BRUSSELS — There is “no logic” to U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent moves to take Russia’s side in the Ukraine war, and he should remember his true allies lie in Europe, Finland’s prime minister said Thursday. 

In an exclusive interview with POLITICO, Petteri Orpo summed up the shock and dismay among Ukraine’s allies after Trump announced a diesel deal with Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, and reportedly imposed limits on Kyiv’s access to the military intelligence and technology needed to counter Russian attacks.

“My message to him [Trump] is that we are allies,” Orpo said on the sidelines of the European Council summit in Brussels. “We are in NATO. And what is the biggest threat against NATO? It’s Russia — and that is why there is no logic. I don’t have answers. I have many questions.” 

Trump alarmed European leaders and horrified Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week by announcing a deal to release Russian diesel onto the market, apparently in an attempt to lower fuel costs for American consumers. Ukraine’s allies fear the move will boost Russia’s revenue from fuel sales, giving it more money to spend on war. 

Trump also said Ukraine should stop hitting Russian fossil fuel facilities — as part of what he said was a ceasefire on energy infrastructure — and should replace Zelenskyy. 

Finland is an influential voice among Ukraine’s European allies: The country has the EU’s longest land border with Russia, at 1,300 km, and its president, Alexander Stubb — a talented sportsman — won Trump’s respect on the golf course, giving him leeway to try to influence White House policy.

Orpo said if he were in Trump’s position “I would not trust Putin.” Zelenskyy has said he fears Ukraine is losing the U.S. to Russia’s side in the war, warning the Americans and their president are on “the wrong side of history”. Orpo said he agreed: “I think he is, and they are.” 

Ukraine now faces grave danger, he said. “The sky is open for Russia, there are missiles. They need more military support, air defense,” Orpo said. “Also, the situation is dangerous because of the latest deal between Trump and Putin.”

Midterms move

One possible reason Trump turned against Ukraine with that diesel deal is the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. “I think it is because of domestic reasons — elections are coming,” Orpo said. “But we need to get them back.” Nonetheless, he said the amount of Russian diesel that could be sold to the U.S. is too small to make much of a difference for American consumers. 

Whatever happens, EU leaders must equip Ukraine with weapons and cash, whether or not they can rely on the U.S., he said. “Today, we need to find a solution [on] how to support Ukraine, how to finance Ukraine in this winter, but also in next year,” Orpo said. “It’s crucial.”

Finland and Sweden are among the countries pushing the European Commission to reopen the fractious debate over how to use Russia’s financial assets currently frozen in European banks, especially in Belgium, which blocked a deal to raid the funds last year over legal concerns. 

“The best solution would be that we will have a solution on how to use frozen assets,” he said. “We have to try again,” Orpo said. 

Finland has asked the Commission “to continue work with Belgium, and the other member states, to find a solution.” He said he hoped to hear an update from the Commission during the summit. “It’s a better solution than using our own money.”

Budget blues

European leaders are arguing this week over their long-term budget, which Brussels officials want to finalize by the end of the year. Many diplomats do not expect a deal this year, and some leaders say they’re in no hurry. 

But others want the budget, worth around €2 trillion, signed off by December because they fear next year’s European elections — especially if far-right leader Marine Le Pen wins the French presidency — will derail negotiations. 

The longer budget negotiations last, the “more difficulties we will have,” Orpo said. “So we have to work to find a solution this year. I understand very well that it is difficult, a huge challenge, but I cannot see how it would be easier next year, because in France elections are coming, for example.”

Finland also has an election coming up in April 2027. Orpo’s center-right National Coalition Party is struggling in the polls. “This time has been very difficult,” he said. “But, finally, our economy is growing.”

Orpo’s Swedish sister party, the Moderates, mounted a late surge in last month’s election. Although that seems unlikely to keep them in office, Sweden’s Moderates still have a slim chance, even though many commentators had written them off long before the vote.

“They did excellent campaign work, and in the end of the day, people vote Moderates, not populist or socialist,” Orpo said. “I would like the same in Finland.”

PARIS — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy replied to French far-right presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen’s pledge to cut financial aid with a message: Europe is benefitting from Ukraine.

“Ukraine will give back security. It’s security and experience, the price is not so high as people’s lives, that’s why I think that Madame Le Pen is not deeply [acquainted] with some details,” he told the Financial Times. “We give back and this is very important.”

