BRUSSELS — There is “no logic” to U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent moves to take Russia’s side in the Ukraine war, and he should remember his true allies lie in Europe, Finland’s prime minister said Thursday. 

In an exclusive interview with POLITICO, Petteri Orpo summed up the shock and dismay among Ukraine’s allies after Trump announced a diesel deal with Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, and reportedly imposed limits on Kyiv’s access to the military intelligence and technology needed to counter Russian attacks.

“My message to him [Trump] is that we are allies,” Orpo said on the sidelines of the European Council summit in Brussels. “We are in NATO. And what is the biggest threat against NATO? It’s Russia — and that is why there is no logic. I don’t have answers. I have many questions.” 

Trump alarmed European leaders and horrified Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week by announcing a deal to release Russian diesel onto the market, apparently in an attempt to lower fuel costs for American consumers. Ukraine’s allies fear the move will boost Russia’s revenue from fuel sales, giving it more money to spend on war. 

Trump also said Ukraine should stop hitting Russian fossil fuel facilities — as part of what he said was a ceasefire on energy infrastructure — and should replace Zelenskyy. 

Finland is an influential voice among Ukraine’s European allies: The country has the EU’s longest land border with Russia, at 1,300 km, and its president, Alexander Stubb — a talented sportsman — won Trump’s respect on the golf course, giving him leeway to try to influence White House policy.

Orpo said if he were in Trump’s position “I would not trust Putin.” Zelenskyy has said he fears Ukraine is losing the U.S. to Russia’s side in the war, warning the Americans and their president are on “the wrong side of history”. Orpo said he agreed: “I think he is, and they are.” 

Ukraine now faces grave danger, he said. “The sky is open for Russia, there are missiles. They need more military support, air defense,” Orpo said. “Also, the situation is dangerous because of the latest deal between Trump and Putin.”

Midterms move

One possible reason Trump turned against Ukraine with that diesel deal is the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. “I think it is because of domestic reasons — elections are coming,” Orpo said. “But we need to get them back.” Nonetheless, he said the amount of Russian diesel that could be sold to the U.S. is too small to make much of a difference for American consumers. 

Whatever happens, EU leaders must equip Ukraine with weapons and cash, whether or not they can rely on the U.S., he said. “Today, we need to find a solution [on] how to support Ukraine, how to finance Ukraine in this winter, but also in next year,” Orpo said. “It’s crucial.”

Finland and Sweden are among the countries pushing the European Commission to reopen the fractious debate over how to use Russia’s financial assets currently frozen in European banks, especially in Belgium, which blocked a deal to raid the funds last year over legal concerns. 

“The best solution would be that we will have a solution on how to use frozen assets,” he said. “We have to try again,” Orpo said. 

Finland has asked the Commission “to continue work with Belgium, and the other member states, to find a solution.” He said he hoped to hear an update from the Commission during the summit. “It’s a better solution than using our own money.”

Budget blues

European leaders are arguing this week over their long-term budget, which Brussels officials want to finalize by the end of the year. Many diplomats do not expect a deal this year, and some leaders say they’re in no hurry. 

But others want the budget, worth around €2 trillion, signed off by December because they fear next year’s European elections — especially if far-right leader Marine Le Pen wins the French presidency — will derail negotiations. 

The longer budget negotiations last, the “more difficulties we will have,” Orpo said. “So we have to work to find a solution this year. I understand very well that it is difficult, a huge challenge, but I cannot see how it would be easier next year, because in France elections are coming, for example.”

Finland also has an election coming up in April 2027. Orpo’s center-right National Coalition Party is struggling in the polls. “This time has been very difficult,” he said. “But, finally, our economy is growing.”

Orpo’s Swedish sister party, the Moderates, mounted a late surge in last month’s election. Although that seems unlikely to keep them in office, Sweden’s Moderates still have a slim chance, even though many commentators had written them off long before the vote.

“They did excellent campaign work, and in the end of the day, people vote Moderates, not populist or socialist,” Orpo said. “I would like the same in Finland.”

PARIS — Jean-Luc Mélenchon pointed to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez as proof that greater public spending can boost the French economy and repair its strained public finances.

“Ever since Spain adopted a budget focused on ecological and social growth, it has experienced steady growth and a decline in its debt,” said Mélenchon, the leading left-wing candidate for next year’s presidential election in France.

In a press conference focused on the budget on Wednesday, the 75-year-old radical doubled down on his calls for a positive demand shock driven by billions in new state spending. He also reiterated his proposal to write off billions of euros in French debt held by the European Central Bank, which has drawn strong criticism, including from ECB President Christine Lagarde.

Polls show Mélenchon neck and neck with center-right candidate Édouard Philippe in the race to qualify for a second-round runoff against Marine Le Pen, the far-right frontrunner who presented her own budget plans last week.

Under Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, Spain has significantly reduced its budget deficit, while public debt is projected to fall below 100% of GDP in 2026. His government has raised the minimum wage and supported investment in green energy, alongside other sectors. Although inflation is a major concern and economic growth is expected to moderate in 2027, Spain remains one of Europe’s fastest-growing major economies, with the IMF on Tuesday forecasting 2.5% growth in 2026.

Spanish deficit fell significantly under Sánchez, and became one of the Eurozone’s fastest-growing economies after the pandemic.

