EU leaders locked horns over everything from climate rules to migration policy and Ukraine’s long-term financial needs during two days of tense discussions in Brussels.

But despite calls for urgent action, the main takeaway from Thursday and Friday’s European Council summit is that key decisions have been delayed to a later date.

With elections looming in Spain and France, and as leaders’ positions seem more entrenched than ever, nothing of substance was put down in ink. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who made the trip to Belgium, did not receive much more than warm embraces and kind words.

Speaking to journalists during a packed news conference, Ukraine’s wartime leader urged his European counterparts to come up with a financial plan or risk facing an unprecedented migration crisis with “20 million Ukrainians” fleeing to Europe.

“The war will cost €155 billion next year. And we need at least €70 billion more from you — for defense, for weapons, and for our resilience,” Zelenskyy said. “This is a realistic amount. And I ask you to find this support. It will help us hold Russia back.” 

But two diplomats told POLITICO that capitals would continue exploring a range of options to meet Kyiv’s needs, including a potential further loan from the EU. 

A debate over whether to mobilize some €300 billion in Russian frozen assets to help Ukraine is a case in point. Nearly a year after EU leaders rejected using the assets amid objections from Belgium, France and Italy, several countries have asked for the option to be revisited, and top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas had said frozen assets would be on the table when leaders met in Brussels.

But after hours of talks about Ukraine, “nothing has changed,” said Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. “The money is not lost but in my belief nothing has happened since we had the discussion last time.”

“In the short term, money to support Ukraine must come from other sources than the frozen assets,” he concluded.

Two EU diplomats told POLITICO that the European Commission and EU capitals were working on other financing options, including seeking funds from Ukraine’s non-EU allies, mobilizing as yet untapped EU funds and drawing up another joint EU loan to complement the €90 billion loan they agreed on last year. 

The leaders “didn’t spend a lot of time” trying to come up with a plan to fund Ukraine in 2027, after Zelenskyy said his country would face a €70 billion budget hole next year, European Council President António Costa said. “We agreed immediately that we need to address the additional needs of financing Ukraine in 2027 and asked Commission to come up with concrete proposal.”

Yet leaders declined to endorse any of those options during news conferences at the end of the summit.

Money talks drag on

The gathering had also been billed as a chance for leaders to break a months-old deadlock over the size and shape of the EU’s nearly €2 trillion long-term budget.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who leaves office next year ahead of a presidential election in April and June, warned leaders that he would no longer have a political mandate to ink a deal if no deal was concluded by the end of this year.

But despite hours of talks on Thursday, neither the frugal camp led by Germany — which advocates a smaller budget — nor the “Friends of Cohesion” group calling for a larger envelope had made any substantial step toward each other.

“I think [a decision] is possible by the end of the year,” Macron told journalists at the summit’s conclusion, adding that failure to strike a deal this year would not “be a good method from a democratic standpoint.”

Instead, leaders spent much of the two-day summit trying to gain a tactical upper hand over rivals on EU climate rules and migration policy.

Trench warfare

A push led Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to water down an emissions trading scheme known as ETS2 hijacked discussions for hours on Thursday. But despite wider support for Tusk’s position than at previous summits, it was easily defeated by countries that support the current scheme.

On migration, Denmark, Italy and Poland led a determined effort to harden the EU’s position, proposing tweaks to the summit’s conclusions that would have explicitly linked irregular migration to crime rates and branded the phenomenon a threat to the cohesion of European societies.

The proposal, which ultimately won support from a group of around 10 countries including Hungary, according to two EU diplomats, also indirectly took aim at Spain, where Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s decision to regularize some 1 million irregular migrants has sparked clashes with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen. 

Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that the Commission would put forward an emergency response framework before the end of the year to allow EU countries to respond to a sudden mass movement, such as the one that caused chaos in the Spanish exclave of Ceuta over the summer.

But the effort led by Meloni and Frederiksen ended in defeat, with the proposed paragraphs deleted from the summit’s final conclusions, which only contained a truncated version.

Macron criticized the discussions on migration, saying they had been excessively “politicized.”

“It was a bad debate because it has been highly politicized and it has been a major source of division around the table,” the French president said.