Le Pen has repeatedly said, including to POLITICO, that she would stop financial aid to Ukraine if she’s elected as French president next year — but suggested France could keep training Ukraine’s military and provide non-financial assistance. Le Pen, the National Rally candidate, is currently leading the polls.

Zelenskyy stressed that European armed forces and defense industries, including France’s, were benefiting from Ukraine’s battlefield experience. “It’s win-win,” he said. `

He argued that Le Pen should keep supporting Ukraine because it’s helping the Franco-Italian air defense system SAMP/T, which is currently deployed in the war-torn country, be more efficient. “We made a lot of different changes together with French guys, because they saw how it worked and how it works now.”

“The French industry only wins with these technologies, cooperation, co-production,” he added. “I will not vote for her … because I’m Ukrainian,” he also joked.

Ukrainian frontline soldiers are alarmed that Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite service is reportedly being restricted on fast-moving military platforms, warning of severe operational consequences.

“This is comparable to a nuclear strike against us. All operations are on hold. This will cost many of us our lives,” an experienced Ukrainian officer told POLITICO and the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network.

The officer commands a medium-range drone strike unit in southeastern Ukraine. The unit relies heavily on Starlink for the operation and navigation of its American-made Hornet drones, used to strike targets at a range of up to 150 kilometers.

“Since last night, all Starlink and Starshield terminals used by our forces have been subject to a speed limit of 100 kilometers per hour,” the officer said.

POLITICO talked to three frontline soldiers, who all spoke on condition of being granted anonymity, as well as a Ukrainian defense ministry spokesperson and the EU’s top defense official.

The reported restrictions have revived a question Ukrainian commanders have worried about for years: how much of the country’s battlefield communications can rely on a service controlled by a U.S. company.

Ukrainian soldiers say the restrictions have halted some medium-range drone strikes over Ukraine, disrupting attacks on Russian logistics and leaving frontline Ukrainian troops with less support. The scale of the disruption — and whether it was deliberate — remains unclear.

In a comment on X, Musk said: “Starshield systems are owned and controlled by the US government. Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS,” referring to the Starshield division of Starlink that is used for military purposes.

“Starlink is a commercial service owned and controlled by SpaceX,” he added. “Usage of Starlink is limited to civilian or defensive activities and cannot be used for offensive military action, as doing so would be inappropriate for a commercial company.”

Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s former defense minister who has good contacts in Silicon Valley, said late Wednesday: “Starlink connectivity at speeds of up to 160 km/h is being restored. Removing Starshield’s speed limit entirely is now critical for Ukraine’s defense.”

The White House and the Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The restrictions have brought “all medium-range strike operations to a complete halt,” the officer said, including those using mesh-based systems. These rely on a single Starlink-equipped UAV to receive and relay signals to other drones connected through a mesh network, allowing them to strike targets deep inside Russian-held territory or in areas heavily protected by Russian electronic warfare systems.

Such targets include the Donetsk region, the strategically important Novorossiya highway linking Russia to Crimea, the Crimean Peninsula itself, the Kerch area and the Black Sea.

“We can no longer fight effectively to support our infantry on the battlefield. We can no longer strike multiple-launch rocket systems, North Korean-supplied heavy self-propelled artillery positioned deep behind enemy lines, ammunition depots, command centers and other targets,” the officer said.

“The Ukrainian frontline is very much dependent on Starlink-operated mid-strike drones,” Iryna Terekh, CEO of Ukrainian missile-maker Fire Point told POLITICO.

Ukraine’s devastating campaign

For months, Ukrainian medium-range strike drones have inflicted significant damage on Russian logistics in frontline regions. They have disrupted the supply of fuel, ammunition and other military equipment, slowing Russia’s advance. 

The officer said he feared that the Starlink restrictions will give Russian troops a critical opportunity to strengthen their positions.

“Starting today, the enemy will build up its logistics routes to Crimea to reinforce its forces there,” he warned.

Two other Ukrainian frontline soldiers operating ground robots and conventional first-person-view drones in the Donbas confirmed to POLITICO that Starlink services for Ukrainian units were abruptly restricted on Wednesday. 

“On the night of October 14, without prior notice to the Defense Forces, SpaceX unilaterally restricted the operation of Starshield terminals while in motion,” a Ukrainian defense ministry official told reporters in Kyiv. 