Spain’s debt-to-GDP ratio dropped below 100% — while France’s raised to 119% — as the government invested heavily in sectors such as green energy and raised the minimum wage. But the cost of living remains a major concern in the country, particularly housing — one of the issues that led Sánchez to call a snap election earlier this month.

More money, less problems?

Mélenchon wants to boost growth by increasing purchasing power through higher salaries — including a higher minimum wage, a 10% raise for public-sector workers and a nationwide round of collective bargaining — as well as higher benefits for welfare recipients and a monthly payment of €1,337 for every French student intended to lift them above the poverty line.

Together, these measures form what his campaign calls an €82 billion “emergency spending” package.

Eric Coquerel, a Mélenchon ally who heads the French National Assembly’s powerful finance committee, argued in the same press conference that the new spending would drive GDP growth and increase tax revenue.

He also outlined ways to fund it, including a 2% wealth tax on households worth more than €100 million, popularized by French economist Gabriel Zucman, and higher taxes on large inheritances, which would be capped at €12 million under a Mélenchon presidency.

Fiscally conservative think tanks such as Institut Montaigne have argued that Mélenchon significantly underestimated the cost of his proposed spending and the potential tax revenue in previous campaigns. Critics also warn of capital flight if he is elected president, as occurred after his political mentor François Mitterrand was elected in 1981 on a platform of mass nationalizations.

Mélenchon blamed the current state of France’s finances on President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to cut several taxes early in his presidency, a move Macron said was intended to attract more investment.

“There are no other causes [of the deficit] than the systematic depletion of the state orchestrated by Macronism,” Mélenchon said.

“We are pitting the virtuous cycle of ecological and social recovery… against the vicious cycle of Macronist budgets and the dismantling of the state,” he added.

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s government has presented a budget with €43 billion in spending cuts, aiming to reduce France’s deficit to 5% of GDP without raising taxes. This year’s deficit is expected to reach 5.4% of GDP, missing the initial 5% target.

The counter-proposal from Mélenchon’s France Unbowed includes €106.4 billion in additional revenue and €81.7 billion in further spending, according to Coquerel, leaving about €25 billion to reduce the deficit.

France’s current center-right government is expected to pass its budget through the country’s hung parliament either by invoking a constitutional mechanism that allows the executive to pass legislation without a vote or by executive order. Mélenchon said his first order of business if elected in May would be to draft a new budget, which he hopes to pass in summer 2027.

France Unbowed advocates for a reduction of France’s contribution to the European Union, which presidential frontrunner Le Pen also wants to cut by €11 billion, though Coquerel clarified that he had not included a potential rebate in his economic forecasts.

Mélenchon intends to use the contribution as leverage to push for revised EU treaties, including scrapping the 3% deficit target for member countries and allowing national governments to adopt protectionist policies.

Critics, including Lagarde, said Mélenchon’s debt proposal was “dangerous” and potentially illegal because it could amount to direct financing of member countries by the ECB, which is prohibited by European treaties.

PARIS — Raphaël Glucksmann’s unexpectedly decisive victory in France’s center-left primary may have won him the backing and resources of the once-powerful Socialist Party, but the 46-year-old MEP needs even more support if he wants to drive his distinctly pro-European platform all the way to the Elysée Palace.

All recent polls show Glucksmann is trailing far-right front-runner Marine Le Pen and her two main challengers for a spot in the presidential election’s second round: the far left’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon and center-right former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe. Mélenchon and Le Pen both want to fundamentally alter Paris’ relationship with Brussels, while Philippe is campaigning mostly on domestic issues.

If he wants to win the presidency, Glucksmann, the leader of the moderate left party Place Publique, needs to woo several constituencies at once: the undecided left-leaning voters considering throwing their support behind Mélenchon’s surging campaign as well as the centrist voters already struggling to choose between Philippe and Gabriel Attal, the head of President Emmanuel Macron’s party.

“We’re still a long way from the final list of candidates, and the political landscape is far from set in stone,” said Socialist MEP Christophe Clergeau, who had backed Glucksmann’s rival Olivier Faure in the center-left primary. “It’s up to [Glucksmann] to build momentum, unite the Socialist family … [and] reach out to all left-wing voters to demonstrate his ability to be our camp’s voice.”

But Glucksmann and his allies are confident that his strong showing in the primary — he won more than 66% of the vote in the first round, more than four times as many votes as his nearest competitor — is a sign of good things to come.

“All the citizens of the left who came, voted, took part have given me tremendous hope,” Glucksmann said in his victory speech. “The result is indisputable: I am tonight the candidate of the democratic left.”

Aurore Lalucq, a fellow S&D MEP and co-president of Place Publique, said the result “isn’t far from a landslide.”

“There is no doubt that his platform is widely supported, and that gives us the strength to rally others behind us,” she said. “The ability to unite comes from strength.”

The next battle

Glucksmann faces stiff competition from Mélenchon and his party, France Unbowed, for voters who lean left.

Glucksmann has long refused to work with France Unbowed. He has accused Mélenchon of using antisemitic tropes — an allegation that the presidential candidate has denied — as well as being insufficiently supportive of Ukraine and too friendly with China.