BRUSSELS — The leaders of Denmark, Italy and Poland are pushing the European Union to significantly harden its stance on irregular migration, according to three EU diplomats and draft language seen by POLITICO.

Migration “represents a concern for many European citizens and poses a challenge for the cohesion of our societies … and [is] negatively affecting crime rates,” reads a draft of summit conclusions circulated ahead of a lunchtime discussion on the topic at a leaders’ summit in Brussels, backed by Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen and Poland’s Donald Tusk.

“The European Council further underlined the importance of ensuring full control of irregular arrivals, including by avoiding measures that could create incentives for illegal migration,” reads the draft seen by POLITICO.

The bloc’s 27 leaders were due to discuss migration during a special session on Thursday requested by Meloni and Frederiksen following a tense back-and-forth with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in June.

Tensions have risen further after Spain’s Ceuta exclave was overwhelmed by migrants during the summer and as far-right parties have made gains around the bloc.

The draft also “calls the Commission to explore [a] possible consultation mechanism to encourage coordination on national measures potentially affecting other Member States while respecting national competencies.”

While the last phrase does not name any one country, Sánchez has clashed with Meloni over his handling of the Ceuta migration crisis as well as Spanish measures to regularize around 1 million migrants.

However, language discussing the impact of migration on social housing was removed from the draft over concerns that it could be perceived as provocative toward Spain.

One of the diplomats — who, like the others, was granted anonymity to discuss confidential information — said the updated draft was unlikely to win unanimous support from all the leaders, but had been proposed to bring the language closer in line with political sentiment and spark debate.

BRUSSELS ― Political pressure is leaving Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz poorly placed to break the deadlock over the EU’s next seven-year budget.

As EU leaders gather for a two-day summit in Brussels from Thursday, the heads of the bloc’s two largest countries hold the keys to breaking the impasse between capitals that has persisted for months, as a Germany-led group advocating a smaller budget clashes with those like France which are resisting reductions.

“Delays and persisting divisions in the Council [representing EU governments] are worrying,” said Siegfried Mureșan, co-leading the European Parliament’s work on the MFF, the multiannual financial framework. “The EU budget can only be built through compromise … The faster we adopt the budget, the faster we can implement it and become more competitive, safer, help farmers and researchers and protect our borders and cyberspace.”

Sealing agreement on the EU’s long-term central budget, worth approximately €2 trillion, is the biggest challenge over the next few months facing leaders, all of whom must sign up to the final numbers. While it isn’t just up to Macron and Merz, getting the chiefs of the bloc’s two most powerful countries to overcome their differences would be a massive step in making all the pieces of the jigsaw slot into place.

But with Macron soon to leave office and Merz under severe pressure domestically, officials and diplomats in Brussels, Paris, and Berlin are playing down hopes of a Franco-German breakthrough this week.

“If the French and German leaders come hand in hand, I think that could change the game,” an EU diplomat, granted anonymity to speak frankly, said. “You need [Italian Prime Minister Giorgia] Meloni and [Polish Prime Minister Donald] Tusk, but it starts with Merz and Macron.”

While Merz and Macron may talk bilaterally during the summit, according to an Elysée official, there were no firm plans for a more formal sit-down, two EU diplomats said, adding they were expecting them to use the two-day meeting to hash out positions.

Domestic political weakness makes both leaders less likely to yield ground, three EU diplomats said.

Backfiring

For the French president, who leaves office next year, the fear is that making big concessions — like accepting cuts demanded by Berlin — could be weaponized by presidential candidates vying to replace him.

“Macron should not appear too conciliatory” in budget talks, said an ally of the French president. “It would backfire in the presidential campaign.”

Indeed, Macron may be wary of striking a deal that could lead to attacks from far-right leader Marine Le Pen or far-left rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon, both of whom argue that France receives too little value for its contributions to the EU pot.

During a press conference in Brussels on Wednesday evening, Le Pen accused negotiators of speeding up talks as “an attempt to stifle future democratic choices before they even take place” — effectively warning Macron against locking in an agreement before France’s April presidential election and votes in other major EU countries, such as Spain, which goes to the polls next month, and Italy, which is due to hold a poll next year.