The official added that the problems occur at speeds varying from 72 kph to 161 kph, “depending on the specific vehicle and unit.”

The slowdown in Starlink terminals comes as U.S. President Donald Trump exerts fierce pressure on Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refineries. That follows his deal with Russian leader Vladimir Putin to release diesel onto global markets — part of Trump’s effort to reduce fuel prices ahead of next month’s U.S. midterm elections.

“Obviously, this action cannot be a coincidence and is associated with the current political situation,” Ukrainian presidential adviser Serhii Beskrestnov said in a Facebook post.

Asked about the rising American pressure on Ukraine, EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius said at a POLITICO event on Wednesday: “Political development sometimes makes strange influence. Elections are coming.”

“We are quite dependent on American space capabilities,” Kubilius acknowledged. “The answer to that situation is to develop our own capabilities.”

The Starlink slowdown was condemned by one of Ukraine’s key European allies.

“Hey, @elonmusk, big man, are you playing politics with your products again? As your European customers, we are watching you,” wrote Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski.

Ukraine depends on Starlink

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Starlink has become central to Kyiv’s war effort. In the spring of 2022, Ukrainian defenders trapped in the besieged city of Mariupol used satellites operated by SpaceX to send messages to the outside world. Ukrainian units relied on the system to coordinate operations during the fierce urban fighting around Bakhmut in 2023.

To this day, soldiers use Starlink to rapidly adjust artillery fire and navigate naval drones during attacks on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine’s former army chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, once praised the terminals for their “extraordinary utility.”

That reliance always carried risk. In the early months of the war, Starlink reportedly shut off terminals that were going to be used in a naval attack on the Russian fleet.

But SpaceX has also acted to favor Ukraine. In February, SpaceX shut down access to Starlink terminals being used illegally by Russia, causing immediate chaos. Ukraine then ramped its own use of the terminals.

Kyiv’s armed forces began widely equipping medium-range strike drones with Starlink terminals. Without them, operations would become considerably more complex. The military would, for example, have to calculate terrain elevations and antenna availability itself and install additional communications equipment.

“Starlink allows you not to have to deal with radio physics,” a Ukrainian officer with the call sign Jura said in August. “Starlink allows operators to maintain a live video connection with a drone until shortly before impact.”

Starlink can also provide so-called “synthetic GPS coordinates,” which can help drones navigate when conventional GPS signals are jammed.

But Ukrainian officers feared that decisions made in Washington or in the executive offices of American companies could suddenly weaken Ukraine.

“Many of my colleagues and I myself are very nervous about the question of how we would operate without Starlink,” Jura said. “We have discussed this question several times among our officers: ‘What if Elon Musk or someone at SpaceX switches it off?'”

As Trump has ramped up pressure on Kyiv in recent weeks, Ukrainian officers reported growing problems with Starlink.

One Ukrainian drone pilot, who operates medium-range strike drones, reported severe connectivity problems on Sept. 11 and 12, as well as further disruptions on Sept. 17. He said soldiers from several Ukrainian units had experienced similar problems.

The incidents occurred shortly after U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had concluded visits to Kyiv and Moscow. “After few days, the normal work with Starlink come back. But I believe that was the signal,” the pilot said.

He argued that Russian jamming equipment could not plausibly have produced such geographically consistent disruptions across multiple sectors of the front.

“So that was, I guess, administered from some office,” he said. POLITICO could not independently establish whether the disruptions resulted from deliberate restrictions imposed by the American satellite provider or another technical cause.

The incidents have reinforced concerns among Ukrainian military personnel about their dependence on American-controlled technology.

“The reason is politics and the American option to ‘switch off’ or critically decrease” U.S. systems, the pilot said.

Veronika Melkozerova reported from Kyiv. Daniella Cheslow and Audrey Decker contributed reporting.

This article has been updated.

WARSAW — Ukraine has more leverage than a year ago — and European leaders are warning Donald Trump not to squander it by pressuring Kyiv to ease up on Russia.

“In less than two years we went from the stage of no cards to the stage of don’t play your cards,” Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha told an audience at the Warsaw Security Conference. “That’s a true achievement.”

Last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was ambushed in the Oval Office by Trump, who ridiculed him for having “no cards” to play against Russia.