Mélenchon has been courting support from the French Greens, whose candidate Marine Tondelier is struggling in the polls. Glucksmann is also eyeing support from the Greens, who have frequently teamed up with the Socialists in the past, including during the early years of François Hollande’s presidency.

Tondelier is extremely critical of Glucksmann for his refusal to associate with France Unbowed and participate in a primary contest featuring the party. Her party, however, is increasingly torn between pro-Mélenchon and pro-Glucksmann voices.

An individual close to Glucksmann, who was granted anonymity to discuss campaign strategy, said the MEP is looking to build new alliances and argued that the French Greens “are not limited to Marine Tondelier.”

Then there’s the elephant inside the Socialist room. Hollande, the party’s last president who was elected in 2012 but chose not to run for reelection five years later due to dismal approval ratings, has dropped several clues about his plans to run for president again. He refused to take part in his party’s primary — instead waiting to see if the winner’s campaign would flail, giving him an opening to step in.

Glucksmann said in an interview Monday that Hollande had called him to congratulate him on his win, but the former president has not made a public statement since the primary results.

“I’ve known François Hollande for a long time … I’ll take him at his word, that he was waiting to see how things would look at the end of the year, and that if the momentum around the party’s primary candidate was strong, he wouldn’t undermine that momentum,” said Loïg Chesnais-Girard, the president of Brittany who backed Glucksmann in the primary.

“The focus right now is on building that momentum. And then we’ll see how things play out,” Chesnais-Girard said.

PARIS — France’s Jordan Bardella and Spain’s Santiago Abascal are joining forces ahead of potential milestone elections in their countries, with the duo using a visit by the French far-right leader to Spain to discuss campaign strategy and common themes for their platforms.

Spaniards are heading to the polls on Nov. 29 for snap elections in which Vox, the country’s leading right-wing nationalist force, is hoping to make significant gains. The National Rally, its ally in the European Parliament, is hoping a strong performance by Vox will create broader momentum in Europe as Marine Le Pen eyes victory in next year’s French presidential race. Bardella has been working on firming up his party’s European alliances as well.

Bardella’s two-day trip to Spain began Monday with a stop in the territory of Ceuta, where a mass influx of migrants in July triggered chaos and reignited the political debate on migration, alongside Vox’s Abascal.

Standing next to Bardella in Ceuta, Abascal said the French far-right leader’s presence was “a demonstration that a new era can open for [the two] nations” and praised “collaboration among patriotic forces.”

Spain’s snap elections “will allow the Spanish people to speak their mind, just as the French presidential election in a few months will allow the French people to take back control of their own destiny,” said Bardella, framing migration as an existential issue for both countries, epitomized by the crisis in Ceuta over the summer.

The trip to Ceuta, discussed between the two leaders’ teams over the summer, was finalized after the Spanish elections were called last week. In his address, Bardella also praised Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s decision to institute border checks on Spanish arrivals to Italy after the Ceuta crisis.

Vox and the National Rally are currently allied within the Patriots group in the European Parliament and are hoping to see more of their members access executive power in the coming months, as Spain, France, Poland, Italy and Greece all vote in national elections.

Vox is currently polling third at 18%, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, putting the party on track to gain a significant number of seats. A strong performance by Vox would position it as a key coalition partner for the center-right People’s Party, which is polling first.

Spain’s snap elections are “a significant milestone because a change in government is within reach,” National Rally MEP and former Frontex boss Fabrice Leggeri told POLITICO ahead of the Ceuta trip, which he attended.

On Tuesday, Abascal and Bardella are scheduled to hold closed-door meetings on their campaign strategy. They will also introduce their respective staffs and exchange ideas on key themes for their platform, including housing, according to Thibaut François, the secretary general of the National Rally delegation in Brussels and an adviser to Bardella. Both leaders “are working on their accession to [executive] power,” François said.

The men will also speak at the high-level Nueva Economía business forum in Madrid, where Abascal is invited to speak on stage for the first time.

Bardella has made a breakthrough in business circles and is now a regular guest at high-level events of this nature.

For him, the Spanish trip is also a welcome escape from the domestic controversy surrounding investigative outlet Mediapart’s reporting that he expressed antisemitic views in private messages when he was 17. The French far-right leader has repeatedly denied the accusations.

Sarah Paillou contributed to this report.

LONDON — Zack Polanski promised to smash Britain’s two-party political system — but his campaign for a U.K. parliamentary seat has leaned heavily on the idea that he can keep the existing prime minister honest.

POLITICO analysis of the online battleground in the Holborn and St. Pancras by-election – which takes place Thursday — shows the Green leader has been pitching himself as a protest vote for Labour-backing constituents in the London seat, which has been held by Labour since its creation in 1983.

The party has spent nearly £5,000 pushing ads on Meta’s platforms, which include Facebook and Instagram, promising that a Green win would help “keep the government in check.”

In one campaign video, Polanski takes credit for a series of Labour U-turns on their “most unpopular policies” over the last 12 months. A victory in the seat, he claims, would add further pressure on Prime Minister Andy Burnham to listen to the Greens, rather than “Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, or their corporate donors.”

An additional £7,000 has been spent by the party promoting graphics of recent newspaper headlines it thinks demonstrate the influence it holds over Burnham’s Labour government — including a Guardian story flagging a possible delay on North Sea gas field decisions until after the by-election.