“All this is not serious,” Le Pen told reporters on the 26th floor of The Hotel in Brussels.

It’s complicated

Merz faces similar political pressures.

Following humiliating state election defeats to the far-right Alternative for Germany party, the Chancellor is wary of concessions that could be framed as sending more taxpayer money to Brussels. Berlin prefers no deal at all to one that increases the overall budget, Merz said.

But Paris and Berlin’s positions may not be as far apart as public statements suggest.

“It’s complicated because France and Germany both need to step outside of their comfort zone,” said the Macron ally. “But it will end with a deal between France and Germany,”

France’s Europe minister Benjamin Haddad told reporters on Tuesday that discussions should focus on raising money via taxes, or “own resources” as they’re known in the EU —such as online gambling levies—rather than “massive cuts.”

However, Paris also wants to “stabilize national contributions” ― in other words, keep its own payments level.

Berlin was “open to examine new own resources, but we are more skeptical than the French that it will generate enough money,” a German official said.

France is betting that when push comes to shove, Merz will give in to pressure from other countries — and German captains of industry — to abandon his demands for far-reaching cuts.

“I see that there is also a real debate in Germany as well on the fact of having a position that would only be focused on cuts to the detriment of future policies,” an Elysée official said Wednesday. This week, Germany’s industrial lobby BDI and top industry groups urged their government to defend a more ambitious EU budget.

Macron and Merz showed unity earlier this month by jointly urging the European Commission to toughen its stance on China. But they still struggle to agree on another major deal—first reported by POLITICO in July—where Berlin accepts stronger “Made in Europe” rules in exchange for France backing relaxed car emission targets and the 2035 combustion engine ban.

EU Industry chief Stéphane Séjourné told POLITICO on Tuesday he supported the deal to finalize both files. Macron recently called the agreement “imminent,” suggesting progress depended on German coalition talks. But their failure to present an agreement at this week’s Paris car show confirms Paris and Berlin still disagree on terms, with the Elysée confirming negotiations remain ongoing.

WARSAW — Ukraine has more leverage than a year ago — and European leaders are warning Donald Trump not to squander it by pressuring Kyiv to ease up on Russia.

“In less than two years we went from the stage of no cards to the stage of don’t play your cards,” Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha told an audience at the Warsaw Security Conference. “That’s a true achievement.”

Last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was ambushed in the Oval Office by Trump, who ridiculed him for having “no cards” to play against Russia.

Trump’s recent demand that Zelenskyy “better damn well stop” Ukraine’s refinery attacks, and his call for Ukraine to install a new leader, amount to a recognition that Kyiv does indeed have significant leverage in the fight.

Kyiv’s refinery campaign is helping create a growing fuel shortage across Russia and is also harming the Kremlin’s ability to finance the war. But European leaders fear that Trump’s desperation to lower fuel prices ahead of next month’s U.S. midterm elections by pressuring Kyiv to stop its attacks could weaken Ukraine’s hand without persuading Russia to end the war.

Sybiha’s comments drew loud applause at the Warsaw conference and underscored growing tensions among Kyiv, Washington and Ukraine’s European allies after Trump said the U.S. had agreed with Vladimir Putin to buy Russian diesel.

The dispute between Washington and Kyiv overshadowed a Warsaw event that is normally strongly pro-American, given Poland’s status as a key U.S. ally.

“Ministers and heads of state won’t say so outright what they think about the Americans, but they certainly think a lot of things — the negotiations with Putin are yet another stab in the back for the Ukrainians,” said a French lawmaker, speaking on condition of being granted anonymity.

“You end the war by persuading the aggressor to limit his level of ambition, not by asking the victim to capitulate,” said Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski.

His German counterpart Johann Wadephul underlined that Berlin is pushing the Trump administration to fully impose energy sanctions approved by the U.S. Congress.

On Sep. 18, Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Russia and Iran Sanctions Act of 2026, codifying existing US sanctions against Russia and expanding the scope for applying secondary sanctions, tariffs and restrictions, including against the energy sector.