Trump’s recent demand that Zelenskyy “better damn well stop” Ukraine’s refinery attacks, and his call for Ukraine to install a new leader, amount to a recognition that Kyiv does indeed have significant leverage in the fight.

Kyiv’s refinery campaign is helping create a growing fuel shortage across Russia and is also harming the Kremlin’s ability to finance the war. But European leaders fear that Trump’s desperation to lower fuel prices ahead of next month’s U.S. midterm elections by pressuring Kyiv to stop its attacks could weaken Ukraine’s hand without persuading Russia to end the war.

Sybiha’s comments drew loud applause at the Warsaw conference and underscored growing tensions among Kyiv, Washington and Ukraine’s European allies after Trump said the U.S. had agreed with Vladimir Putin to buy Russian diesel.

The dispute between Washington and Kyiv overshadowed a Warsaw event that is normally strongly pro-American, given Poland’s status as a key U.S. ally.

“Ministers and heads of state won’t say so outright what they think about the Americans, but they certainly think a lot of things — the negotiations with Putin are yet another stab in the back for the Ukrainians,” said a French lawmaker, speaking on condition of being granted anonymity.

“You end the war by persuading the aggressor to limit his level of ambition, not by asking the victim to capitulate,” said Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski.

His German counterpart Johann Wadephul underlined that Berlin is pushing the Trump administration to fully impose energy sanctions approved by the U.S. Congress.

On Sep. 18, Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Russia and Iran Sanctions Act of 2026, codifying existing US sanctions against Russia and expanding the scope for applying secondary sanctions, tariffs and restrictions, including against the energy sector.

“This is not the time to lower the sanctions regime, but to strengthen it,” Wadephul said.

U.K. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband echoed that call, saying Trump should exert pressure on Russia to agree to an energy ceasefire under which both warring nations would stop hitting each other’s oil, gas, electricity and other assets.

Russia has so far refused to take such a step.

“Let us take seriously this issue of the energy ceasefire that President Trump has talked about, not simply a refinery ceasefire but a broad energy ceasefire, because in the last week alone we’ve seen 200 Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure,” Miliband said.

Trump pressures Ukraine

The U.S. president said on Monday that Putin is keener to end the fighting than Zelenskyy — despite the Kremlin not agreeing to any ceasefire.

“I think actually Putin wants to make a deal more than Zelenskyy,” Trump said.

Since Trump announced an energy ceasefire — blindsiding both Kyiv and Moscow — Ukraine has paused bombing Russian refineries even as Russian attacks continue.

While Trump wants the attacks to stop, Ukraine’s European allies are keen to cripple Russia’s war effort.

“Ukraine is attacking refineries, which is having an effect, and data centers, which is also having an effect,” Sikorski said. He also called on Poland’s MAGA-aligned President Karol Nawrocki to use his influence with Trump “to explain to him that Putin is the aggressor and Zelenskyy is the victim of aggression.”

Wadephul added that he had talked to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during the U.N. General Assembly in New York last month, and saw no interest from him in ending the war.

“A lot of people in Europe and especially in Germany were asking us and me, ‘Why don’t you talk to the Russians?’ So now I had that conversation, and you saw the result,” he said. “It’s a very dire result. And it shows that Russia right now is not ready for ceasefire.”

During the same Warsaw event, Sybiha was forced to deny rumors that Washington may have stopped sharing intelligence with Kyiv in retaliation for its campaign of deep strikes against Russian oil refineries.

“You are asking me if we are getting intelligence data from the American side. Yes, we continue this cooperation,” he said. 

Concerns about a potential cut-off in U.S. intelligence grew on Tuesday after Ukraine’s threat detection system failed to detect ballistic missiles that battered Kyiv overnight. Sybiha said the failure was due to a “special type of weaponry which was used by the Russian side.”

Zelenskyy also underlined the need for continued intelligence sharing. “There was also a rather treacherous ballistic missile strike on Kyiv — five missiles that hit civilian infrastructure. Unfortunately, there was no warning from our partners regarding this strike. Intelligence on Russian ballistic missile launches helps save lives.”

Sybiha stressed that Kyiv needs to continue strengthening its ability to fend off Russia’s constant air attacks while Ukraine’s troops push back against Russian forces on the front lines.

“The future of Europe and the global security architecture is now being decided in Ukraine,” he said.

Chris Lunday and Laura Kayali contributed to this report.

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