“When Zack Polanski speaks, Labour listens. That is the power of the leader of the Green Party,” the accompanying ad copy states.

Building Brand Zack

The by-election marks Polanski’s first attempt to win a seat in the House of Commons.

The left-wing leader oversaw a rapid polling increase for the Greens after taking charge in September 2025, snatching a Labour safe seat in Gorton and Denton under former Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer the following February.

But its polling momentum appears to have stalled since Labour switched to Burnham, and the party has also faced internal rows over anti-semitism.

The party has spent around £8,000 on targeted ads highlighting endorsements for Polanski from local residents, including former independent candidates and NHS workers.

And at least £500 of that has been spent promoting effusive praise of the Green leader from his own local hairdresser.

Alongside a picture of the pair hugging, barber Rami is quoted saying: “I’ve been cutting Zack’s hair for years. When you chat to him you can tell how much he really cares.”

A significant number of the showcased endorsements come from former Labour backers and members as Polanski seeks to convince voters that Burnham’s majority — and the mid-term timing of the contest — means they can register a protest vote in the symbolic seat previously held by Starmer.

One standalone advert features former Labour member Gopa, who says: “We all know there will still be a Labour government whoever wins, so I’m excited for a Green candidate who will listen to us and help push Labour to do better.”

Other endorsements include a Labour member of three decades who says she is now backing Polanski after her former party “lost its way and let me down.” Ex-Labour councillor Naser says he’s switched his allegiance to “keep the pressure on, and keep Labour in check.”

The Labour pitch

By contrast, Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali has kept her campaign local.

She has spent more than £21,000 with Meta promoting dozens of slick cinematic clips and polished graphics pitching herself as a “local champion.”

Supported by Labour’s well-oiled digital team, Abdi-Wali’s online campaign focuses heavily on her experience of arriving in the area as a child refugee, and her subsequent career as a local councillor.

Labour has also pumped more than £20,000 into Google’s ad program. The majority of that sum was spent on bitesize YouTube ads, with the remainder spent on buying up sponsored Google search results in an attempt to grab the attention of voters hunting for information about the contest.

Also running

Britain’s hard-right Restore Britain has also been making a pitch to voters in Holborn and St Pancras — while openly admitting it has no chance of winning in “one of the most left-wing seats in Britain.”

Rupert Lowe’s party has spent around £30,000 on Meta ads positioning itself as a “genuine patriotic alternative” to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK — which has not spent significant cash in the contest.

Restore’s spending included £1,500 promoting a “quiz” comparing comments from Reform politicians with Restore’s more hard-line agenda. A further £2,000 went on promoting a graphic of the “ten reasons” why voters should support it.

That list includes removing “millions of foreign nationals who hate who we are,” a promise to “reverse the Islamification” of London, deport “foreign tramps who ruin our city” and force “healthy” benefit claimants to clean graffiti and pick litter.

In a further attempt to present his insurgent party as a credible alternative to Reform or the Conservatives, Lowe’s paid online content repeatedly describes the by-election as a “free hit” for right-wing voters to “vote with your heart.”

“They don’t want the capital reformed, or conserved,” one paid ad states. “They want London restored.”

MADRID — Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has finally done something the far right approves of — calling a snap election on Nov. 29 that the anti-immigrant Vox party is hailing as “Spain’s last chance to be Spain again.”

Polling third in the race, Vox is Spain’s leading nationalist, euroskeptic force and it sees next month’s contest as its prime opportunity to remold the country after eight years of Sánchez’s socialist premiership by getting its people into top ministerial jobs.

Party leader Santiago Abascal greeted Monday’s election announcement as “excellent news.” His delight is hardly surprising given that polls suggest Vox is on track to make the biggest gains of any major party.

While the center-right People’s Party is expected to come first — with about 33% of the vote, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls — it will almost certainly have to team up with Vox, which commands support of about 18%, to build a stable coalition.

Abascal will then be able to demand the inclusion of key elements of Vox’s agenda as its price for that partnership. Its goals include deportations of undocumented migrants, a benefits preference for Spaniards over foreign nationals, slashing EU health and safety rules in the farming sector and rolling back support for gender equality and the LGBTQ+ community.

Vox secured 33 of the 350 seats in Congress in 2023, but is now set to double that. Under the PP’s coalition leadership, it should be able to form part of a comfortable majority.

“This time round, Vox is much stronger,” José Antonio Fúster, spokesperson for the party and a member of the Madrid regional parliament, said. “We are going into a very important election, not so much for us, as for Spaniards … This is the last hope for Spain to be Spain again.”

Fúster would not be drawn on which ministries his party has set its sights on, warning against “selling the bearskin before it has been hunted.”

Pointing to talks with the PP in recent months in four regions where the two parties now govern in coalition, he said the shaping of policy was being prioritized ahead of institutional power. “That is the last thing we negotiate because it is the least important,” he said.

Pet portfolios

In August, Vox MEP Jorge Buxadé told POLITICO that forming part of the government was not the only option open to his party, but that in a hypothetical coalition with the PP, his party would seek a number of ministries “in proportion to our vote share.”

That would amount to a significant percentage. If current polls translate into results in November, Vox would be in a position to claim about a third of ministerial posts.