“This is not the time to lower the sanctions regime, but to strengthen it,” Wadephul said.

U.K. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband echoed that call, saying Trump should exert pressure on Russia to agree to an energy ceasefire under which both warring nations would stop hitting each other’s oil, gas, electricity and other assets.

Russia has so far refused to take such a step.

“Let us take seriously this issue of the energy ceasefire that President Trump has talked about, not simply a refinery ceasefire but a broad energy ceasefire, because in the last week alone we’ve seen 200 Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure,” Miliband said.

Trump pressures Ukraine

The U.S. president said on Monday that Putin is keener to end the fighting than Zelenskyy — despite the Kremlin not agreeing to any ceasefire.

“I think actually Putin wants to make a deal more than Zelenskyy,” Trump said.

Since Trump announced an energy ceasefire — blindsiding both Kyiv and Moscow — Ukraine has paused bombing Russian refineries even as Russian attacks continue.

While Trump wants the attacks to stop, Ukraine’s European allies are keen to cripple Russia’s war effort.

“Ukraine is attacking refineries, which is having an effect, and data centers, which is also having an effect,” Sikorski said. He also called on Poland’s MAGA-aligned President Karol Nawrocki to use his influence with Trump “to explain to him that Putin is the aggressor and Zelenskyy is the victim of aggression.”

Wadephul added that he had talked to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during the U.N. General Assembly in New York last month, and saw no interest from him in ending the war.

“A lot of people in Europe and especially in Germany were asking us and me, ‘Why don’t you talk to the Russians?’ So now I had that conversation, and you saw the result,” he said. “It’s a very dire result. And it shows that Russia right now is not ready for ceasefire.”

During the same Warsaw event, Sybiha was forced to deny rumors that Washington may have stopped sharing intelligence with Kyiv in retaliation for its campaign of deep strikes against Russian oil refineries.

“You are asking me if we are getting intelligence data from the American side. Yes, we continue this cooperation,” he said. 

Concerns about a potential cut-off in U.S. intelligence grew on Tuesday after Ukraine’s threat detection system failed to detect ballistic missiles that battered Kyiv overnight. Sybiha said the failure was due to a “special type of weaponry which was used by the Russian side.”

Zelenskyy also underlined the need for continued intelligence sharing. “There was also a rather treacherous ballistic missile strike on Kyiv — five missiles that hit civilian infrastructure. Unfortunately, there was no warning from our partners regarding this strike. Intelligence on Russian ballistic missile launches helps save lives.”

Sybiha stressed that Kyiv needs to continue strengthening its ability to fend off Russia’s constant air attacks while Ukraine’s troops push back against Russian forces on the front lines.

“The future of Europe and the global security architecture is now being decided in Ukraine,” he said.

Chris Lunday and Laura Kayali contributed to this report.

WARSAW — European leaders are preparing to demand tougher sanctions on Russia at a summit on Thursday, putting them at odds with Donald Trump just days after the U.S. president struck a deal with Vladimir Putin to ease restrictions on Russian diesel exports.

The leaders plan to call for further sanctions and measures targeting Moscow’s oil revenues at the European Council, according to a recent draft joint statement obtained by POLITICO, as EU governments reject Trump’s claim to have secured an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

The disagreement exposes a widening divide over how to bring Moscow to the negotiating table. While Trump is seeking to bring down U.S. fuel prices by allowing more Russian diesel onto global markets, European leaders argue that restricting the Kremlin’s energy revenues remains essential to forcing Putin to end the war.

“Russia is not interested in deescalation, ceasing fire or peace,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told a security conference in Warsaw on Monday. “That is why I will go to Brussels to ask my partners to consider seriously increasing sanctions against Russia.”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also called for further restrictions, pointing to Moscow’s continued attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure despite Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire.

“Russia will only negotiate in good faith under pressure,” Merz said Monday. “Following Moscow’s reckless attacks on Ukraine’s civilian energy supply, we must even tighten [sanctions] further.”

