israel it is keeping the possibility of retaliation open, however, after Israel threatened to expel British diplomats from Israel. The Israeli government had been demanding that the U.K. rolls back its pending package of sanctions on West Bank settlements, but British ministers are holding firm.

Miliband maintained Thursday that Britain does not accept Israel has a “legal right” to shutter the site that has been there for nearly 200 years, because East Jerusalem is deemed “occupied territory.”

The hope in the U.K. Foreign Office is that maintaining a presence will make it easier to build back up after elections in Israel on Oct. 27.

U.K. National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell traveled to Jerusalem last week as part of efforts to persuade the Israeli government not to shut the consulate, but a breakthrough wasn’t reached until Wednesday night.

This developing story is being updated.

The Trump administration pressured diplomatic officials from the EU, Canada and Lithuania to pull out of an international conference on disinformation after organizers announced panels warning of the threat posed by American government officials and the country’s influence broadly, according to excerpts of a State Department cable seen by POLITICO.

The conference, titled #Disinfo2026, included sessions that described the U.S. as a “foreign information manipulation and interference” actor, or “FIMI,” which bothered the Trump administration, according to the cable. The conference is being held Wednesday and Thursday in Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital.

The State Department asked American embassies in several European countries and the EU to express Washington’s concerns and “assess” whether the governments involved in the conference agree with the U.S. being characterized as a FIMI actor, according to the cable.

FIMI is an EU term used to describe activities that try to distort public information, such as spreading disinformation online, usually by foreign actors such as Russia. The conference conflates the U.S. with “foreign adversaries like Russia and China,” which is a “false equivalence” that “obscures the scale and nature of Russian and Chinese interference in our democracies,” the cable states.

The demarche request appears to be an unusual administration effort to use allied government pressure to silence criticism from European citizens and Americans abroad (three U.S. citizens appeared on one of the panels that prompted the cable). It also marks an acceleration of the Trump administration’s years-long pressure campaign on the continent, which includes U.S. criticism of perceived EU censorship.

The recipients of the cable included U.S. embassies in France, Norway, Romania and Poland. The embassies each were told to tell their hosts — verbally, not in writing — that the U.S. was unhappy with the panels on American disinformation, according to the cable and a U.S. official, who, like others, was granted anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the situation.

One of those panels, titled “USA as a FIMI threat: acknowledge, adapt, push back” featured two American researchers and a former CIA official and looked at how the U.S. had become a disinformation threat to Europe. Another, titled “Under attack: How the counter-disinformation community is dealing with US government pressure,” asked legal experts to weigh in on the threat of U.S. government travel bans against European figures.

The State Department asked some of those countries — but not all — to reconsider participating in the event, said the U.S. official familiar with the cable, which came from the secretary of State’s office.

Officials from Norway, Romania and Poland still appear on the conference agenda. Spokespeople for the ministries of foreign affairs in Norway, Romania and Poland did not respond to a request for comment.

U.S. officials also contacted France’s Foreign Ministry, but it did not withdraw from the conference.

The Trump administration and its allies have repeatedly tried to pressure EU allies to align with Washington’s standards of free speech, which some in Europe consider to be too broadly defined. These efforts have included public criticism, closed-door lobbying against EU laws and visa restrictions for Europeans.

Domestically, the administration has dismantled U.S. government organizations that fight disinformation, including at the State Department and the Department of Homeland Security.

Republicans have also taken issue with some European laws that force social media platforms to be more active in combating false information online, such as laws requiring age verification for potentially harmful content, which some have said amount to censorship.

As of Monday, Canada and Lithuania asked organizers to remove their ministry logos from conference materials, according to a conference participant, and the European External Action Service followed on Tuesday. European news site Rapporteur first reported on the removal of the foreign ministry logos.

“To me, I see a very strange reaction from the State Department to a conference of researchers using our First Amendment free speech rights to talk about how to stop lying and manipulation that undermines democracy and hurts our families and hurts our children,” said Adam Fivenson, who works for the Center for Security, Innovation and New Technology at American University and was on one of the panels the Trump administration took issue with. This panel still proceeded as scheduled.

The cable also notes that top officials in the State Department’s global public diplomacy section reached out directly to Canadian officials to express frustrations with Ottawa’s participation in the conference. This part of the State Department, led by Sarah Rogers, handles the public-facing aspects of diplomacy that are aimed at building support for U.S. goals among foreign populations.

Asked for comment, the State Department said in a statement: “While we are unable to comment on the details of diplomatic conversations, it should not be a surprise that countries would disaffiliate from this conference upon learning that it labeled the U.S. a ‘FIMI threat.’ Labeling the United States a ‘FIMI threat’ — a term normally reserved for describing influence operations of adversaries — undermines shared goals and should alarm those involved.”

After speaking with U.S. officials, Canada and Lithuania pulled their support from the conference, meaning they don’t appear on panels or in conference materials. The EU’s External Action Service, its diplomatic arm, was also removed from official programming.

Images reviewed by POLITICO show conference banners with the logos of all Canadian, Lithuanian, and EU diplomatic services covered. France remains the sole “main supporter.”

Spokespeople for the EEAS and Lithuania’s Foreign Ministry both said they withdrew because some of the conference programming didn’t align with their official positions, though they did not specify what those positions are.

The cable draws a clearer line between U.S. engagement with Lithuania and Canada and their decision to pull public support for the conference. After speaking to the local U.S. embassy, “Lithuania’s Foreign Minister [Kęstutis] Budrys stated the U.S.-focused sessions did not represent the views of the Lithuanian government and committed that no one from Lithuania MFA would participate,” the cable reads.