Analysts expect Vox to press for portfolios that focus on its pet policies, such as agriculture, domestic policy, immigration and industry. The culture and education portfolios could also be of interest to the party, given their relevance in the hard right’s campaign against so-called wokeism.

The regions where the PP and Vox currently govern together — Andalusia, Aragón, Castile and León, and Extremadura — offer clues: The government departments that Vox controls are mainly linked to agriculture, welfare benefits and the family.

The party is heading into the election campaign espousing three main ideas: the concept of “national priority” — ensuring that Spaniards have access to public services and benefits ahead of foreign nationals — a clampdown on immigration and broad deregulation.

Although Vox’s rise to prominence was driven by its fierce stance against Catalan nationalism nearly a decade ago, that debate has faded from the political arena. Now, its focus is, like its European far-right counterparts, more firmly on immigration-related matters.

“Before, Vox talked about immigration, but it wasn’t the nuclear issue it has become,” said Guillermo Fernández Vázquez, a political scientist at Carlos III University and author of a book about the European far right. “Now, when Vox talks about social security payments, it talks about immigration; when it talks about the economy, it talks about immigration. Immigration is the issue that dictates everything.”

Vox also subscribes to the “remigration” policy being touted by many far-right parties, under which undocumented migrants and those who commit crimes would be deported. The PP has appeared to respond to Vox’s hard line by toughening its own stance, calling for the expulsion of foreign criminals and opposing a government migrant legalization program.

In each of the regions where the two parties are in coalition, Vox has ensured that its senior partner agreed to formally include the national priority principle in their governing agreement.

“But when it comes to national priority, the PP has added the caveat that it has to be implemented in line with the law,” said Miguel González, a journalist at the El País daily newspaper and author of a book about Vox. Legislation prevents discrimination against foreign nationals when it comes to accessing public benefits and services, meaning the policy is currently little more than symbolic in those regions. 

“In reality, in order to implement this properly, you’d have to change the immigration law,” González added.

Vox is eyeing an overhaul of that legislation to make it a workable policy.

“It’s very possible to change laws that are bad for Spaniards, so we have to roll them back and introduce new laws, making sure that Spaniards are not last in line,” Fúster said.

Deregulation nation

Deregulation also offers a platform from which to attack EU health-and-safety norms that are reviled by the farming sector, one of Vox’s main voter bases.

Fúster accepted that this could lead to clashes with the European Commission, but insisted that pressure from what he described as a rising tide of European parties sharing Vox’s values would “make sure that Brussels returns to the path of common sense.”

PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo has criticized phytosanitary restrictions on farmers but has shown little appetite for conflict with European institutions.

In social policy, González said Vox might use the broader notion of deregulation to dismantle funding for gender equality and LGBTQ+ departments and projects, as it has done on a local level. Fúster was reluctant to be drawn on this: “We believe in the equality of Spaniards,” he said. “We don’t believe that anyone should have privileges above others.”

Fernández Vázquez of Carlos III University said that the origins of Vox suggest a bumpy ride for the PP. Vox would be the first far-right party to enter government in half a century since the death of Francisco Franco in 1975 — and there would likely be clashes.

The far-right party formed in 2013 as a breakaway from the conservatives in frustration at what its founders saw as the pusillanimity of the PP in the face of Catalan separatism. 

“I think the relationship between Vox and PP [in government] will be a bad one,” the researcher said. “Abascal and his colleagues are going to enjoy showing up Feijóo whenever they can, portraying him as lukewarm and weak.”

Fúster accepted “it could be a difficult relationship,” adding that the PP “don’t see things the way we do and we don’t share their vision.”

“We’re not willing to make concessions, we’re willing to have a frank, open and reasonable negotiation.”

But for now, the priority is simply to remove the Socialists. In his traditionally combative style, Abascal insisted the election was a chance to hold on to “the peace, prosperity and freedom that a mafioso government wants to snatch from us forever.”

Max Griera contributed to this article.

Spaniards have eight weeks to decide whether Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez should extend his eight-year tenure, or make way for a right-wing administration that could dramatically change the national trajectory — not least because it could include the far-right Vox party.

Here, POLITICO breaks down the main factors that will shape the Nov. 29 snap election.

The immediate spark may have been nationwide housing protests, but the race will also be shaped by Spain’s political extremes, the unresolved migrant crisis in Ceuta and geopolitics in the age of Trump.

Here are five things to watch.

Kingmakers on the extremes

Spain’s two largest parties — Sánchez’s center-left Socialist Party and Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s center-right People’s Party — are expected to get roughly the same results as they did when voters went to the polls in 2023, with both falling short of a governing majority. That means the next government will be led by whoever can cobble together the largest parliamentary alliance.

Polls put the People’s Party at around 34 percent, ahead of Sánchez’s Socialists, who are backed by 26% of voters. PP leader Feijóo says he is comfortable governing with the far-right Vox party, which is polling at around 18 percent, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls. The PP already governs alongside Vox in several regions.

Sánchez’s hopes of reelection hinge on pulling off the same unlikely feat he achieved three years ago, when he managed to form a parliamentary majority with far-left, regional and separatist forces.

This time around, that option appears to be out of reach as a result of the collapse of the country’s left-wing political forces. Sumar — the junior partner in Sánchez’s coalition government — has plummeted in the polls and is currently leaderless.