The push comes after EU foreign ministers on Monday approved the bloc’s largest-ever addition to its Russia sanctions list, targeting more than 1,600 individuals and entities. The European Commission is also preparing a 23rd package of sectoral sanctions, which Kyiv expects to be circulated to EU governments by the end of the year, according to a senior Ukrainian official who was, like others in this article, granted anonymity to speak frankly on the sensitive negotiations.

Other European countries are taking a similar position. Britain and Norway have also pledged to increase pressure on Moscow.

“It’s important to sanction Russia not to finance the war,” Norwegian Defense Minister Tore O. Sandvik told POLITICO, calling for loopholes in existing restrictions to be closed.

Trump’s election calculation

Behind closed doors, many European diplomats see Trump’s abrupt shift toward easing restrictions on Russian energy as driven primarily by domestic political concerns ahead of next month’s U.S. midterm elections.

That is the “broadly held view” among EU officials, according to one senior official.

The president is under mounting pressure over fuel prices, which have surged since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Having promised during his 2024 campaign to bring gasoline prices below $2 a gallon, Trump now faces an electorate paying more than twice that amount, with Republicans at risk of losing control of Congress.

His agreement with Putin is intended to release an additional 4.8 million tons of Russian diesel onto global markets over the coming months, easing pressure on fuel supplies and prices.

But European and Ukrainian officials question whether the additional supply will make a meaningful difference, saying that the total volume promised amounts to only around 10 days of U.S. demand. They feel the deal risks undermining efforts to deprive Moscow of the revenues funding its invasion.

“The reality” is that the additional fuel will have a “minimal” impact on U.S. prices, the senior EU official said.

“This is about the midterms,” a second EU official said. “He said he would bring down prices, but then he decided to go to war with Iran.”

The officials also question whether Putin intends to honor Trump’s purported energy ceasefire. Russia has continued striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure since the announcement, while Kyiv says it was not consulted on the arrangement.

For now, most European officials are reluctant to criticize Trump publicly, despite any doubts about the agreement. The EU and Ukraine should maintain their position over the coming weeks, when the administration’s longer-term intentions toward Kyiv may become clearer, one diplomat said, adding that Trump might even change course again if Putin fails to deliver the promised diesel.

Pressure on Washington

The dispute has also revived European calls for Washington to enforce its own sanctions against Moscow.

Tusk urged Europe and the United States to act together to show Russia they were prepared to impose tougher measures, while EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called on Washington to align its approach with Brussels.

Kallas pointed to sweeping Russia sanctions legislation championed by the late Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, which Trump signed into law last month but has yet to fully implement.

The legislation gives Washington additional tools to target Russia’s energy trade and those helping sustain its war effort. European officials want the administration to use them rather than loosen restrictions on Russian exports.

Some Republicans are also calling for tougher action.

“I think we need to be implementing the Russia sanctions bill,” Republican Representative Dan Crenshaw told the Warsaw conference.

The disagreement is raising wider questions in Europe about its dependence on Washington, particularly amid reports that U.S. officials have threatened to restrict Ukraine’s access to American weapons unless Kyiv stops attacking Russian oil refineries.

There is currently “no sign” Washington is following through on those threats, a NATO official told POLITICO, arguing that restricting sales would also hurt American weapons manufacturers.

“PURL is a good deal for the Americans,” the official said, referring to the NATO initiative under which European allies finance purchases of U.S. weapons for Ukraine.

European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, without directly addressing the reports, said Europe needed to take “primary responsibility” for its own defense more urgently as Washington reduces its military presence on the Continent.

The immediate test, however, comes on Thursday, when EU leaders will seek to maintain pressure on Moscow even as their most powerful ally moves in the opposite direction.

Victor Jack and Sebastian Starcevic contributed reporting from Brussels, James Angelos contributed reporting from Berlin, Esther Webber contributed reporting from London.

EU capitals must be able to intervene to stop new legislation from Brussels if they say it’s too burdensome for governments and businesses, the leaders of Germany, Italy and Belgium wrote on Monday.

In a letter addressed to European Council President António Costa and seen by POLITICO, the three leaders said the bloc needs an “emergency brake” mechanism to help boost its flagging economic competitiveness.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Wever also called to “significantly accelerate planning and approval procedures,” suspend “certain regulatory areas for a specified period” under a new “priority rule.”

“We call for further ambitious simplification packages to decisively advance the cutting of red tape in the European Union,” they wrote, adding that the Commission must ease the burden “first and foremost” on small and medium-sized businesses.

“More broadly,” the letter reads, “our common objective should be to prevent unnecessary regulatory burdens and related costs from causing permanent losses of European industrial capacity and further weakening investment and competitiveness.”

Coming days before an EU leaders’ meeting, the call echoes demands first stated in March after a summit focused on European competitiveness, and it comes amid worsening signs for the bloc’s industrial sector.

Leaders will debate the EU’s long-term budget, energy prices, and support for Ukraine when they gather in Brussels on Thursday for a two-day European Council summit.

Germany has rejected Ireland’s proposal for the EU’s next seven-year budget, despite €159 billion in cuts. And it’s not alone: Governments are divided over where the cuts should fall, while the European Parliament is threatening to block the deal.

Zoya Sheftalovich and Nick Vinocur unpack the backlash and what it means for this week’s EU leaders’ summit.

Plus, Zoya interviews Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner about Europe’s efforts to curb irregular migration and plans to tighten restrictions on Russian visitors and former soldiers.

And why the influencers expected at this week’s EU summit won’t be showing up after all.

Questions? Comments? Let us know on our WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.

EU capitals are quietly preparing for how the bloc should respond to a major hybrid attack that leaves several citizens dead — an outcome that looks increasingly likely, according to five EU diplomats and officials.

But the efforts to prepare are exposing splits on how much of a role the EU should play on security matters, and whether the bloc’s efforts are redundant with NATO.

The talks about a nightmare attack scenario have taken place in recent weeks among EU ambassadors from all 27 countries gathering in “restricted format,” meaning without phones or assistants. Discussions have ramped up since the discovery of an explosives-laden drone at Leipzig airport in August, said the diplomats and officials, who were granted anonymity to discuss the confidential exchanges.

While the EU has discussed such scenarios for years — unveiling a “hybrid toolbox” geared at coordinating responses to cyberattacks, election interference, and sabotage — the latest talks zeroed in on the risk of more serious attacks that cause large-scale casualties. Two diplomats said a meeting among EU ambassadors last Wednesday focused specifically on such examples.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU says Moscow has intensified a campaign of cyberattacks, sabotage and other covert operations across the bloc.

“Europe’s democracies are facing a growing number of threats,” European justice Commissioner Michael McGrath told POLITICO. “We are strengthening our capacity to anticipate and detect threats, improve early warning and ensure that Europe can respond quickly and collectively when our democratic resilience is tested.”

The talks among EU diplomats and ministers have focused on deploying emergency response teams, freeing up pockets of EU money to help the affected state, and how EU institution leaders should communicate, one EU official said.

“We have to be prepared for something serious,” a senior EU diplomat said. “Unfortunately, Leipzig showed us that a very serious incident, something that causes multiple casualties, is not out of the question.”

A second EU official added: “Given the scope and scale of Russia’s action there are bound to be casualties sooner than later. It’s sheer luck there haven’t been any yet.”

‘Very confusing’

The bloc is reeling from near-daily reports of so-called hybrid attacks — a label used by the EU and NATO to describe subversive activity that falls below the threshold of a direct act of war. On Tuesday, several sailors were declared missing after their ship was sunk by drones in the Black Sea, according to Bulgarian officials.

This followed the Leipzig airport incident, a suspicious fire at a Polish ground-link station handling Starlink communications, and a plot to plant incendiary devices in commercial transport hubs around the EU and U.K., alongside regular airspace violations.

“It is quite obvious that when Russia is using more and more lethal tools to test our preparedness and willingness to take counter measures, at some point there will be casualties,” said Teija Tiilikainen, director of the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats. “At some point, intentionally or unintentionally, this is what happens.”

If several EU or NATO-member citizens are killed in what appears to be an attack, the pressure to act will be overwhelming on both institutions. “We’re very afraid that at some point an allied life” will be taken, said one NATO diplomat, which will make the “pressure very high” to act.