Health Minister Mónica García is among the frontrunners to head the new alliance, which plans to present itself as the “Broad Front” later this month. It will be up to its eventual leader to try to forge a viable left-wing electoral alliance with bitter rivals Podemos, as well as big personalities like housing activist and former Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau.

Appetite for Vox

Over the past decade, the far-right Vox party has evolved from a fringe group into a major political force — and, now, a plausible coalition partner in a national PP government.

In contrast to when national elections were last held in Spain, Vox has a clear track record of teaming up with the PP at the local and regional levels. The two parties currently govern together in Extremadura, Aragón, Castilla y León and Andalusia, and previously ruled in Valencia and Murcia.

Within those governments, Vox has successfully pressured the PP into adopting tougher migration policies and denouncing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s Green Deal. Some PP-Vox governments have also replaced policies on violence against women with a broader “intra-family” framing that waters down the gender-specific nature of such crimes, and rolled back LGBTQ+ protections.

In 2023, Sánchez used the prospect of a PP-Vox government to spook voters into backing his candidacy, but it looks less likely that strategy can pack such a punch this time. Vox has expanded its political representation in several elections over the past three years, suggesting the party may no longer carry the same electoral stigma.

But the PP will nonetheless have to tread lightly. Although its clearest path to power involves a coalition with Vox, saying so may turn off moderate voters. The worse the center-right party performs, the more power its eventual far-right partners will have to determine policy.

The open wounds

There are two unresolved issues that could shake up the election: the Ceuta migration crisis and the ongoing corruption cases involving members of Sánchez’s inner circle.

Thousands of migrants remain in Ceuta after a mass surge that prompted major questions about Spain’s security readiness and its tense relationship with Morocco. While the recent housing protests have momentarily distracted voters, attention on the crisis could return as judicial investigations produce new findings detailing the government’s handling of the event.

King Felipe VI’s visit to Ceuta and Melilla next week could prompt a major diplomatic clash with Morocco, which claims the exclaves as its own and has warned that the visit would be a “provocation.” Any fresh influx of migrants into Ceuta would also increase focus on the unresolved crisis and reshape the electoral narrative around border security and national defense.

The focus of the campaign could also be derailed by the corruption scandals affecting the prime minister’s inner circle. Sánchez’s wife, Begoña Gómez, faces trial for alleged influence peddling and embezzlement. The trial date has not yet been set and is not expected to begin before the election.

Fresh revelations involving close Sánchez ally and former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who is under investigation for alleged influence peddling, criminal organization and document falsification, could prove costly. So, too, could findings linked to the investigation into the Socialist Party’s alleged plot to discredit the judiciary.

Both Gómez and Zapatero maintain their innocence.

The power of the protesters

Sánchez on Monday boasted that, during his time in office, Spain has become “the fastest-growing economy in the entire European Union, leading in job creation.”

But average citizens are not necessarily feeling the impact of Spain’s strong growth and record employment figures. Inflation has outpaced salary gains, leaving many households with little additional purchasing power as prices — and, most crucially, housing costs — surge.

Spain’s housing activists have succeeded in harnessing wider frustration over the cost of living and organizing massive demonstrations and protest encampments in nearly every major city.

The Spanish Tenants’ Union could play a key role in the election by either endorsing a party or undermining turnout by telling supporters to stay home.

The union’s spokesperson, Valeria Racu, told POLITICO her group wanted politicians to commit to enacting indefinite rental contracts, legally mandated rent reductions, an end to evictions and speculative purchases, and a major expansion of public housing by reclaiming homes held by banks and investment funds.

Parties that make those commitments stand to benefit from the protesters’ votes. If none do so, however, there could be a substantial drop in turnout as disillusioned voters stay home. Although polls show housing is a top concern for voters across the ideological spectrum, that scenario would likely be felt most among left-wing parties.

The Trump effect

Three decades ago, then-Agriculture Minister Jesús Posada told conservative Prime Minister José María Aznar that his campaign needed to be based “less on Syria, and more on [the Spanish region of] Soria.”

Elections in Spain are generally decided by local concerns, not foreign affairs. But polls show that Sánchez’s standing has risen when he has clashed with U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the conflicts in Gaza and Iran.

Meanwhile, Trump remains an awkward topic for the People’s Party. Its advocacy of a more traditionally Atlanticist, Washington-friendly foreign policy is hardly a crowd-pleaser in a country where recent POLITICO polling found that a majority of respondents — 51 percent — considered the U.S. to pose a “threat” to Europe.

Vox’s unabashedly pro-MAGA stance has also created tensions with parts of its electorate. The U.S.’s military operations have contributed to soaring fuel and fertilizer costs, hitting the party’s rural voters particularly hard. Trump’s feud with Pope Leo XIV has also raised eyebrows among its conservative Catholic supporters, while the president’s clash with his former ally, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, has irked some far-right supporters.

All politics may be local, but in the world of Trump, developments abroad can have major impact in Spain — and could well play a role in the election.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez hopes his country’s dire housing crisis has become so bad that it overshadows the other challenges Spain faces.

Nationwide protests over skyrocketing rents and real estate speculation have rocked Spain in recent weeks, prompting the Socialist leader to call snap elections for Nov. 29 on Monday.