Yet EU-level discussions are prompting criticism from some capitals that the EU is overstepping its security role and potentially duplicating NATO’s core functions, the transatlantic alliance that has underpinned European security for 80 years.

“It risks being very confusing for decision-makers at all levels,” said Oana Lungescu, a distinguished fellow at RUSI and former spokesperson for NATO. “If there is confusion or duplication, that risks slowing down the decision-making, which has implications because time is always of the essence.”

Another problem is the EU’s lack of secure communications and suspicion that sensitive information shared during ambassador gatherings can be leaked, several diplomats said. Reports that Hungary’s ex-foreign minister shared the contents of leader-level talks with his Russian counterpart only deepened these concerns, leading capitals to restrict truly sensitive information to NATO formats.

“My government is very suspicious of sharing sensitive intelligence in Coreper or even in the leaders’ room,” said a diplomat from an eastern flank state. “It either shows up in the media or goes straight to Moscow.”

Overlapping protocols

The pushback coincides with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s efforts to bolster the bloc’s security credentials.

In her latest State of the European Union speech in Strasbourg, the former German defense minister pitched an “emergency security protocol” to help EU states coordinate in exactly the kind of scenario being discussed. The protocol, along with von der Leyen’s pitch to create a “European Security Council,” is expected to feature in a landmark “European Security Strategy” due out in early November, according to two diplomats.

But several diplomats pushed back, arguing these efforts would take months to set up and potentially duplicate functions that already exist inside the EU.

Instead of creating new formats that add complexity, one senior national diplomat said the EU should double down on the crisis-response tools it already has.

“We’re very uncomfortable about [the] emergency security protocol,” the diplomat said. “We already have mechanisms in place. If there is a crisis, we have the Integrated Political Response (IPCR) that worked very well during the pandemic and other crises.”

Putin doesn’t care

Established under the scope of the Lisbon Treaty, the IPCR allows the holder of the EU’s rotating presidency, at the request of an affected country, to call emergency meetings involving experts from NATO, the U.N., or other international bodies.

In the event of a major hybrid attack, the onus remains on the affected country to decide on the best way forward. France triggered the EU’s Article 42.7 following the 2015 Bataclan attacks, marking the only time the mutual assistance clause has been invoked. However, Lungescu noted this was a “political decision” by Paris that did not lead to major displays of mutual assistance beyond coordinating terror investigations between France and Belgium.

To avoid confusion over who does what during a mass-casualty event, Lungescu said both parties should divide labor: NATO handling intelligence-sharing and military deterrence, and the EU focusing on civilian response.

For Tiilikainen, EU efforts to coordinate responses to hybrid attacks are useful — within limits. However, she noted they are “not comparable with resilience measures at a national level,” such as Finland’s “comprehensive security” approach.

Lungescu also stressed that Moscow makes no distinction between the two organizations. “Frankly, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin doesn’t care whether decisions are taken by Coreper 2 or the NAC,” she added, referring to the meetings of EU ambassadors or NATO’s decision-making body. “This is not how Moscow thinks.”

Victor Jack contributed reporting.

The Axel Springer Global Reporters Network harnesses the resources of the company’s newsrooms to publish ambitious scoops, investigations, interviews, opinion pieces and analysis. It allows journalists — including those from POLITICO, The Telegraph, Business Insider, WELT, BILD, Onet and Fakt — to collaborate on major stories for an international audience of hundreds of millions across platforms: online, print, TV and audio.

The race for some of the EU’s most coveted diplomatic jobs is under way.

Zoya Sheftalovich and Nick Vinocur unpack why this year’s routine EEAS rotation is attracting unusually strong interest from senior Commission officials — and what it says about the mood in Brussels.

Then, we head to France, where a wave of student protests is spilling into the presidential campaign, sharpening the contrast between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen and adding to what one government adviser called a “maxi merde” moment for French politics.

Plus, Brussels’ revamped Schuman roundabout is becoming a new protest hotspot — close enough for the noise to reach the upper floors of the Berlaymont.

Questions? Comments? Let us know on our WhatsApp here or at +32 491 05 06 29.