Sánchez, who is under pressure over the ongoing migrant crisis in Ceuta, as well as corruption cases involving members of his family and close political allies, is aiming to capitalize on popular discontent over housing to pull off a long-shot reelection — while portraying Spain’s conservative opposition as an obstacle to solving the problem.

But critics have questioned the wisdom of the prime minister casting himself as a champion of housing rights when his time in power has coincided with a deepening of the current crisis.

Valeria Racu, spokesperson for the Spanish Tenants’ Union, which has spearheaded the housing protests, said Sánchez had “no track record to boast about” and called his Socialist Party “a party of landlords.”

“We’re done with these politicians,” she added. “We’re not falling for their nonsense anymore.”

Pablo Simón, a political scientist at Madrid’s Carlos III University, thinks the prime minister’s electoral bet made sense.

“The current outlook for Sánchez is dire,” he said. “Even if you ignore the migrant crisis in Ceuta — which isn’t going to be solved anytime soon — and the ongoing corruption cases, he’s still leading a minority government that can’t pass any legislation, with negative inflation steadily undermining his claim that Spain is doing great in economic terms.”

By making the election about housing, Simón added, the prime minister is seeking to shift the conversation away from corruption in his inner circle and the national defense issues surrounding Spain’s North African exclaves, and toward the social issues championed by the left.

A nationwide crisis

Spain’s housing crisis is rooted in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, when banks sharply restricted mortgage lending to ordinary families.

“The cash didn’t disappear from the market, it just ended up in the hands of investors,” said Spanish National Research Council housing expert Javier Gil. “What we see in Spain is a new cycle led by speculative, non-residential demand.”

That cycle resulted in a “tenant generation” unable to access home ownership not simply because of a lack of housing, he added, but because high-income investors have bought homes as assets.

The scale of the crisis is stark. Between 2015 and 2025, average home prices in Spain rose by 80% and rents shot up by 87%, while salaries increased by only 30%. 

The price hikes have been particularly punishing for young Spaniards. According to the latest figures from Spain’s National Statistics Institute, 69% of Spaniards aged 18 to 34 live with their parents — a rate surpassed only by young people in Croatia.

The same tourism boom that resulted in generated €200.7 billion in 2024, equivalent to 12.6% of GDP, has drawn real estate investors to major cities and tourist destinations. Although Sánchez’s government has taken steps to rein in the short-term rental market, the number of nights spent in tourist apartments has doubled since he took office in 2018.

Population growth has added pressure in major urban centers. Spain has gained more than 3 million residents since 2015, including 793,000 in Madrid, 556,000 in Barcelona and 279,000 in Valencia — all cities where housing costs have risen sharply.

Sánchez has not been blind to the crisis, calling housing the country’s “great constitutional challenge.” In 2023, he pledged to use “all state resources” to provide 184,000 public and affordable rental homes. 

But when the government last provided a detailed accounting of the effort, in August 2024, it said only 14,000 homes had been “made available to citizens” through a social scheme. Some 60,000 other properties were reported to be in various stages of development.

The recent rollout of the government’s new housing portal, CASA47, was similarly underwhelming. It initially listed just 638 homes, none of which were in markets like Madrid or Barcelona, where the crisis is particularly acute.

“Sánchez’s Socialist Party has spent years claiming to want to tackle the housing market, but in practical terms it’s followed the same approach as right-wing parties,” Gil said. “They’ve avoided questioning the status quo or proposing structural limits or transformations.”

Even last week’s housing decrees — which included plans to curb speculative practices, extend eviction protections for vulnerable tenants until 2030 and automatically renew existing rental contracts, and which were ultimately rejected by lawmakers — contained only minimal measures unlikely to substantially address the crisis, Gil added.

“There’s a clear disconnect with the public mood,” he said. “Right now there is a widespread feeling in society that people have had enough and want greater market intervention.”

Questionable pivot

Despite his mixed record on the issue, Sánchez is determined to campaign as a housing champion.

Before parliament is dissolved, he plans to have the Council of Ministers reapprove the housing bills rejected by lawmakers last Friday. The measures could then be voted on by the legislature’s standing committee, which remains active after dissolution.

The move, which is clearly aimed at keeping the issue alive ahead of the election, has been denounced as a cynical ploy by Spain’s conservative opposition.

Center-right People’s Party lawmaker Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo last week said the government’s only substantial housing measure had been “giving a whore an apartment in the Plaza de España,” referring to allegations that former Transport Minister José Luis Ábalos used kickbacks to finance a flat for his mistress.

Ábalos, who was sentenced to a 24-year prison sentence after being convicted of influence peddling and other crimes in June, denies the accusation.

The far-right Vox party has likewise ridiculed Sánchez’s housing pivot, arguing that the government’s migration policies made the housing shortage worse and saying Sánchez should instead focus on the needs of Ceuta’s residents.

The attacks illustrate how difficult it will be for Sánchez to keep the election debate focused on housing rather than corruption and migration.

“It’s obvious he doesn’t have a great track record on housing, but he’s trying to do his best with the electoral cards he’s been dealt,” Simón said. He predicted the Socialist leader would campaign less on specific measures than on broad social issues and the threat posed by the rising far-right.

“He did this in the last election, in which he sidestepped a review of his government’s performance and centered the conversation on the implications of a PP-Vox government,” he said. “Housing is the pretext to call the election and center the conversation on social issues.”

It’s unclear whether that strategy will appeal to the thousands of Spaniards who have taken to the streets over the past week.

Racu said the Tenants’ Union wants politicians to commit to enacting indefinite rental contracts, legally mandated rent reductions, an end to evictions and speculative purchases, and a major expansion of public housing by reclaiming homes held by banks and investment funds.

She declined to say what protesters should do if none of the parties running in the election commit to meeting their demands.

“Voting is important, it’s a right that was won through bloodshed, suffering, and violence in the face of the Francoist dictatorship,” she said. “But democracy and people’s power reside in much more than a vote every four years.”

“In eight days of people power, we have done more for housing than eight years of progressive government,” Racu added. “Whoever governs, this is not going to stop. Politics is returning to where it always should have been: the streets and the people.”

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Monday called a snap election for Nov. 29, a vote that could signal the demise of the EU’s last major Socialist government and remove one of Europe’s chief critics of U.S. President Donald Trump from the political front line. 

Already weakened by the corruption cases battering his Socialist Party, Sánchez took a further knock this summer when he faced fierce blowback over his handling of the ongoing migrant crisis in the North African exclave of Ceuta.

But the bitter topic of unaffordable housing — something that tops the list of voters’ concerns in Spain and which has sparked nationwide protests — has finally prompted Sánchez to call an early election in an apparent bid to seize a campaign battleground he believes could work to his advantage.     

Lawmakers on Friday rejected two bills intended to address a housing crisis that has ignited major protests across the country since last week over the eviction of 87-year-old Maricarmen Abascal from the Madrid apartment where she had lived since 1956.

Although Sánchez has established a reputation as a master of the political bounce-back, he faces a steep climb to turn this latest crisis to his advantage.

Polls overwhelmingly suggest that the country will vote in an administration led by the center-right People’s Party, currently supported by 34% of the electorate, compared with 26% backing the Socialist Party. The PP would likely partner with the far-right Vox party, which is projected to score 18%, according to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls. 

In calling for an election, Sánchez warned of the surge of the far right.

“You, the Spanish people, must decide what role you wish to play in this era, and what role you want Spain to play,” he said in his address to the nation.

“You must decide whether to join the far-right wave that drives regression wherever it governs, or whether you want Spain to remain a bastion of openness, social justice, and environmental responsibility,” he added.

Mixed track record

Sánchez used the televised address announcing the snap elections to highlight what his minority coalition government had achieved since coming to office in 2023. 

The prime minister emphasized the strides Spain has made on the economic front, becoming “the fastest-growing economy in the entire European Union, leading in job creation,” and underscored the continued investments in green energy that have made the country a renewables powerhouse.

He also highlighted his own role on the international stage, where he has gained prominence as one of the Western leaders to most forcefully condemn both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the conflicts in Gaza and Iran, and clashed with tech giants such as Elon Musk.

Sánchez said Spaniards could be proud of a government that “denounces genocidal figures while others remain silent and fights the tyrants, oligarchs, and speculators who seek to destroy our children’s future to line their own pockets.” 

While insisting that his government had “transformed Spain into a global benchmark for peace, feminism, and prosperity, allowing us to achieve the best economic, social, and environmental results of any democratic government in our country’s history,” Sánchez also acknowledged that many Spaniards felt “dissatisfaction.”

Average citizens are not feeling the impact of Spain’s strong growth and record employment figures. Inflation outpaces salary gains, leaving most households with little additional purchasing power as prices and housing costs surge. 

Moreover, episodes like last year’s Iberian blackout tarnished the prestige of the country’s green energy network, and the international response to the ongoing Ceuta migrant crisis has raised doubts about Spain’s heft on the global stage. 

Sánchez admitted his government had made mistakes and “not managed to achieve everything we set out to do.”

“Many injustices remain to be corrected, many social goals to be attained, and many problems to be solved — particularly regarding inequality in public services and access to housing,” he said. “But the fact is that to do more, we need to renew and expand public support in order to undertake the deep reforms required for citizens to reduce these levels of inequality.”

Polls favor conservatives

Although Sánchez has established a reputation as a master of the political bounce-back, he faces a steep climb to turn this latest crisis to his advantage.

The PP, which has called for snap elections almost from the moment Sánchez renewed his hold on power at the end of 2023, reacted to the news with the short tweet: “AT LAST.”

The snap election caught Spain’s fractured far-left parties scrambling to regroup. That’s a problem for Sánchez’s Socialists, who need the groups to their left to unite behind a viable electoral alliance in order to form a fresh coalition government.

With Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz declining to run for reelection, the Sumar group — junior partners in Sánchez’s coalition government – is still searching for a leader, which is expected to be unveiled on Oct. 17, when the party rebrands as the “Broad Front.”

Health Minister Mónica García is the frontrunner to be lead candidate, with Culture Minister Ernest Urtasun running as the main figure in Catalonia.

It remains unclear whether that project will be able to incorporate Spain’s other major far-left party, Podemos, or figures such as longtime housing activist and former Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau, who has signaled a willingness to return to frontline politics.